This week in the news | 17 Feb 24

News from the past week, and a few other things.

Feb 17, 2024

👋 Hello Reader, I hope you had a great week.

Below you’ll find the “quick shot”—a supercharged summary of summaries, followed by the “slow brew”—longer summaries with select graphics, and comments from me.

THE QUICK SHOT 🚀

A supercharged summary of summaries

A lock icon (🔒) indicates articles behind a paywall, and a chart icon (📊) indicates an informative chart/graphic in “Slow Brew.”

World

Shift from El Nino to La Nina portends rains in Asia, dryness in Americas (Reuters)

North America

Latin America

Argentina’s Power Duo Meets at the Vatican After Trading Insults (Bloomberg🔒)
Argentina’s Milei Blasts Inflation Data, Focused on Reforms (Bloomberg🔒) 📊

Europe

European countries are turning to 'selective immigration' to mend labor shortages (Le Monde) 📊
UK economy falls into recession, adding to Sunak's election challenge (Reuters) 📊
Ukraine says it sank Russian large landing warship in Black Sea (Reuters)
Russia Lures Migrant Workers Into Ukraine, Only to Put Many on the Front Line (Bloomberg🔒)
Ukraine Security Assistance (Defense.gov) 📊
Finland Elects Alexander Stubb President as It Ushers in NATO Era (NYT🔒)

Middle East

Israeli airstrikes killed 10 Lebanese civilians in a single day. Hezbollah has vowed to retaliate (AP)
Israel, Hezbollah Strikes Intensify as Fears Grow of New Front (Bloomberg🔒)
Israel frees two hostages, Palestinian TV says 74 killed in assault (Reuters)
Israel Proposes Rafah Evacuation Despite U.S. Concerns (WSJ🔒)
Egypt Builds Walled Enclosure on Border as Israeli Offensive Looms (WSJ🔒) 📊
Israel Pulls Out of Peace Talks Over ‘Delusional’ Hamas Demands (Bloomberg🔒)
A Tunnel Offers Clues to How Hamas Uses Gaza’s Hospitals (NYT🔒)
Iran’s nuclear hints draw UN rebuke (Semafor)
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard On The Ground In Yemen To Assist Houthis, U.S. Official Says (Forbes🔒)
India's Modi opens Hindu temple in Muslim UAE as election nears (Reuters)
Can MBS Still Remake Saudi Arabia? (Foreign Affairs)

Africa

U.S.-China Tensions Have a New Front: A Naval Base in Africa (WSJ🔒)

Asia-Pacific

Alexei Navalny, Russian opposition leader, dies in Arctic jail (Reuters)
Japan unexpectedly slips into recession, Germany now world's third-biggest economy (Reuters) 📊
China Revives Socialist Ideas to Fix Its Real-Estate Crisis (WSJ🔒)
China’s Shipyards Are Ready for a Protracted War. America’s Aren’t. (WSJ🔒) 📊
Indonesia president congratulates poll winner Prabowo, markets cheer (Reuters)
Five reasons why Indonesia’s election matters (Economist🔒) 📊
Its Forces Depleted, Myanmar Junta Says It Will Enforce a Military Draft (NYT🔒)
Pakistan election: Imran Khan's rivals PML-N and PPP reach deal to form government (BBC)

Space

Government

On take two, House impeaches DHS secretary (GovExec)
Biden campaign joins TikTok in an effort to reach younger voters (WP🔒)
Trump Fraud Trial Penalty Will Exceed $450 Million (NYT🔒)

Defense

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin released from hospital (Politico)
U.S. conducted cyberattack on suspected Iranian spy ship (NBC)
New Commands, Ranks, and More: Big Changes for Air Force & Space Force (Air & Space Forces Magazine)
Air Force Warrant Officer Program to Focus on IT, Cyber Career Fields (Air & Space Forces Magazine)
Europe Is Boosting Military Spending. It’s Still Not Enough. (WSJ🔒) 📊

Economy

Inflation Was Far Worse Than Expected In January (Forbes🔒)
Disabled Americans Propel a Third of Post-Covid Workforce Gains (Bloomberg🔒)
Another ‘Great Retirement’ Wave Hits the US After Stocks Rally (Bloomberg🔒) 📊
The U.S. Government Will Soon Spend More on Interest Payments Than Defense (WSJ🔒) 📊

Business

Maersk Says Red Sea Detours Could Extend To Second Half Of 2024 (Forbes🔒)
Have Uber and Lyft Finally Found a Way to Make Ride-Sharing Profitable? (WSJ🔒)
Musk Says SpaceX Has Moved State Of Incorporation To Texas Amid Feud With Delaware (Forbes🔒)
Airbus Extends Lead Over Boeing Amid Archrival’s Stumbles (WSJ🔒) 📊
Cotton Demand From US Textile Mills Drops to Lowest Since 1885 (Bloomberg🔒) 📊
New N.Y. Law Mandates More Transparency in Credit Card Surcharges (NYT🔒)
The Sneaker Resale Market Is Broken (Business of Fashion)

Crypto

Bitcoin Passes $50,000 Amid Growing ETF Momentum (Forbes🔒) 📊

Energy

Gas Prices Hit Three-Month High As Oil Surges Amid Middle East Conflicts (Forbes🔒) 📊

Auto

The Cost of Car Ownership Is Getting Painful (WSJ🔒) 📊

Real Estate

Cash-Flush Buyers Dip Into Distressed Commercial Real Estate (WSJ🔒)
Mortgage Rates Rise (Freddie Mac) 📊
New Single Family Homes Continue to Get Smaller (Parcllabs) 📊

Personal Finance

How Americans define a middle-class lifestyle — and why they can’t reach it (WP🔒) 📊
Stocks Are at Records, but Are They Expensive? These Models Have an Answer (WSJ🔒) 📊

Cyber

Artificial Intelligence

Life

When It Comes to Sex, My Generation Is Screwed (The Free Press)
Why You Should Get Married (The Free Press)
Saving Marriage at Scale (City Journal)

Education

The Small University Endowment That Is Beating the Ivy League (WSJ🔒) 📊
62% of Americans Lack a College Degree. Can They Solve the Labor Shortage? (WSJ🔒) 📊

Health

OPINION | To Cure Burnout, Embrace Seasonality (NYT🔒)

Food & Drink

We’re Not Eating Enough Bacon, and That’s a Problem for the Economy (WSJ🔒) 📊
Chocolate Block: Cocoa prices have surged to all-time highs (Chartr) 📊

Nature

California’s war on plastic bag use seems to have backfired. Lawmakers are trying again (LA Times)

Travel

These Dogs Ended Up on a No-Fly List. Their Owners Are Baffled. (WSJ🔒)

Art

UK Public Art Database Will Digitally Record More Than 5,000 Murals, Including Works By Banksy (ARTnews)

Sports

Super Bowl LVIII makes history as most-watched American telecast ever (Axios)
Caitlin Clark sets NCAA women’s basketball scoring record with 3,528th career point (The Athletic)
Marathon world record holder Kiptum dies in road accident (Reuters) 📊

THE SLOW BREW ☕

A more relaxed approach to the summaries.

World

Shift from El Nino to La Nina portends rains in Asia, dryness in Americas (Reuters)

After a strong El Nino, global weather is poised to transition to La Nina in the second half of 2024, a pattern typically bringing higher precipitation to Australia, Southeast Asia and India and drier weather to grain and oilseed producing regions of the Americas, meteorologists and agricultural analysts said. While it is too early predict its intensity or impact on crops, meteorologists said, a shift towards a mild occurrence of La Nina, when surface ocean waters cool off the tropical west coast of South America, is looming.

North America

Two Juveniles Charged in Connection With Kansas City Chiefs Rally Shooting (WSJ🔒)

Officials in Jackson County, which includes most of Kansas City, charged two juveniles in connection with a shooting at a Chiefs’ Super Bowl rally Wednesday that killed one person and wounded 22.

Police kill female shooter at Joel Osteen’s Lakewood Church; 5-year-old injured (WP🔒)

A woman wielding a long gun is dead and the child who was with her is in critical condition after the woman walked into a Texas evangelical megachurch on Sunday afternoon in Houston and opened fire, police said. Off-duty law enforcement officers confronted the woman shortly after she entered the massive Lakewood Church building just before 2 p.m., when the church was changing between English and Spanish-speaking services, according to Houston Police Chief Troy Finner.

