I’d like to tell you about Aspen—he was the best dog you could ever ask for. He was smart, playful, loving, ornery, and we miss him. We got him in late 2009, when he was still a pup, and had to put him down in 2023—it was one of the hardest things we’ve had to do as a family and was especially hard on my wife.

We named him Aspen because he was white, like the bark on Aspen trees, and because we enjoy Colorado, which has a town named Aspen. He was a Goldendoodle, which was a fairly newish breed in the mid-2000s, but now you see them everywhere. I wanted a German Shepherd, but I was overruled by other family members. I’m glad they won out.

As the dog of a military family, Aspen saw so much transition and change that anytime we packed our bags, even for a weekend trip, he’d get nervous and lay next to the piled up bags. He’d lay completely still and flat—except for his eyes, which would dart left and right to track the movements of the family as they walked back and forth. When we’d open the door to walk out of the house with our bags, he’d be the first out the door, as if to say, “I’m going too!”

Six months after we got him, we took a road trip from Florida to Alaska, driving across the southern U.S., then up the West Coast into Canada. He traveled with us in our minivan, his area taking up as much space as our two sons combined.

Along the way, we stopped at the Grand Canyon to stretch our legs, see the view, and take Aspen for a walk. I kid you not, a bunch of Japanese tourists with cameras saw this giant white puffball on a leash and immediately started snapping photos. Aspen responded with a toothy, open-mouthed, tongue-sticking-out smile and soaked in all the attention. He could be a bit of a showboat at times. In fact, once, he was even on the front page of the newspaper for a Fourth of July parade. Aspen made the newspaper picture; my son, however, was cropped out.

After the Grand Canyon, he got to see Yosemite. Then, in Canada, we got on a ferry where he had to stay below deck in the car in his crate. For the next couple of days, whenever we hit a port—whether noon or midnight or anytime in between—we’d let him out to go potty, then usher him back to his crate. Then we all got back into the car to drive through the Yukon and into Alaska.

In Alaska, he loved the snow in the winter and the grass fields in the summer. His best friend was our neighbor’s dog, Nalia, a large Alaskan Malamute. The two of them loved to wrestle, and it wasn’t uncommon for it to end with blood stains after one or both of them had played a little too rough and bitten the other around the nape of the neck a little too hard. They were never angry at one another; it was always playful.

He was an incredibly smart dog. Early on, he learned to tap a bell hanging from the handle on our back door to signify that he needed to go outside to go to the bathroom. Because his urine would kill the grass, I installed pebbles in an area on the side of the house—his “doggy litter” area, if you will. At first, it worked great.

Then he became too smart for his own good. He trained us to open the back door anytime we heard the bell ring, even if it was just because he wanted to wander around the backyard to smell things. And since he didn’t like the feeling of the gravel on his paws, he’d walk toward that area of the yard when we let him out; then, as soon as we closed the door, he’d sprint away to the grassy area to go to the bathroom.

To say he was the best dog is not to say he was a perfect dog.

Once, in Alaska, we had to take him in for emergency surgery after realizing that a wool sock he had eaten had gotten stuck in his intestines. I’m not sure I could’ve choked down (pun intended) the $1,000+ vet bill had I not loved that dog. And that’s nothing to say of how I later had to manually pull the other sock out of the exiting hole of his digestive system (I’ll spare you the details on that one). The things you do for the ones you love.

He was a bit of a Houdini at times. Though he never ran away, sometimes he would escape from our backyard, only for us to find out he’d gone when he pawed at our front door from outside. We’d open the door, and he’d be like, “Hi folks, I’m back.” and would trot back inside. To which we’d respond, “We didn’t even know you were gone!” I’m reminded of Billy in The Family Circus comic strip:

I imagined that, like Billy, Aspen had wandered the neighborhood, checked out some things, then decided he was ready to come home, so he did.

From the beginning, we had a rule that he was not allowed on our couch.

But something changed along the way, and it just started happening. He was not a lap dog. With a dog his size, it was like an elephant coming to sit on the couch—the process of getting on was cumbersome, followed by circling before sitting and then constant stretching and maneuvering to claim more couch real estate. If my wife or I ever got up from the couch to grab something from the kitchen, we’d return to find our place filled with whatever part of his body was not taking up the other 90% of the couch.

Couches, beanbags, beds… he had an elevated sense of self. The floor simply wasn’t good enough for this dog.

Sometimes he had a rough night partying and didn’t quite make it fully into bed. We can all relate.

And sometimes he had a rough day at the office:

I thought this picture of him waiting for Santa was nice too; he heard there were openings on the sleigh team and wanted to interview.

