Understanding Syria | 8 Dec 24
Articles on the current state of Syria, and what led to the chaos.
👋 Hello Reader, I’m working on a separate, normal “Top 10 of the week” edition, but had enough articles on Syria that I’m putting out this separate edition.
As of this morning, Bashar al-Assad has resigned as the President of Syria, and left the country.
Below are some resources to help you understand what is going on there, and how it might turn out. I included a few similar maps in this edition, but did so because I thought each added a different detail worth seeing.
Of note, Critical Threats and the Institute for the Study of War are organizations that work in tandem to provide salient, timely updates on conflicts around the world. You can look at their individual websites for free reports and maps, as well as independent research. Here is their report on Syria, in the form of an Iran update, as of yesterday. More up to date articles are below.
I searched for videos on the history of Syria, and there are quite a few of them, but I didn’t have a good feeling for who produced them, nor were they all up to date, so I’ll let you do your own searching/watching of videos, if that’s the medium you prefer.
Lastly, I thought the quote from the Council on Foreign Relations article most remarkable:
Clearly, the armed opposition to Assad has taken advantage of the fact that Israel has done significant damage to Iran’s so-called axis of resistance, especially Hezbollah. A greatly weakened Hezbollah and a Russia distracted by its fight in Ukraine make it harder to defend the Assad regime. That does not mean that Hezbollah or the Russians will not help. Both are deeply invested in Syria, but they do not have the forces they had in 2015 and 2016 that were used to crush the insurgency.
Now, on to the articles:
Assad Flees to Russia From Syria After Rebels Take Damascus: Live Updates (WSJ)
Syrian rebels said they had freed the capital, Damascus, from President Bashar al-Assad’s dictatorship after a week of stunning military advances. Assad stepped down and fled the country after talks with opposition forces.
Assad: He and his family are in Moscow, where Russia has granted them political asylum, according to state news agency TASS.
The rebels: Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, who is the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, one of the largest rebel groups, arrived in Damascus Sunday and celebrated the rebel victory.
Reactions: Residents in Damascus and Homs celebrated in the streets. Some entered the presidential palace.
What’s next: Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali said he was ready to cooperate with any leadership chosen by the people. President Biden, who leaves office next month, vowed to help the Syrian people as they decide how to govern themselves.
What Syria’s Revived Civil War Means for the Region (CFR)
The surprise rebel offensive that has seized Aleppo and threatens other regime-held territories could mark a further weakening of Iran's regional sway but also spur a new cycle of violence and instability. How did opposition fighters gain control of Syria’s second-largest city eight years after they were routed? How significant is this? During the height of the conflict in Syria nearly a decade ago, Aleppo was divided between government-controlled and rebel areas, but with the help of Russian airpower and the Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah, the regime of President Bashar al-Assad was able to regain control over the entire city by the end of 2016. Since about that time, conflict in Syria was static with the rebels largely confined to the Idlib governate, which is adjacent to the Aleppo governate. Clearly, the armed opposition to Assad has taken advantage of the fact that Israel has done significant damage to Iran’s so-called axis of resistance, especially Hezbollah. A greatly weakened Hezbollah and a Russia distracted by its fight in Ukraine make it harder to defend the Assad regime. That does not mean that Hezbollah or the Russians will not help. Both are deeply invested in Syria, but they do not have the forces they had in 2015 and 2016 that were used to crush the insurgency.