Hawaii Rejects Second Amendment Interpretation in Landmark Decision (MSN)

The Supreme Court of Hawaii has ruled a man can be prosecuted for carrying a gun in public without a permit in the state, overturning a lower court ruling that concluded this would violate his rights under the Second Amendment.

Californians Are Dreaming of Lower Taxes (Bloomberg🔒) 📊

Some Americans like to mock France and Sweden for their high taxes. Yet California — whose economy is bigger than that of both countries — has comparable tax rates, when federal and state tolls are combined, and a new study suggests that they are causing some top earners to leave the state entirely. This is an issue for more than America’s 39 million Californians. Despite the long-held consensus among many analysts that state-level tax rates don’t matter much, some states seemed to have reached a point at which tax rates are driving many residents’ decisions. That raises the question of whether taxes can continue to rise without significant negative economic consequences. California’s highest income tax rate is 13.3%. That is in addition to a top federal tax rate of 37%. California also has a state sales tax rate of 7.25%, and many localities impose a smaller sales tax. So if a wealthy person earns and spends labor income in the state of California, the tax rate at the margin could approach 60%. Then there is the corporate state income tax rate of 8.84%, some of which is passed along to consumers through higher prices. That increases the tax burden further yet.

Biden blocks deportation of Palestinians in US, citing conditions in Gaza (Reuters)

President Joe Biden has signed an order shielding Palestinians in the United States from deportation for the next 18 months, the White House said on Wednesday, citing deteriorating humanitarian conditions in the Gaza Strip The move grants "deferred enforced departure" to an estimated 6,000 Palestinians, a Biden administration official said. In a statement, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said that following "the horrific October 7 terrorist attack by Hamas against Israel, and Israel’s ensuing military response, humanitarian conditions in Gaza have significantly deteriorated."

Chinese migrants are the fastest growing group crossing from Mexico into U.S. at southern border (CBS News)

The number of migrants arriving at the southern border is unprecedented. Last year, U.S. Customs and Border Protection recorded two-and-a-half million instances of detaining or turning away people attempting to cross into the United States from Mexico. So what's the fastest growing group among them? Chinese migrants. Yes, you heard that right…Chinese. We saw large groups, including many from the middle class, come through a 4-foot gap at the end of a border fence 60 miles east of San Diego. The illegal entryway is a new route for those hoping to live in America. Last year, U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported 37,000 Chinese citizens were apprehended crossing illegally from Mexico into the U.S.…that's 50 times more than two years earlier. Many of the migrants told us they made the journey to escape China's increasingly repressive political climate and sluggish economy.

Denver Is Furious That Washington Can’t Fix the Border (WSJ🔒)

This city of 713,000 people has absorbed nearly 40,000 migrants in a little over a year, more per capita than any other U.S. city. It is second only to New York in the total number of foreigners who have arrived since 2022. The influx is straining the city’s budget, crowding schools and hospitals and swelling the ranks of the city’s homeless population. Denver has spent more than $42 million in the past year to house and feed the new arrivals. Public schools have ballooned by more than 3,000 students, creating a budget shortfall of roughly $17.5 million. The city’s safety-net hospital has seen at least 9,000 migrant patients in the past year, costing at least $10 million in unreimbursed care.

ICE Is Reportedly Considering Mass Releases Amid $700M Budget Gap (Forbes🔒)

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement is considering releasing thousands of immigrants in detention, the Washington Post reported Wednesday, a week after the Senate failed to approve a bipartisan bill that would have addressed a $700 million budget deficit for the agency. Citing four officials at ICE and the Department of Homeland Security, the Post reported that last week’s failure of the border bill has ICE officials considering cutting costs by releasing thousands of immigrants and reducing detention levels by 16,000—from 38,000 to 22,000. The Post reported that, according to ICE officials, the $700 million budget gap is the largest projected deficit in the agency’s recent history.

Immigration Wave Delivers Economic Windfall. But There’s a Catch. (WSJ🔒) 📊

The influx of millions of unauthorized migrants in recent years has sparked a political firestorm that has paralyzed Congress and consumed election campaigns. But it also has a benefit: a bigger, faster-growing economy. The precise scale of that economic boost was laid out in the Congressional Budget Office’s latest long-term budget and economic outlook, released Feb. 7. It estimates the labor force will be larger by 1.7 million potential workers in 2024 and 5.2 million more—about 3%—in 2033 than the nonpartisan agency expected one year ago. Gross domestic product—the value of all goods and services produced in a year—should be 2.1% larger. Because those extra workers will be paying taxes and generating economic activity that also yields tax revenue, the federal deficit should be smaller at 6.4% of GDP in 2033, rather than 7.3% as projected last year. But a bigger economy doesn’t necessarily equate to a better economy. The latest group of migrants differs from previous cohorts in ways that could put modest downward pressure on wages and productivity in the short term. Before the pandemic, foreign-born adults were almost as likely as the overall population to hold at least a bachelor’s degree. This was mainly because of higher educational attainment among immigrants from Asia, Africa and Europe, which offset lower levels of schooling among people from Mexico and Central America. Highly educated individuals are thought to facilitate innovation, raising the productivity of all workers and ultimately their wages. Data on the most recent arrivals remains sparse. But while researchers have documented migrants from around the world at southern border crossings, the biggest cohorts are thought to be from poorer communities in Latin America. More important, a much smaller share of the latest immigrants have legal authorization to work in the U.S. than those who arrived in the previous decade. That doesn’t mean they will remain outside the labor force, Swagel said, but it does make it likely that they will skew toward lower-wage jobs in part because lack of work authorization limits access to many occupations. By increasing the lower-paid share of the labor force, the CBO says the immigration surge will create a modest drag on average wages. It has reduced by 1.7% its forecast for the employment cost index, a measure of private-sector pay and benefits, in 2033.

National Archives closes after climate change protesters dump red powder on U.S. Constitution (NBC News)

The National Archives rotunda and galleries in Washington, D.C., closed to the public early on Wednesday afternoon after two apparent climate change protesters dumped red powder on the case holding the U.S. Constitution. The encasement protected the Constitution from any damage, the National Archives said in a press release. The agency’s conservators are evaluating the damage to the rotunda.

Latin America

Argentina’s Power Duo Meets at the Vatican After Trading Insults (Bloomberg🔒)

Javier Milei was in the middle of his first television interview as Argentina’s president-elect when an adviser abruptly handed him a mobile phone. The cameras stopped rolling. Pope Francis was on the line. Milei and Francis embraced Sunday on the sidelines of a ceremony at St Peter’s Basilica to canonize Argentina’s first female saint. “It was very strong, I can’t believe it,” Milei remarked afterward, Italian newswire Ansa reported citing Argentine media. Milei sat in the front row, making the sign of the cross at the svtart. The president and the pope will hold a bilateral meeting at the Vatican on Monday.

Argentina’s Milei Blasts Inflation Data, Focused on Reforms (Bloomberg🔒) 📊

President Javier Milei blasted Argentina’s monthly inflation figure of 20.6% in January as “horrendous” even as it came in slightly below estimates, adding that the result should be seen in context. Milei’s government had planned for a hyperinflation scenario given annual inflation of more than 200%, he said in a television interview with LN+ Wednesday night. Consumer prices rose 254% in January on an annual basis. The president’s comments, a little more than two months after he took office, come as his plan to squelch soaring prices fell flat in Argentina’s opposition-controlled congress where the government failed to garner the necessary legislative support for its cornerstone reform bill.

Europe

European countries are turning to 'selective immigration' to mend labor shortages (Le Monde) 📊

When it comes to immigration, European governments are juggling paradoxes. While illegal crossings of the European Union's external borders (380,000 in 2023, +17%) and asylum applications (806,000 from January to September 2023, +22%) are at their highest since 2015–2016, the 27 member states have adopted a raft of restrictive measures. Meanwhile in the UK, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is trying to deter arrivals across the Channel by transferring asylum seekers to Rwanda. Yet, at the same time, Europe's aging population is short of manpower. By the end of 2023, three-quarters of the continent's SMEs reported unsuccessful searches for personnel. Moreover, the trend is set to continue. According to Ylva Johansson, EU Home Affairs Commissioner, over the next six years, some 7 million workers will leave the job market. Business organizations in many countries are calling for solutions.