He loved going on walks, but he was terrible at going on runs. He wanted to smell every single blade of grass, which doesn’t really make running feasible.

Walks also meant us humans carrying poop bags and picking up his poop. And poop he did. Nope, he couldn’t go in our backyard; instead, he had to wait until we were 100 yards from home and make us humans carry his filled poop bags back for him like royal servants. I’m still not sure who trained whom. We carried innumerable bags of poop home from walks around the neighborhood over the years. It was embarrassing for us humans, and I think he was proud of that.

He had a particular gait that made him look like he was just kind of loping or bebopping along. Thus became one of his nicknames—Bebop.

Eventually, his list of nicknames grew so long that we only called him Aspen when he was in trouble or we needed him for something. His nicknames included:

• Bebop – which, of course, led to other nicknames, like:

• Beeeeeeeebops Las Vegas - said like “Vivaaaaaa Las Vegas!”.

• Bipity Bops – Inspired by the song from the Cinderella cartoon with the lyrics “Bipity Bopity Boo”.

• Bibity – A shortening of the above.

• Polywoggers – Along with his gait, his tail had its own personality, wagging in numerous directions… thus poly, meaning “many.” We’d usually call him this after his tail knocked something over, as in, “Polywoggers, watch your tail!”

• Poop eater – Self-explanatory.

• Dogger breath – Also self-explanatory and usually preceded by “poop eater.”

• Monkey dog - When he did something goofy. As in, “You monkey dog, stop rolling in the dirt! We just gave you bath.”

• Squirrel chaser – Squirrels are, well, squirrely. And though he liked to chase them, they were simply too fast to catch. But the most annoying part to him was when they’d cackle at him once they got up in the tree. “Squirrel chaser,” I’d say, “you’ll never win, they can climb trees.”

• Deer harasser – We have a lot of deer in our neighborhood. And while we were busy picking up his poop on walks, this giant white fluffy 70 pound dog would attempt to slowly sneak up on the deer. I have no idea what he thought he’d do when he got them, but then again, I don’t think he ever really intended to catch them. He would only half-heartedly jump at them when he got close. Then, as they’d bound away from the “great white killer,” he’d turn back to us and smirk, then continue bebopping along on his walk.

For everyone in our family, though, his most enduring trait was that of stress sponge. He was so docile that you could just lay next to him on the floor, petting his soft fur, letting him soak up the stress of the day. There were many days that I felt God put him into our lives to do just that. He would lay there as long as we would. I miss the feel of his fur.

He was also the neighborhood’s friendliest dog. Though he’d bark at other dogs in passing, it was not aggressive. It was as if he was saying, “Hey, what’s up, dude!” If they didn’t respond back with a bark or friendly wag of the tail, he’d pause and look at me as if asking, “What’s wrong with that guy?”

When we were in Alaska, we had a giant field behind our home. We’d go out to the field and throw a ball for him to fetch. He’d run to get it a couple of times, but after that, we’d end up having to go get the ball we threw.

When he was younger, he was very fast. In that same Alaskan field, the boys and I would play a game with him where we’d have him sit in place, then we’d start walking away, and, after we’d gotten a certain distance from him, we’d start running. As soon as we started running, he’d come chasing after us.

He’d always catch me—and catching usually meant swiping at my legs, causing me to trip and land face-first on the ground. I’d laugh and he’d come over and lick my face. He loved the thrill of the chase and the taste of victory.

As he grew older, he became slower, weaker, and increasingly in pain. There was less walking and more lying around. What he really loved was just sitting outside, watching passersby like an old man.

Alas, his compounding health issues just became too much, and we had to put him down. It was one of the toughest days for our family. There are harder things to bear in life, no doubt, but the loss of a pet is difficult—especially when that pet was Aspen.

To make matters worse, one of my sons and I were out of town and had to watch virtually as he passed. But it was harder on my wife, who held him as he took his last breath and felt his heart beat for the last time.

Undoubtedly, he was the best dog a family could’ve asked for.

So, Aspen, you big fluff ball, in your honor, we raise a bag of poop to you. We miss you, Bebop, you poop-eating dogger-breath polywogger monkey dog. Know that the squirrels still cackle, the deer continue to invade, and you’ll forever have a place in our hearts.

Aspen, the best dog a family could ask for.

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But this post isn’t about land invasions or airborne assaults on foreign soil.

Instead, since I’ve been seeing a growing number of stories about the Strait of Hormuz, global shipping chokepoints, and the Taiwan Strait, I thought I’d tie them all together. I hope you find this helpful.