Who are the rebels in Syria? (BBC)
The leader of the Islamist militant group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, is very much putting himself forward as the figurehead of a post-Assad future in Syria. Without his group's sudden, devastating advance on Aleppo and then into Hama and Homs from their powerbase in the north-western province of Idlb, there is no doubt that the tumultuous events of the past week and a half would not have happened. But other rebel groups rose up too - and it was most likely that sense of the entirety of Syria turning on the regime that so swiftly led to its collapse. Among these groups - some now in Damascus - are rebel factions that once operated under the banner of the Free Syrian Army from southern towns and cities that had been dormant for years, but where the spark of rebellion had never entirely been sniffed out. Over to the east, Kurdish-led forces have benefited from the collapse of the Syrian army to take full control of the main city, Deir El-Zour. In the vast Syrian desert, remnants of the so-called Islamic State could also look to take advantage of the situation. And in the far north along the Turkish border, the Syrian National Army - backed by Ankara - could also prove to be a significant player in what happens next. How Syria's immediate political future develops will not only depend on the organisation's intentions and capabilities, as well as the competing claims and pressures from other groups, but also on the part that the major outside powers that have been most closely involved in the country's recent history will play. They include most notably Iran and Russia - who supported President Assad - and Turkey - which has backed rebel groups -, as well as the US which still maintains a military presence in the Kurdish-held east of the country.
US Launches Self-Defense Airstrikes, A-10s Fly over Syria amid Escalating Civil War (Air and Space Forces)
The U.S. carried out airstrikes on Dec. 3 to defend U.S. forces in eastern Syria, the Pentagon said. The operation destroyed three truck-mounted rocket launchers, mortars, an armored personnel carrier, and a T-64 tank. The strikes were intended to defend American forces at their outpost and not to intervene in the civil war in Syria, where a rebel group has seized Aleppo and is attacking Syrian forces loyal to President Bashar Al Assad. Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Patrick S. Ryder said that the “self-defense strike” took place after rockets and mortars were fired toward American troops. The strikes were the second time in recent days that the U.S. has used force to defend its troops in eastern Syria. On Nov. 29, A-10 Thunderbolt II attack aircraft, which have been repeatedly deployed to bolster airpower in the region since spring 2023, struck militants that were getting ready to launch rockets at the American position, Ryder said.
Iran Begins to Evacuate Military Officials and Personnel From Syria (NYT)
Iran began to evacuate its military commanders and personnel from Syria on Friday, according to regional officials and three Iranian officials, in a sign of Iran’s inability to help keep President Bashar al-Assad in power as he faces a resurgent rebel offensive. Among those evacuated to neighboring Iraq and Lebanon were top commanders of Iran’s powerful Quds Forces, the external branch of the Revolutionary Guards Corps, the officials said. The move signaled a remarkable turn for Mr. al-Assad, whose government Iran has backed throughout Syria’s 13-year civil war, and for Iran, which has used Syria as a key route to supply weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
To end this edition, here’s a quote from Adam Roberts of The Economist in his email this morning:
The sudden ending of Syria’s vile regime carries similar resonance for me as other turning points in modern international politics. Some—the fall of the Berlin Wall, or the toppling (and execution) of the Ceausescus in Romania, both in 1989—led directly to improvement in the lives of millions. The end of repression is undoubtedly to be cheered. I still recall how ordinary Syrians whispered anxiously to me and my wife as we travelled, over two decades ago, in Aleppo, Homs, Hama, Daraa and Palmyra. People were so fearful that Mr Assad’s spies and informers were everywhere that they would not say a word about Syrian politics. Yet they were cut off and desperate to talk about the outside world.
But look back at other, similar moments of political high drama, and the sudden removal of repression often triggers violent disorder. The more repressive a place has been, the less able it is to cope with whatever comes next. There may be too few social or political structures to help politics to function. After Qaddafi fell, Libya suffered years of brutal civil war. Repression also held Yugoslavia together until it didn’t, and bloody conflict followed. Iraq, after Saddam Hussein’s long and nasty rule, fell into a bloody mire (despite the presence of American forces). The collapse of the Soviet-backed regime in Afghanistan at the start of the 1990s was the spark for decades of war.
Only time will tell how this turns out.
The Curator
Two resources to help you be a more discerning reader:
AllSides - https://www.allsides.com/unbiased-balanced-news
Media Bias Chart - https://www.adfontesmedia.com/
Caveat: Even these resources/charts are biased. Who says that the system they use to describe news sources is accurate? Still, hopefully you find them useful as a basic guide or for comparison.