UK economy falls into recession, adding to Sunak's election challenge (Reuters) 📊

Britain's economy fell into a recession in the second half of 2023, a tough backdrop ahead of this year's expected election for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak who has promised to boost growth. Gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.3% in the three months to December, having shrunk by 0.1% between July and September, official data showed. The fourth-quarter contraction was deeper than all economists' estimates in a Reuters poll, which had pointed to a 0.1% decline.

Ukraine says it sank Russian large landing warship in Black Sea (Reuters)

Ukraine destroyed a Russian landing warship off the coast of occupied Crimea in an operation with naval drones that breached the vessel's port side on Wednesday and caused it to sink, Kyiv's military spy agency and armed forces said. There was no immediate comment from Russia, which said earlier that it had destroyed six drones in the Black Sea. The Kremlin declined to comment.

Russia Lures Migrant Workers Into Ukraine, Only to Put Many on the Front Line (Bloomberg🔒)

Russia is relying on thousands of often-unwittingly recruited workers from neighboring countries to undertake the sprawling multi-billion-dollar reconstruction in the occupied territories of Ukraine. Job-seekers coming to Russia from former Soviet Union states are being sent to Ukraine to work on construction projects, but have at times wound up digging trenches and fighting on the battlefield. In the process, they risk running afoul of laws in their homelands that could land them in prison.

Ukraine Security Assistance (Defense.gov) 📊

NOTE: Link is an infographic from DoD. Document contains numerous graphics.

Finland Elects Alexander Stubb President as It Ushers in NATO Era (NYT🔒)

Finns elected the center-right politician Alexander Stubb as their new president on Sunday, in the first national election since the country joined NATO, filling a post that will be critical to shaping Finland’s role in the alliance at a time of increasingly fraught relations with Russia. The election might typically have gained little notice beyond the borders of the northern European country of 5.6 million people. But Finland, the newest member of NATO, shares the longest border with Russia — some 830 miles — and its politics have taken on special interest to its European and American allies as the geopolitical order shifts.

Middle East

Israeli airstrikes killed 10 Lebanese civilians in a single day. Hezbollah has vowed to retaliate (AP)

The civilian death toll from two Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon has risen to 10, Lebanese state media reported Thursday, making the previous day the deadliest in more than four months of cross-border exchanges. The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah has vowed to retaliate for Wednesday’s strikes, which hit in the city of Nabatiyeh and a village in southern Lebanon, just hours after projectiles from Lebanon killed an Israeli soldier.

Israel, Hezbollah Strikes Intensify as Fears Grow of New Front (Bloomberg🔒)

Hezbollah in Lebanon fired a barrage of rockets at Israel in retaliation for the killing a commander in one of the group’s elite units, a further escalation of this week’s cross-border fire that’s raising alarm of a wider war.

Israel frees two hostages, Palestinian TV says 74 killed in assault (Reuters)

Israel on Monday freed two Israeli-Argentine hostages held by Hamas in Rafah in a ferocious rescue operation that killed 74 Palestinians in the southern Gaza city where about one million civilians have sought refuge from months of bombardments. The mission by the Israeli military, the Shin Bet security service and a special police unit freed Fernando Simon Marman, 60, and Louis Hare, 70, the military said. They were among 250 people seized during the Oct. 7 raid on Israel by Hamas militants that triggered Israel's war on Gaza.

Israel Proposes Rafah Evacuation Despite U.S. Concerns (WSJ🔒)

Israel is proposing the creation of sprawling tent cities in Gaza as part of an evacuation plan to be funded by the U.S. and its Arab Gulf partners ahead of an impending invasion of a city in the strip’s south which Israel says is the last bastion of Hamas. The proposal, which was presented to Egypt in recent days, came as the Biden administration is warning Israel against going into Rafah without a strategy to protect civilians. A military operation in Rafah shouldn’t proceed without “a credible plan for ensuring the safety and support of more than one million people sheltering,” President Biden said Monday. Israeli officials have pushed back on the U.S. warnings, saying they must carry out a ground offensive in Rafah to eradicate Hamas. Early Monday local time, Israel conducted a rescue operation that freed two hostages in Rafah, where Israel says many of the remaining hostages captured during an Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack are being held.

Egypt Builds Walled Enclosure on Border as Israeli Offensive Looms (WSJ🔒) 📊

Egyptian authorities, fearful that an Israeli military push further into southern Gaza will set off a flood of refugees, are building an 8-square-mile walled enclosure in the Sinai Desert near the border, according to Egyptian officials and security analysts. For weeks, Egypt has sought to bolster security along the frontier to keep Palestinians out, deploying soldiers and armored vehicles and reinforcing fences. The massive new compound is part of contingency plans if large numbers of Gazans do manage to get in. More than 100,000 people could be accommodated in the camp, Egyptian officials said. It is surrounded by concrete walls and far from any Egyptian settlements. Large numbers of tents, as yet unassembled, have been delivered to the site, these people said. With Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying his army will need to fight Hamas in Rafah, a Palestinian city on the Egyptian border, Egyptian officials think a broad Israeli offensive could happen within weeks. In the event of a major exodus of Palestinians from Gaza, Egypt would seek to limit the number of refugees to well below the capacity of the area—ideally to around 50,000 to 60,000—Egyptian officials said.

Israel Pulls Out of Peace Talks Over ‘Delusional’ Hamas Demands (Bloomberg🔒)

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has opted not to send a delegation to Cairo for follow-up talks aimed at securing a cease-fire with Hamas, again dismissing the militant group’s demands as “delusional.” Israel is holding out for Hamas to change its position before taking any further role in negotiations, the PM’s office said Wednesday. The Iran-backed militant group has insisted on the total withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza in return for the release of hostages, something Netanyahu has categorically ruled out.

A Tunnel Offers Clues to How Hamas Uses Gaza’s Hospitals (NYT🔒)

Gaza’s hospitals have emerged as a focal point in Israel’s war with Hamas, with each side citing how the other has pulled the facilities into the conflict as proof of the enemy’s disregard for the safety of civilians. In four months of war, Israeli troops have entered several hospitals, including the Qatari Hospital, Kamal Adwan Hospital and Al-Rantisi Specialized Hospital for Children, to search for weapons and fighters. But Al-Shifa Hospital has taken on particular significance because it is Gaza’s largest medical facility, and because of Israel’s high-profile claims that Hamas leaders operated a command-and-control center beneath it. Hamas and the hospital’s staff, meanwhile, insisted it was only a medical center. Al-Shifa’s value as a military target was not immediately clear in the days after the Nov. 15 raid, even after the Israeli military released the tunnel video that was used to create the 3-D model seen here. But evidence examined by The New York Times suggests Hamas used the hospital for cover, stored weapons inside it and maintained a hardened tunnel beneath the complex that was supplied with water, power and air-conditioning.

Iran’s nuclear hints draw UN rebuke (Semafor)

Western officials are increasingly alarmed by recent claims by senior Iranian leaders that the country now possesses all the components and nuclear fuel required to produce atomic weapons. These officials told Semafor they are particularly focused on an interview broadcast Monday on Iranian state television with Ali Akbar Salehi, a former head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization and a chief negotiator involved in the 2015 agreement Tehran forged with the U.S. and global powers to limit Iran’s nuclear capabilities. The U.S.-educated Salehi is viewed as a relative moderate in the Islamic Republic’s theocratic system. “We have [crossed] all the thresholds of nuclear science and technology,” Salehi said in the interview. “Here’s an example: Imagine what a car needs; it needs a chassis, an engine, a steering wheel, a gearbox. You’re asking if we’ve made the gearbox? I say yes. Have we made the engine? Yes, but each one serves its own purpose.”

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard On The Ground In Yemen To Assist Houthis, U.S. Official Says (Forbes🔒)

In a bombshell revelation, a U.S. Navy official revealed on CBS News’ “60 Minutes” that Iranian Revolutionary Guard troops are working on the ground with Houthi rebels in Yemen, providing assistance to the group that has escalated attacks on U.S. military targets in the region and shipping vessels in the Red Sea, as U.S. forces step up counter-measures amid fears of an escalating Middle Eastern conflict.

India's Modi opens Hindu temple in Muslim UAE as election nears (Reuters)

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi opened a grand Hindu temple in the United Arab Emirates on Wednesday, capping off a two-day visit to the Muslim nation that is home to around 3.5 million Indians. A day earlier, tens of thousands of Indians filled a soccer stadium in the capital Abu Dhabi, cheering on Modi who is seeking a rare third term in India's upcoming general election.