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For years, it was easy to assume that globalization, digital networks, and advanced technology had reduced the importance of physical geography. But recent events are showing the opposite. Even in an era of AI-enabled warfare and precision strikes, narrow waterways and physical supply routes still determine outcomes. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and even limited disruption there has already caused sharp spikes in energy prices.

History shows the danger of trying to solve these disruptions militarily—misjudging second- and third-order effects has led to costly failures in the past.

The Gallipoli Lesson

The Gallipoli campaign during World War I is a case in point, as Niall Ferguson points out in this great piece. The Allied powers attempted to seize control of the Dardanelles Strait to reopen a vital supply route and gain a strategic advantage. What followed was a costly failure—poor planning, underestimated resistance, difficult terrain, and logistical breakdowns led to a prolonged stalemate and eventual withdrawal.

The campaign didn’t just fail militarily; it produced unintended economic and political consequences as well, and those consequences were both immediate and far-reaching. Economically, the failure to reopen the Dardanelles meant that grain shipments from Russia remained blocked, contributing to price volatility and fears of food shortages in Europe. Britain had to intervene heavily in markets—subsidizing shipping, restricting exports, and even attempting to influence commodity prices—measures that distorted normal economic activity and reflected how quickly wartime pressures can override market systems.

Politically, the fallout was just as significant. The failed campaign weakened the British government, forcing Prime Minister H. H. Asquith to form a coalition government and contributing to a loss of confidence in leadership. Winston Churchill, who had championed the operation, was removed from his post and saw his reputation severely damaged (though it was salvaged in WWII). Beyond Britain, the campaign failed to stabilize Russia, which remained economically strained and politically fragile. These were conditions that ultimately contributed to the Russian Revolution. In short, what began as a strategic effort to solve a military and economic problem ended up weakening alliances, destabilizing governments, and compounding the very risks it was meant to resolve.

Chokepoints, it turns out, are complex multi-armed systems that can quickly tighten into a chokehold. Intervening under pressure rarely unfolds as planned, and often produces outcomes far different from what decision-makers expect.

Global shipping chokepoints

Global trade—worth more than $11.5 trillion annually by sea—depends on a handful of maritime chokepoints. About 80% of global trade by volume and 55% by value moves across oceans, concentrating risk in narrow corridors like Hormuz, Suez, and key Asian straits.

Not all chokepoints carry equal risk. As seen in the image below, Closing Hormuz blocks energy flows with few alternatives, but affects about 6% of global maritime trade. By contrast, disruptions in the Taiwan Strait (~13%), the Suez Canal (~16%), or South China Sea (~24%) would impact a far larger share of global commerce. The most severe scenario, blocking Southeast Asian routes, could affect up to 26% of global trade, forcing massive detours and cascading delays.

Even when rerouting is possible, it comes at a cost: longer routes, higher insurance, and slower delivery times that ripple through supply chains and consumer prices.

The impact of just-in-time logistics

Even limited disruption, such as a quarantine, would force ships to reroute, sometimes adding up to 1,000 miles to journeys, which would raise costs, delay deliveries, and cut off access to key ports. This is especially problematic in a just-in-time (JIT) logistics system, where companies keep minimal inventory on hand and rely on precisely timed deliveries to keep production moving. Designed for efficiency and cost reduction, JIT leaves little room for delay. When shipments arrive late, production lines can halt, downstream deliveries are disrupted, and shortages ripple outward. What begins as a routing adjustment at sea can quickly translate into factory slowdowns, empty shelves, and rising prices. In a more severe scenario, these compounding delays can cause entire supply chains to seize up across industries ranging from electronics to energy, exposing how efficiency-driven systems often sacrifice resilience in the face of disruption.

Rare earths and microchips

Control over rare earths is becoming just as strategically important as control over energy and trade routes. These minerals, essential for everything from EV motors and wind turbines to advanced electronics and military systems, are heavily concentrated in one place: China, which dominates global production and processing. That concentration is now driving a coordinated push to diversify supply chains. Japan and France, for example, recently agreed to deepen cooperation on rare earth sourcing and refining, including a new facility expected to supply a significant share of Japan’s future demand for key materials like dysprosium and terbium. These efforts reflect a broader shift, as countries invest in alternative suppliers, recycling, and joint ventures to reduce reliance on China, which has already demonstrated its willingness to restrict exports for strategic or political leverage. The result is a growing recognition that rare earths are not just industrial inputs, but are also geopolitical tools that are increasingly central to economic security and global power competition.

The Taiwan Strait

The Taiwan Strait has emerged as economically consequential chokepoint. Approximately $2.45 trillion in goods—more than 20% of global maritime trade—passes through it each year. It is also the center of the global semiconductor industry, with Taiwan producing over 90% of the world’s most advanced chips, including 99% of those used for cutting-edge AI systems.