Can MBS Still Remake Saudi Arabia? (Foreign Affairs)

For Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the war in Gaza has created a predicament. Gaza is ruled by Hamas, an Islamist movement that is allied and closely coordinating with Iran and its proxies, who wish to see the destruction of the House of Saud. But given how popular the Palestinian cause is with Saudi citizens, MBS must side with the Palestinians, who are seen throughout the Arab and Muslim worlds as the victims of Israeli aggression and occupation. The Saudi government wants to bolster its security, and it hopes that by normalizing relations with Israel, it can establish a security alliance with the United States and Washington’s regional allies. But Riyadh will not forge such ties when Israel is bombing Gazan civilians and refusing to recognize the Palestinians’ right to their own state. Yet normalization was not, and is not, the only way for the Saud family dynasty to strengthen its hand. The regime can also protect itself and its interests by building a more powerful economy and shifting the country’s domestic ideology. To that end, it is actively developing new non-oil-related sectors, such as tourism, mining, logistics, manufacturing, technology, finance, and transportation. It is also shifting its source of legitimacy, which has long rested on the monarchy’s relationship to a fundamentalist interpretation of Islam, commonly known as Wahhabism, and on its role as the custodian of Islam’s most holy sites. Increasingly, the monarchy is instead seeking to legitimize its rule by presenting itself as protector of the Saudi people and promoting a strong sense of nationalism that places Saudi interests first. The resulting changes encompass virtually every aspect of the country’s society, from the legal and educational systems to the roles of religious authorities and women. Instead of committing itself to the spread of “true Islam,” the monarchy’s legitimacy rests on its ability to bring unity, peace, and prosperity to its region. The war in Gaza has complicated this shift.

NOTE: Having spent some time in the Middle East this past year, I found this article to be pretty accurate.

Africa

U.S.-China Tensions Have a New Front: A Naval Base in Africa (WSJ🔒)

In August, Ali Bongo, then-president of the Central African nation of Gabon, made a startling revelation to a top White House aide: During a meeting at his presidential palace, Bongo admitted he had secretly promised Chinese leader Xi Jinping that Beijing could station military forces on Gabon’s Atlantic Ocean coast. Alarmed, U.S. principal deputy national security adviser Jon Finer urged Bongo to retract the offer, according to an American national security official. The U.S. considers the Atlantic its strategic front yard and sees a permanent Chinese military presence there—particularly a naval base, where Beijing could rearm and repair warships—as a serious threat to American security.

Asia-Pacific

Alexei Navalny, Russian opposition leader, dies in Arctic jail (Reuters)

Russia's most prominent opposition leader Alexei Navalny collapsed and died on Friday after a walk at the "Polar Wolf" Arctic penal colony where he was serving a long jail term, the Russian prison service said. Navalny, a 47-year-old former lawyer, rose to prominence more than a decade ago with blogs on what he said was vast corruption and opulence among the "crooks and thieves" of Russia's elite. The Federal Penitentiary Service of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District said in a statement that Navalny felt unwell after a walk at the IK-3 penal colony in Kharp, about 1,900 km (1,200 miles) north east of Moscow into the Arctic Circle. Supporters had cast Navalny as a future leader of Russia who would one day walk free from jail to take the presidency, though many opposition activists had expressed fears that he was in grave danger in the Russian prison system.

Japan unexpectedly slips into recession, Germany now world's third-biggest economy (Reuters) 📊

Japan unexpectedly slipped into a recession at the end of last year, losing its title as the world's third-biggest economy to Germany and raising doubts about when the central bank would begin to exit its decade-long ultra-loose monetary policy. Some analysts are warning of another contraction in the current quarter as weak demand in China, sluggish consumption and production halts at a unit of Toyota Motor Corp, opens new tab all point to a challenging path to an economic recovery.

China Revives Socialist Ideas to Fix Its Real-Estate Crisis (WSJ🔒)

China’s massive property market is crumbling. Xi Jinping wants to revive socialist ideas about housing and put the state back in charge. Home prices across China are falling, developers have gone bust and people are doubting whether real estate will ever be a viable investment again. The meltdown is dragging down growth and spooking investors worldwide. Under the new strategy, the Communist Party would take over a larger share of the market, which for years has been dominated by the private sector. Underpinning it are two major programs, according to policy advisers involved in the discussions and recent government announcements. One involves the state buying up distressed private-market projects and converting them into homes that the government would rent out or, in some cases, sell. The other calls for the state itself to build more subsidized housing for low- and middle-income families. The goal, the policy advisers say, is to increase the share of housing built by the state for low-cost rental or sale under restricted conditions to at least 30% of China’s housing stock, from 5% or so today.

China’s Shipyards Are Ready for a Protracted War. America’s Aren’t. (WSJ🔒) 📊

China emerged as a global power by turning itself into the world’s factory floor. It is expanding that power, and its military might, with another striking industrial feat: becoming the world’s shipyard. More than half of the world’s commercial shipbuilding output came from China last year—making it the top global shipmaker by a wide margin. The once-prolific shipyards of the West that helped forge empires, expand trade and win wars have shriveled. Europe accounts for just 5% of the world’s output, while the U.S. contributes next to nothing. Most of what China doesn’t build comes from South Korea and Japan. “The scale [of China’s shipbuilding] is just almost hard to fathom,” said Thomas Shugart, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security whose research focuses on maritime competition. “The degree to which it dwarfs American shipbuilding is just unbelievable.”

Indonesia president congratulates poll winner Prabowo, markets cheer (Reuters)

Indonesia's President Joko Widodo said on Thursday he had congratulated Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto after unofficial counts showed the ex-special forces commander winning this week's presidential election in a single round of voting. Indonesian markets cheered the clear-cut count and rallied on Prabowo's promise to follow Widodo's policies in Southeast Asia's largest economy. The country's stock market (.JKSE), opens new tab rose as much as 2.2%, while the rupiah strengthened 0.3% to its strongest in a month before paring back gains.

Five reasons why Indonesia’s election matters (Economist🔒) 📊

Four charts and a map illustrate the country’s huge potential. First consider Indonesia’s sheer size. Indonesia’s demography is an important potential asset. It is the world’s fourth-most populous country, with 276m people, making it a gigantic consumer market. Though Jokowi has not brought the 7% annual economic growth that he promised, Indonesia has been one of the world’s best-performing economies in recent years. The backbone of Indonesia’s economy is commodities, some of which are in global demand owing to the energy transition. Its production of nickel, used in electric-vehicle batteries, dwarfs that of the rest of the world. Indonesia’s mix of location, size and resources make it a key theatre in superpower rivalries. Investments have poured in from both America and China, though the Chinese have invested significantly more.

Its Forces Depleted, Myanmar Junta Says It Will Enforce a Military Draft (NYT🔒)

For more than three years, Myanmar’s biggest cities have remained under the unyielding grip of the military junta. But the streets of places like Yangon were uncharacteristically quiet Monday evening as a sense of fear pervaded the country. Residents had a new reason to avoid contact with soldiers on patrol: Over the weekend, the regime said that it was invoking a decades-old law to start drafting young men and women into the army, setting off widespread alarm across the country. The regime’s forces have been depleted in recent months as they battle a growing insurgency by pro-democracy rebels and armed ethnic groups. The move to conscription to beef up the forces’ ranks suggested that the junta was on the defensive and growing desperate.

Pakistan election: Imran Khan's rivals PML-N and PPP reach deal to form government (BBC)

Nawaz Sharif and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari's parties in Pakistan have reached a deal to form a government after last week's disputed election. Mr Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party said it would help Mr Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League elect a prime minister. The two parties were previously in a coalition that ousted Imran Khan from power in 2022. He is now in jail. This time independent candidates backed by his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) unexpectedly won the most seats. PPP leader Asif Ali Zardari told a press conference that although his party and the PML-N had contested elections against each other, they had come together in the interests of the nation.

Space

Private US moon lander launched half century after last Apollo lunar mission (Reuters)

A moon lander built by Houston-based aerospace company Intuitive Machines was launched from Florida early on Thursday on a mission to conduct the first U.S. lunar touchdown in more than a half century and the first by a privately owned spacecraft. The company's Nova-C lander, dubbed Odysseus, lifted off shortly after 1 a.m. EST (0600 GMT) atop a two-stage Falcon 9 rocket flown by Elon Musk' SpaceX from NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral. If successful, the flight would represent the first controlled descent to the lunar surface by a U.S. spacecraft since the final Apollo crewed moon mission in 1972, and the first by a private company.

Russia’s Advances on Space-Based Nuclear Weapon Draw U.S. Concerns (NYT🔒)

The United States has informed Congress and its allies in Europe about Russian advances on a new, space-based nuclear weapon designed to threaten America’s extensive satellite network, according to current and former officials briefed on the matter. Such a satellite-killing weapon, if deployed, could destroy civilian communications, surveillance from space and military command-and control operations by the United States and its allies. At the moment, the United States does not have the ability to counter such a weapon and defend its satellites, a former official said. Officials said that the new intelligence, which they did not describe in detail, raised serious questions about whether Russia was preparing to abandon the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, which bans all orbital nuclear weapons. But since Russia does not appear close to deploying the weapon, they said, it is not considered an urgent threat.

Russia’s Antisatellite Technology Poses No Immediate Threat, White House Says (NYT🔒)

A White House spokesman said on Thursday that antisatellite technology being developed by Russia had not been deployed and posed “no immediate threat to anyone’s safety.” “We are not talking about a weapon that can be used to attack human beings or cause physical destruction here on earth,” the spokesman, John F. Kirby, told reporters. He added that the weapon was space-based and that it did not have a component that could be used to disarm or attack structures in space from the ground.

Intelligence About Russia Puts Focus on New U.S. Satellite Push (NYT🔒)

Hours after the news broke on Wednesday that the United States had picked up worrisome intelligence about Russia’s capacity to strike American satellites, the Pentagon sent a missile-tracking system into orbit, part of a vast new effort to bolster the military’s growing presence in space. The timing was coincidental. But it underscored how concerns about advances in Russian and Chinese capabilities in space have led the United States to embrace innovative ways of protecting vital communications, surveillance and GPS systems on the battlefield of the future. The system put into orbit on Wednesday was a prototype developed to test a new plan, named Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture, that aims to blanket low-Earth orbit with hundreds of smaller, cheaper satellites. The approach is like a version of the Starlink internet communications system that Elon Musk’s SpaceX already has in orbit, with more than 5,000 satellites. (The Pentagon prototype on Wednesday was launched on a Space X rocket.) The idea is that even if enemies of the United States could knock out some of its satellites — or even more than a dozen of them — the system could keep operating by shifting to other units in the orbiting web.

Government

On take two, House impeaches DHS secretary (GovExec)

The House on Tuesday narrowly voted to impeach a cabinet secretary for just the second time in the nation’s history, finally sending the Senate two articles to oust the head of the Homeland Security Department after failing to do so last week. The chamber approved DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas’ impeachment with only Republicans in a 214-213 vote, with three members of the party joining all Democrats in saying the inquiry failed to lay out any crimes he committed. It marked the first cabinet impeachment since 1876, when the House did so for President Grant's Secretary of War Wiliam Belknap. It also marked the second attempt to impeach Mayorkas in recent days, after House Republicans held a vote that ended in a surprising defeat just last week.

Biden campaign joins TikTok in an effort to reach younger voters (WP🔒)

President Biden officially joined TikTok on Sunday. The Biden campaign announced his arrival on the platform with a video captioned “lol hey guys” and a bio declaring “Grows the economy.”

Trump Fraud Trial Penalty Will Exceed $450 Million (NYT🔒)

A New York judge on Friday handed Donald J. Trump a crushing defeat in his civil fraud case, finding the former president liable for conspiring to manipulate his net worth and ordering him to pay a penalty of nearly $355 million plus interest that could wipe out his entire stockpile of cash. The decision by Justice Arthur F. Engoron caps a chaotic, yearslong case in which New York’s attorney general put Mr. Trump’s fantastical claims of wealth on trial. With no jury, the power was in Justice Engoron’s hands alone, and he came down hard: The judge delivered a sweeping array of punishments that threatens the former president’s business empire as he simultaneously contends with four criminal prosecutions and seeks to regain the White House.

Defense

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin released from hospital (Politico)

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was released from Walter Reed National Military Medical Center Tuesday, ending a brief admission that began on Sunday. Austin is “well and resumed his full functions and duties Tuesday evening at 5 p.m.,” a statement from the Pentagon read.

U.S. conducted cyberattack on suspected Iranian spy ship (NBC)

The U.S. recently conducted a cyberattack against an Iranian military ship that had been collecting intelligence on cargo vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, according to three U.S. officials. The cyberattack, which occurred more than a week ago, was part of the Biden administration’s response to the drone attack by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq that killed three U.S. service members in Jordan and wounded dozens of others late last month, the officials said.

New Commands, Ranks, and More: Big Changes for Air Force & Space Force (Air & Space Forces Magazine)

Air Force and Space Force leaders rolled out sweeping changes to the services’ organization, manning, readiness, and weapons development Feb. 12 at the AFA Warfare Symposium here. The changes aim to ratchet up readiness and gain a warfighting edge in the face of intensifying great power competition with China. Secretary Frank Kendall, acting undersecretary Kristyn Jones, Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David W. Allvin, and Chief of Space Operations Gen. B. Chance Saltzman detailed 24 action items and an aggressive schedule for implementation in a joint presentation to open the conference.

Air Force Warrant Officer Program to Focus on IT, Cyber Career Fields (Air & Space Forces Magazine)

The Air Force plan to bring back warrant officers will be limited to Airmen in the information technology and cyber career fields for the foreseeable future as the service evaluates the outcomes of the effort, Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin said Feb. 12.

Europe Is Boosting Military Spending. It’s Still Not Enough. (WSJ🔒) 📊

Although Donald Trump hasn’t yet secured the Republican presidential nomination, he has already reshaped U.S. debate over international security alliances. The shift is evident in his campaign speeches blasting European members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, in House Republicans’ blockage of military aid to Ukraine and Israel, and in critical comments from a growing number of Republican politicians. This year, for the first time in decades, European NATO members together will spend 2% of their combined gross domestic product on their militaries, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Wednesday. The $380 billion spending total masks wide variation, he cautioned, with some countries above or below the threshold that they agreed in 2014 to reach this year. The spending might not be enough to sway U.S. critics who say it is too little, too late, and is coming after decades of low investment that enfeebled Europe’s militaries. But the target of European spending might figure into the debate: Almost two-thirds of the money European governments have pledged for military gear since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago is directed at U.S. contractors, according to French think tank IRIS.

NOTE: Chart below shows a roll-up of the entire world’s military expenditure as a percent of GDP.

Economy

Inflation Was Far Worse Than Expected In January (Forbes🔒)

Inflation was much higher than economists anticipated last month, according to government data released Tuesday, a dim milestone as many eagerly await a growth-friendly shift from the Federal Reserve. Headline inflation was 3.1% in January on an annual basis, according to the Labor Department’s consumer price index tracking the average prices Americans pay for a broad range of goods and services. That topped consensus economist estimates of 2.9% though it’s a dramatic improvement from 6.4% in January 2023. Core inflation, arguably a more authoritative metric as it excludes the more price-sensitive food and energy sub-indexes, was 3.9% last month on an annual basis, the same as December and higher than the 3.7% forecast.

Disabled Americans Propel a Third of Post-Covid Workforce Gains (Bloomberg🔒)

Americans with disabilities have been a driving force in building back the nation’s post-pandemic labor market, and JPMorgan Chase & Co. says there are more gains to be had. Despite only making up about 12% of the US adult population, those with disabilities account for nearly a third of the growth in the labor force over the past three years, JPMorgan’s Chief US Economist Michael Feroli said in a note Wednesday. Participation rates for both disabled men and women both hit records last year and are still hovering near those levels, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. People with disabilities have historically been employed at much lower rates than those without, but the remote-work trend triggered by the pandemic changed that.

Another ‘Great Retirement’ Wave Hits the US After Stocks Rally (Bloomberg🔒) 📊

Economists long expected the share of retirees in the population to soar as baby boomers aged. Covid-19 then caused the number to spike well beyond expectations, a surge dubbed the “Great Retirement Boom.” But just as they seemed to be coming back down, the numbers surged again in recent months, reaching a post-pandemic record in December. The US now has around 2.7 million more retirees than predicted in a model designed by Miguel Faria-e-Castro, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

The U.S. Government Will Soon Spend More on Interest Payments Than Defense (WSJ🔒) 📊

Treasury yields have sprung to multiyear highs, forcing the U.S. government to pay a lot more in interest and putting pressure on the budget. The U.S. government is expected to pay an additional $1.1 trillion in interest over the coming decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s latest estimates. Interest costs are on pace to surpass defense this year as one of the largest government expenses in the budget. Only Social Security and Medicare are forecast to be bigger burdens in the coming years.