The broader trade exposure is enormous. Taiwan’s ports handle hundreds of billions in goods, while China alone moves roughly $1.3–$1.4 trillion in trade through the strait. U.S. allies are heavily dependent as well: about 32% of Japan’s imports and 30% of South Korea’s imports transit the strait, much of it energy and high-tech components.

China is increasing pressure on Taiwan through military activity, economic leverage, and “gray zone” tactics that fall short of full invasion. These include potential blockades or restrictions on shipping that could disrupt trade without triggering immediate war.

One advantage of the Taiwan Strait is that alternative routes are available, unlike the Strait of Hormuz. This Economist article does a great job of modeling and mapping potential impacts.

However, if conflict and blockade expanded throughout the South China Sea, the consequences would be far worse.

At the same time, uncertainty in U.S. policy and competing global commitments are creating openings for China. Subtle changes in diplomacy or priorities could weaken deterrence, raising the risk of miscalculation. The situation is further complicated by the fact that major powers cannot fully concentrate on multiple theaters at once, increasing the chance that one crisis creates opportunities in another.

In conclusion

The global economy is highly efficient, but also highly concentrated and fragile. A small number of chokepoints carry a disproportionate share of trade, energy, and critical inputs. Disruptions in any one location can cascade quickly across regions, industries, and financial systems.

Countries are responding by stockpiling resources, diversifying supply chains, and investing in domestic production, but these adjustments take time and raise costs. In the near term, the system remains exposed. The question is not whether chokepoints matter, but which one becomes the next breaking point, and how far the shockwaves will spread when it does.

Though this isn’t an article about land invasions or airborne assaults on foreign soil, I do think it appropriate to end with this quote from Lyle Goldstein in his U.S. Naval Institute article comparing Gollipoli and Hormuz:

A closely related point, of course, is that U.S. forces fighting on Iran’s sovereign territory would once again confront the anger of a people defending their homeland. It is no coincidence that the father of modern Turkey, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, arose out of the single extraordinary battle at Gallipoli. After the bitter lessons learned from wars in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq, U.S. strategists should be wary of brazen challenges on foreign soil.

The lesson is simple: chokepoints are inevitable, but chokeholds are not. They emerge when efficiency replaces resilience and when alternatives are ignored. Like in wrestling, the key is not to overpower the hold, but to avoid being caught in it in the first place.

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I recently noticed I had a few items, both personal and professional, that were stagnating on the “back burner” of my to-do list for way too long. When it came down to it, these were things I needed to do, but they were neither fun nor easy, and thus I was avoiding them. Basically, I was procrastinating. I’m sure you can relate.

I read about a time-management system called “Getting Things Done” by David Allen. I won’t go into detail about his system, because there’s a lot packed in there, but one piece of advice stood out to me: when you’re overwhelmed by a project and everything it requires, identify the very next step you need to take, and then take it. He isn’t suggesting that you think only in the short term or avoid building a comprehensive plan for your project. Rather, his advice is about focusing on the immediate future: what is the very next step you must take to move toward the overall end state?

This sounds really simple and obvious, but when it comes to those stagnating “to-do” items, it can be liberating because it takes your mind off the overwhelming scope of the project and instead has you focus on just the next step. You identify the next step and take it. Then repeat.

One Step…

Of course, this idea isn’t new. You’ve likely heard the saying, “How do you eat an elephant?” and the corresponding response, “One bite at a time.” The elephant symbolizes some huge, overwhelming thing you must accomplish. The idea, then, is that you don’t focus on the whole elephant; you focus on the next bite.

I hate to mix food metaphors, but there’s another great saying (possibly by Mark Twain, but that’s unconfirmed) that goes, “Eat a live frog first thing in the morning, and nothing worse will happen to you the rest of the day.” The point is, if you do the gnarliest thing on your list first, then you’ve gotten it out of the way and can go through the day knowing that the other things on your list should be easier to swallow.

The productivity translation of these two metaphors is: identify the next bite you have to take and take it. Get the hard part out of the way and make progress.Those of you who have been through challenging periods in life—where the sheer amount of time you were going to be challenged seemed overwhelming—can relate to these metaphors. Maybe it was military training, or a difficult class, or even a loved one struggling with health issues. You made it through those times by taking it one step at a time. You didn’t make it through by thinking about the enormity of your ordeal. You made it through by thinking about that day, the next meal, the next hour. You made it through by taking the next step, over and over again.