Business

Maersk Says Red Sea Detours Could Extend To Second Half Of 2024 (Forbes🔒)

An A.P. Moller Maersk official said Wednesday that the shipping giant expects to continue avoiding trade routes through the Red Sea into the second half of the year, a sign that ongoing tensions prompted by Houthi militants’ attacks in the region could pose longer-term challenges to the global shipping industry.

Have Uber and Lyft Finally Found a Way to Make Ride-Sharing Profitable? (WSJ🔒)

Longtime money-losing ride-share companies Uber Technologies and Lyft have surprised naysayers by doing what many thought was impossible: racing toward steady profits. 2023 marked Uber’s first year of being profitable as a public company. Uber put more gas in its tank Wednesday after it outlined better long-term financial goals during its investor day. Its stock jumped 15%. On Tuesday, its smaller rival, Lyft, projected it would become cash-flow positive for the first time this year. That means it will generate more cash than it spends this year. While that isn’t a profit, investors see it as an important signal as Uber swerved to profitability a year after reaching that turning point. Lyft’s stock surged 35% Wednesday. The stock rose on the back of the rosy outlook despite initial confusion from an embarrassing earnings typo that added an extra zero to a key number. For over a decade, Uber and Lyft burned through billions of dollars in an attempt to grab market share. Now, their focus is on profitable growth and cost discipline.

Musk Says SpaceX Has Moved State Of Incorporation To Texas Amid Feud With Delaware (Forbes🔒)

SpaceX has moved its state of incorporation from Delaware to Texas, the rocket company’s CEO Elon Musk said Wednesday on X, spotlighting the billionaire’s ongoing feud with Delaware over a state court’s decision to void his massive $50.9 billion pay package from Tesla.

Airbus Extends Lead Over Boeing Amid Archrival’s Stumbles (WSJ🔒) 📊

As Boeing labors through its latest crisis, Airbus is extending its lead over its U.S. rival and threatening to topple the duopoly that has long ruled the industry. Airbus last year shattered the industry record for new orders. Its order backlog, spanning more than a decade, is the longest in history. On Thursday, the European plane maker set out plans for another jump in deliveries and said it’s on track to reach its highest-ever production rates in 2026.

Cotton Demand From US Textile Mills Drops to Lowest Since 1885 (Bloomberg🔒) 📊

American mills are on track to process the least cotton this year since ’85. The year 1885, that is. The same year the Statue of Liberty arrived in New York City’s harbor. According to an updated US Department of Agriculture forecast released Monday, US textile mills will feed just 1.74 million bales of cotton into their machines in the 2023-2024 marketing year that ends in July, the slowest rate in 139 years. That’s nearly 15% less than last year and even lower than the agency’s prior forecast. These factories, which turn cotton fibers into yarn and fabric, are among the last bastions of the country’s textile industry after decades of rising competition from cheaper overseas production and synthetic materials. Mill use made a brief recovery in the 1990s, when trade deals encouraged the US to export yarn and fabric to be turned into clothes in other countries before being sent back and sold. The reprieve was short-lived, even as global cotton use by mills increases.

New N.Y. Law Mandates More Transparency in Credit Card Surcharges (NYT🔒)

A new law going into effect on Sunday will require businesses in New York to clearly post the cost of purchasing items with a credit card, including any surcharges being imposed, for customers before checkout. The law, signed by Gov. Kathy Hochul in December, also prevents businesses from imposing more in credit card surcharges than what they are charged by processing companies. Businesses can choose either to solely display the higher credit card price for the products or services they sell or to list both the credit card price and the lower cash price for the items. The new disclosure requirements will “ensure individuals can trust that their purchases will not result in surprise surcharges,” Ms. Hochul said in a statement this week.

The Sneaker Resale Market Is Broken (Business of Fashion)

Oversupply of once-hyped sneakers like Jordans has caused resale prices to plummet, pushing smaller platforms out of the market and sending the bigger players scrambling to adapt. Regional sneaker resale platforms like the Netherlands-based Restocks and French company Kikikickz shuttered late last year. Nike and Adidas recently abandoned the scarcity model, while popular newcomers like On and Salomon always made their products available at retail. Resale giants including StockX and GOAT have diversified into other categories, but won’t be immune to further contraction in the market.

Crypto

Bitcoin Passes $50,000 Amid Growing ETF Momentum (Forbes🔒) 📊

Bitcoin reached the $50,000 mark for the first time since the bullish days of 2021. Its surge comes from a five-day period where it gained 13% and represents a strong recovery from a large sell-off in mid-January when long-awaited spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) began to trade.

Energy

Gas Prices Hit Three-Month High As Oil Surges Amid Middle East Conflicts (Forbes🔒) 📊

U.S. drivers saw the most expensive gasoline prices at the pump in three months on Wednesday as the national average price for a gallon of gas continues to inch up—and drivers can expect prices to keep surging as American refineries undergo maintenance and as conflict in the Middle East and attacks in the Red Sea threaten to push oil prices upwards.

Auto

The Cost of Car Ownership Is Getting Painful (WSJ🔒) 📊

One place Americans still can’t get relief from inflation is behind the wheel. Many of the costs related to car ownership continued to outpace the consumer-price index last month. Car insurance premiums rose 20.6% in January from a year earlier. A trip to the mechanic, the price of a parking space, and highway tolls are also up, offsetting the savings from one of the big exceptions, falling gas prices.

Real Estate

Cash-Flush Buyers Dip Into Distressed Commercial Real Estate (WSJ🔒)

Turmoil in commercial real estate is sending jitters through regional banks and other lenders. But one group is pleased with the turbulence: investors sitting on piles of cash they raised to scoop up distressed properties. Many of these investors have been stockpiling funds since early in the pandemic. They have been frustrated because most property owners haven’t agreed to sell at big-enough markdowns, in large part because lenders have been willing to offer loan extensions and modifications. Now, that is starting to change. Lenders are stepping up the pressure on owners of office buildings crippled by remote work. They are getting tougher on hotel owners who have neglected repairs. They are calling in loans to apartment-building owners who fell behind on construction schedules owing to supply-chain shortages.

Mortgage Rates Rise (Freddie Mac) 📊

On the heels of consumer prices rising more than expected, mortgage rates increased this week. The economy has been performing well so far this year and rates may stay higher for longer, potentially slowing the spring homebuying season. According to Freddie Mac data, mortgage applications to buy a home so far in 2024 are down in more than half of all states compared to a year earlier.

New Single Family Homes Continue to Get Smaller (Parcllabs)

While the median size of single family home square footage has remained constant over the last 10 years, with a notable exception being during the pandemic where larger homes were trading hands as consumer preferences shifted from urban environments to suburban environments, new construction footprints have declined over 12% over the last 10 years. Existing homes are typically smaller than new construction, however that gap is shrinking. In 2013, the median square footage of existing single family home sales was 1,593 square feet. For new construction, that number was 2,313 square feet, a 45% size gap. Those numbers in 2023 were 1,607 for existing home sales and 2,036 for new construction. A gap reduction from 45% in 2013 to 27% in 2023.

Personal Finance

How Americans define a middle-class lifestyle — and why they can’t reach it (WP🔒) 📊

A poll from The Washington Post finds widespread agreement among Americans on what it means to be middle class. But just over a third of U.S. adults have the financial security to meet that definition, according to a Post analysis of data from the Federal Reserve. Americans also underestimate the income required for that lifestyle, suggesting that the popular image of middle-class security is more of an aspiration than a reality for most Americans. About 9 in 10 U.S. adults said that six individual indicators of financial security and stability were necessary parts of being middle class in the Post poll. Smaller majorities thought other milestones, such as homeownership and a job with paid sick leave, were necessary. Researchers often define the middle class based on income, in part because income data is frequently collected and easy to access. But that income doesn’t guarantee a middle-class lifestyle. One commonly used definition from the Pew Research Center sets a middle-class income between two-thirds and twice the national median income, or $67,819 to $203,458 for a family of four in 2022. Most Americans consider the lower end of that range, $75,000 and $100,000, to be middle class, according to the Post poll.

Stocks Are at Records, but Are They Expensive? These Models Have an Answer (WSJ🔒) 📊

Stocks are setting repeated highs, reigniting a perennial debate among investors about whether they are too expensive. The S&P 500 has climbed 5.4% to start 2024 and closed above 5000 for the first time Friday, its 10th record of the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen 2.6%, setting 11 records along the way. When trying to gauge whether a stock or index appears cheap or pricey, strategists recommend that investors use a combination of metrics, along with weighing the economic conditions, the overall financial health of a company and the industry’s record. Investors are typically willing to pay more for companies they anticipate will expand rapidly than those whose growth prospects are more limited. Here’s what some of the popular valuation models tell us about the state of the market: The price/earnings ratio—calculated by dividing a company’s stock price by its reported or projected per-share earnings—is one of Wall Street’s most popular tools for valuing stocks and indicates what an investor is paying for each dollar of a company’s earnings. Akin to the price/earnings ratio, the price-to-book ratio divides a company’s stock price by its book value, a measure of total assets minus liabilities. The ratio is often used by investors on the hunt for undervalued stocks at reasonable prices. It is typically used to evaluate financial stocks, particularly banks, and shares of companies with tangible assets. The [Price/earnings growth] ratio is the market’s valuation of a company relative to its earnings prospects. To calculate it, divide a company’s price/earnings ratio over the past 12 months by its projected annual future earnings growth. A PEG of 1 indicates the stock’s price is in line with its growth expectations. The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings [CAPE] ratio was derived by Robert Shiller, a Nobel Prize-winning economist. It is calculated by dividing a stock’s current price with its average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years.

Cyber

Microsoft says it caught hackers from China, Russia and Iran using its AI tools (Reuters)

State-backed hackers from Russia, China, and Iran have been using tools from Microsoft-backed OpenAI to hone their skills and trick their targets, according to a report published on Wednesday. Microsoft said in its report it had tracked hacking groups affiliated with Russian military intelligence, Iran's Revolutionary Guard, and the Chinese and North Korean governments as they tried to perfect their hacking campaigns using large language models. Those computer programs, often called artificial intelligence, draw on massive amounts of text to generate human-sounding responses.

Justice Department Conducts Court-Authorized Disruption of Botnet Controlled by the Russian Federation’s Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff (GRU) (Justice Department)

A January 2024 court-authorized operation has neutralized a network of hundreds of small office/home office (SOHO) routers that GRU Military Unit 26165, also known as APT 28, Sofacy Group, Forest Blizzard, Pawn Storm, Fancy Bear, and Sednit, used to conceal and otherwise enable a variety of crimes. These crimes included vast spearphishing and similar credential harvesting campaigns against targets of intelligence interest to the Russian government, such as U.S. and foreign governments and military, security, and corporate organizations. In recent months, allegations of Unit 26165 activity of this type has been the subject of a private sector cybersecurity advisory and a Ukrainian government warning.

Meta Unmasks Hundreds Of AI Spies On Facebook And Instagram Made By Italian Surveillance Dealers (Forbes🔒)

A group of Italian spyware companies have had hundreds of fake personas using AI-generated profile photos thrown off Facebook and Instagram, after Meta found they were being used to snoop on journalists and political activists. As many as 900 fake profiles were created by Rome-based Cy4Gate and its subsidiary RCS Lab using artificial intelligence to generate the profile photo, according to a Meta threat report published Thursday. The personas posed as protesters, journalists and young women, the tech giant said. Meta claimed that the personas were carrying out social engineering attacks on targets, attempting them to click on links that would unmask their IP address. In some cases, Word articles containing hidden IP-revealing code were given to victims, dressed up as news articles or anti-government petitions. The fakes would also try to trick people into sharing emails and phone numbers, as part of a reconnaissance phase of surveillance of a target, the tech giant said.

Spy Cameras For Sale On Amazon And eBay Are Being Used For Child Exploitation (Forbes🔒)

Teddy bears. Jacket buttons. Air fresheners. Bathroom hooks. Across the internet, anyone can buy normal household items like these that also double as spy cameras. According to marketing materials for listings on Amazon, eBay and Walmart, these products are designed to catch cheating spouses, keep tabs on nannies, monitor children and catch thieves. In a recently-unsealed case, FBI investigators scoured the house of a teenage girl who’d been surreptitiously filmed in a bathroom and a bedroom, and discovered a hidden camera disguised as a black wireless phone charger. The footage had ended up in a chatroom on Amazon-owned app Wickr where users shared footage of nude children caught on spy cameras. The FBI noted in the warrant that the spy camera was currently available for purchase on Amazon. Ultimately, the suspect was arrested for possessing child sexual exploitation material.

How Two Former Spies Cracked The $11 Billion Cyber Insurance Market (Forbes🔒) 📊

Back in November 2022, Russian computers were surreptitiously scanning American computers when they stumbled into a trap: a network of 400 virtual servers with IP addresses that appeared to belong to real companies and organizations. Except these were decoys set up by Coalition, a San Francisco–based fintech that combines one of the world’s oldest industries—insurance—with cutting-edge techniques for detecting cyberthreats. “There’s no legitimate reason anyone should try to connect to any of those servers,” says Coalition CEO and cofounder Joshua Motta, a 40-year-old former CIA analyst.

Opinion | I was head of the NSA. In a world of threats, this is my biggest worry. (WP🔒)

Approaching the end of my five-plus years as director of the National Security Agency, I have heard the same question again and again: What’s your greatest worry as you conclude decades of service to your nation? People expect me to name a particular country or challenge threatening the United States — maybe China or Russia, or even criminal hackers targeting our critical infrastructure. I have plenty of worries about each of those. What worries me most, though, isn’t an external threat, but the possibility that we are on the verge of making a grave mistake. I worry that we could make ourselves blind to external threats such as the ones I’ve named and more if Congress allows a critical intelligence collection authority — Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act — to expire in April, or renews it with crippling restrictions. Either move would be a self-inflicted wound that our nation cannot afford.

What is Section 702? Congress is debating the controversial surveillance power (NBC)

Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, or FISA, allows the government to conduct targeted surveillance of foreign nationals living outside the U.S. without needing to obtain a warrant. It has become increasingly controversial over the years.

NOTE: Article is from 2023, but lays out why Section 702 has not been renewed.

Artificial Intelligence

OpenAI introduces AI model that turns text into video (Reuters)

Microsoft-backed OpenAI is working on a software that can generate minute-long videos based on text prompts, the company said on Thursday. The software, called Sora, is currently available for red teaming, which helps identify flaws in the AI system, as well as for use by visual artists, designers and filmmakers to gain feedback on the model, the company said in a statement. "Sora is able to generate complex scenes with multiple characters, specific types of motion, and accurate details of the subject and background," the statement said, adding that it can create multiple shots within a single video.

Little-known startup takes the AI weather prediction crown (Semafor)

A team of Stanford graduates in their 20s has overtaken tech giants like Huawei, Nvidia, and Google DeepMind in the competitive field of using artificial intelligence to predict the weather. Startup WindBorne Systems announced Wednesday that it surpassed DeepMind, the current leader in AI weather prediction, in key benchmarks set by U.S. and European government weather models. In an exclusive interview with Semafor, the co-founders of the firm, backed by Khosla Ventures and Footwork, said they used an in-air fleet of around 100 inexpensive, hand-built weather balloons made from plastic purchased from a restaurant supply company to gather granular data, which they then analyzed using the same AI techniques that power ChatGPT.

Artificial intelligence, real emotion. People are seeking a romantic connection with the perfect bot (AP)

Similar to general-purpose AI chatbots, companion bots use vast amounts of training data to mimic human language. But they also come with features — such as voice calls, picture exchanges and more emotional exchanges — that allow them to form deeper connections with the humans on the other side of the screen. Users typically create their own avatar, or pick one that appeals to them. On online messaging forums devoted to such apps, many users say they’ve developed emotional attachments to these bots and are using them to cope with loneliness, play out sexual fantasies or receive the type of comfort and support they see lacking in their real-life relationships. Fueling much of this is widespread social isolation — already declared a public health threat in the U.S and abroad — and an increasing number of startups aiming to draw in users through tantalizing online advertisements and promises of virtual characters who provide unconditional acceptance.

Life

When It Comes to Sex, My Generation Is Screwed (The Free Press)

With today’s young men and women increasingly polarized over politics, Gen Z is facing a sexual apocalypse, writes Rikki Schlott.

Why You Should Get Married (The Free Press)

What elite liberals and the online right both get wrong about getting hitched.

Saving Marriage at Scale (City Journal)

While there are exceptions, extensive data show that children raised in two-parent households, even when their parents are not legally married, do better emotionally, physically, academically, and economically over their lifetimes.

Education

The Small University Endowment That Is Beating the Ivy League (WSJ🔒) 📊

Baylor University has traded its way to the top of the university endowment performance rankings. Many universities allocate their money among different assets and adjust periodically. Baylor, led by a former trader, seizes on market moves frequently to boost or cut exposure to its managers. The endowment gained 6.4% for the fiscal year ended June 30, beating all the Ivy League endowments. Over the past five years, its 10.9% annualized return outpaced that of all the Ivies except for Brown University, which notched a 13.3% average annual gain. Baylor ranks in the top 5% of all U.S. endowments for the period, according to Wilshire Trust Universe Comparison Service.

62% of Americans Lack a College Degree. Can They Solve the Labor Shortage? (WSJ🔒) 📊

Facing a long-term labor shortage, employers are looking to expand the pool of potential workers. One group—people without a college degree—holds particular promise. They make up nearly two-thirds of the U.S. population over 25, and traditionally have been ineligible for many managerial and technical positions. A push by some companies to eliminate degree requirements has opened the door to more candidates. Yet the share of jobs that went to those candidates barely budged after the requirement was lifted, according to a new analysis. There are several explanations for the plodding progress, from automated screening tools that favor college graduates to the difficulty of changing hiring managers’ long-held beliefs about the value of a bachelor’s degree. Many employers say they know time and demographics aren’t on their side. Baby boomers are aging out of the workforce, U.S. birthrates are low, and shifting immigration policies make it difficult to count on reinforcements from abroad. Meanwhile, college enrollment is on the decline. Only 38% of Americans over age 25 have at least a bachelor’s degree.

Health

OPINION | To Cure Burnout, Embrace Seasonality (NYT🔒)

In recent years, I’ve come to believe that the decision to treat the pacing of cognitive jobs like manufacturing jobs was a mistake. We seemed to have forgotten that life in the mills and factories was miserable. The unrelenting pace of those jobs eventually required the formation of labor unions and regulatory innovations, like the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938, which introduced a mandated workweek and overtime pay — all of which emphasized the artificiality of forcing our efforts into such an unvarying and demanding rhythm. And yet, as more of us shifted into the comparable comfort of office buildings, we carried over this same flawed model, forged on the factory floor. The problem with the invisible factory, however, goes beyond the fact that it makes us unhappy. It’s also ineffective. The process of producing value with the human brain — the foundational activity of many knowledge sector roles — cannot be forced into a regular, unvarying schedule. Intense periods of cognition must be followed by quieter periods of mental rejuvenation. Energized creative breakthroughs must be supported by the slower incubation of new ideas.

NOTE: This article is from Cal Newport. I’ve really enjoyed his books Deep Work and Digital Minimalism.

Food & Drink

We’re Not Eating Enough Bacon, and That’s a Problem for the Economy (WSJ🔒) 📊

The American pork industry has a problem: It makes more tenderloin, ham, sausage and bacon than anybody wants to eat. From giant processors to the farmers who supply them, they are in a predicament largely of their own making. They made production so efficient that demand can’t keep up with supply. Their long-running advertising campaign touting pork as “the other white meat” was remarkably effective at reaching consumers—but wasn’t actually the best way to market the product, some in the industry now argue, because it drew a direct comparison with chicken, which is typically more affordable.

Chocolate Block: Cocoa prices have surged to all-time highs (Chartr) 📊

Last Thursday, cocoa futures closed just shy of $5,900 per metric ton, according to data from YahooFinance, up nearly $1,500 since the start of January, marking a 128% increase in the last 12 months. The shift comes as hot, dry conditions and changing weather patterns arising from the El Niño phenomenon continue to devastate crop yields in West Africa. Indeed, Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, even halted next-season sales of the commodity at the end of January, as a ~150,000 ton bean shortage and rising freight costs in the Red Sea have left the country close to default on several of its export contracts.

Nature

California’s war on plastic bag use seems to have backfired. Lawmakers are trying again (LA Times)

It was a decade ago when California became the first state in the nation to ban single-use plastic bags, ushering in a wave of anti-plastic legislation from coast to coast. But in the years after California seemingly kicked its plastic grocery sack habit, material recovery facilities and environmental activists noticed a peculiar trend: Plastic bag waste by weight was increasing to unprecedented levels. According to a report by the consumer advocacy group CALPIRG, 157,385 tons of plastic bag waste was discarded in California the year the law was passed. By 2022, however, the tonnage of discarded plastic bags had skyrocketed to 231,072 — a 47% jump. Even accounting for an increase in population, the number rose from 4.08 tons per 1,000 people in 2014 to 5.89 tons per 1,000 people in 2022. The problem, it turns out, was a section of the law that allowed grocery stores and large retailers to provide thicker, heavier-weight plastic bags to customers for the price of a dime. These “reusable” bags are made from a material known as HDPE, which is thicker and heavier than the LDPE plastic bags of yore. And although both materials can be recycled — and in commercial and agricultural settings often are recycled — they are generally not in residential and consumer settings, Murray said. “Basically what happened is that plastic bag companies invented these thicker plastic bags that technically meet that definition of reusable but are clearly not being reused and don’t look like reusable bags and which just circumvent the law’s intent,” said Jenn Engstrom, CALPIRG’S state director. Now, California legislators are hoping to correct that error by passing a law that closes that loophole and bans those thick plastic bags offered at the checkout line.

Travel

These Dogs Ended Up on a No-Fly List. Their Owners Are Baffled. (WSJ🔒)

Pet owners have tangled with airlines in recent years as carriers have cracked down on people traveling with animals. Airlines said more people traveling with pets led to an uptick in incidents involving these animals, including bites, urination and defecation. They also received complaints from some passengers, including those with allergies, about the animals. Dog owners say United Airlines has developed the strictest reputation for its policy of banning furry companions judged not to fit comfortably in a kennel, even if they behave well in the air.

Art

UK Public Art Database Will Digitally Record More Than 5,000 Murals, Including Works By Banksy (ARTnews)

Approximately 5,000 murals across the UK will be recorded, photographed, and added to a free public database as part of a three-year-initiative by the art education charity, Art UK. The announcement from Art UK, made on February 6, said that the murals documented by volunteer researchers and photographers will include a large number of painted works, as well as sculptural murals made of concrete, brick, wood, stone, tile, and other materials. Some of the works by the infamous street artist Banksy will also be included in the project, according to The Art Newspaper.

Sports

Super Bowl LVIII makes history as most-watched American telecast ever (Axios)

CBS' broadcast of Super Bowl LVIII on Sunday was the most-watched television event in U.S. history, according to preliminary Nielsen figures — with 123.4 million viewers across CBS, Univision and streaming platforms.

Caitlin Clark sets NCAA women’s basketball scoring record with 3,528th career point (The Athletic)

Making history has become almost routine through Caitlin Clark’s senior year. With rabid Hawkeyes fans supporting her at home and on the road, she has blown past offensive markers with the same unique flair that makes her capable of pulling up with ease from nearly half court. On Thursday against Michigan, Clark set her most significant record yet. Fittingly, the shot that cemented her stature came just left of the mid-court logo. “You all knew I was going to shoot a logo-3 for the record. C’mon now,” Clark said afterward. It didn’t take long to cement her place in history. On Iowa’s fifth possession, with 7:48 on the first-quarter clock, after Clark had pushed the ball up in transition, she elevated from a place that only she seems to rise from. She converted the deep 3-pointer to become the NCAA women’s basketball all-time leading scorer with a total of 3,528 points.

Marathon world record holder Kiptum dies in road accident (Reuters) 📊

Kenya's marathon world record holder Kelvin Kiptum and his coach were killed in a traffic accident in the Rift Valley on Sunday, cutting short the career of the only man to have run the endurance classic in less than two hours and one minute. The 24-year-old set the world record, opens new tab at the Chicago Marathon in October with a time of two hours and 35 seconds to surpass the mark of 2:01:09 run by compatriot Eliud Kipchoge in Berlin in 2022.

Two resources to help you be a more discerning reader:

AllSides - https://www.allsides.com/unbiased-balanced-news

Media Bias Chart - https://www.adfontesmedia.com/

Caveat: Even these resources/charts are biased. Who says that the system they use to describe news sources is accurate? Still, hopefully you find them useful as a basic guide or for comparison.

Curated Compositions

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