The same holds true for fitness. You don’t focus on losing 80 pounds or running 26 miles—those are overwhelming numbers. You focus on showing up each day. You focus on the next lap, the next rep, the next pound lost. They add up until one day you find yourself halfway to your goal, then halfway the remaining distance, then halfway again, and then eventually all the way there. But this requires taking the next step, over and over again.

The same holds true for education. Whether it’s a bachelor’s, master’s, or even a doctorate degree, when you think about the number of classes you have to take, the number of papers you have to write, or the length of time it’s going to take, it’s overwhelming. Instead, you focus on the next semester, the next class, the next assignment, the next 2,000 words. You make it through by taking the next step over and over again.

The same holds true for managing emotional or health struggles. The enormity of difficulties in life can be overwhelming, and your present condition versus the future better condition can seem a thousand miles apart. But you get there by taking one step after another. Whether it’s overcoming depression, or stress, or an addiction, it’s about making it through one day, then one week, then a month. Then it adds up.

The same holds true for those who accomplish huge feats like making it to the top of Mount Everest—you take one step after another—be it buying gear, training, or literally taking steps up the mountain. Over and over and over and over again.

…Then Another

Those of you who have been through challenging periods in life—where the sheer amount of time you were going to be challenged seemed overwhelming—can relate to these metaphors. Maybe it was military training, or a difficult class, or even a loved one struggling with health issues, you made it through those times by taking it one step at a time. You didn’t make it through by thinking about the enormity of your ordeal, you made it through by thinking about that day, the next meal, the next hour. You made it through by taking the next step, over and over again.

The same holds true for fitness. You don’t focus on losing 80 pounds or running 26 miles—those are overwhelming numbers. You focus on showing up each day. You focus on the next lap, the next rep, the next pound lost. They add up, until one day you find yourself halfway to your goal, then halfway the remaining distance, then halfway again, and then eventually all the way there. But this requires taking the next step, over and over again.

The same holds true for education. Whether it’s a bachelor’s, master’s, or even a doctorate degree, when you think about the number of classes you have to take, the number of papers you have to write, or the length of time it’s going to take, it’s overwhelming. Instead, you focus on the next semester, the next class, the next assignment, the next 2,000 words. You make it through by taking the next step over and over again.

The same holds true for managing emotional or health struggles. The enormity of difficulties in life can be overwhelming, and your present condition versus the future better condition can seem a thousand miles apart. But you get there by taking one step after another. Whether it’s overcoming depression, or stress, or an addiction, it’s about making it through one day, then one week, then a month. Then it adds up.

The same holds true for those who accomplish huge feats like making it to the top of Mount Everest—you take one step after another—be it buying gear, training, or literally taking steps up the mountain. Over and over and over and over again.

Decisiveness + Momentum

This really comes down to two things: taking a step (decisiveness) and continuing to do so (momentum). The more you do this, the more you get used to it, the more progress you make, and the more you get used to making progress.

This reminds me of the book by Bill Bryson titled “A Walk in the Woods,” in which he details his hike on the Appalachian Trail. He tells about the trials of hiking for days and miles on end, and how it all comes down to taking one step after another. Some hikers, as he tells it, make it to the end of the entire 2,168-mile Appalachian Trail journey only to find themselves turning around and continuing back the other way simply because it’s what they’re used to doing—taking the next step.

When making decisions and moving forward becomes normal, you find momentum of action. This isn’t to say that hard decisions become easy, but it means you’re not putting them off, and when you get used to making hard decisions, your ability and process for making hard decisions becomes more routine.

Illustrations from Physics

Physics provides us a couple of illustrations as well: Newton’s third law and friction.

Simply put, Newton’s third law states that an object that is at rest will stay at rest unless a force acts upon it, and an object that is in motion will not change its velocity unless a force acts upon it. Said even more simply, an object at rest stays at rest, and an object in motion stays in motion.

As a quick physics refresher, static friction is friction between two objects that are not moving; kinetic friction is friction between two objects that are moving relative to each other. What’s interesting is that static friction exerts greater force than that of kinetic friction. As an example of this, think about a time when you had to push something heavy across the floor—getting the object moving took more effort than keeping it moving, once it overcame static friction.

OK, I know mechanical physics doesn’t play a direct role in accomplishing your to-do list, but there is a bit of psychological physics that comes into play. First, your stagnating to-do list items likely won’t accomplish themselves—you will have to exert some force, some action. Second, it may require a lot of force to get it going, but once you overcome the initial force resistance, less work should be required.

Application

So, what’s been stagnating on your to-do list? What are you dreading doing? Identify the next step, and take it. “Eat the frog,” as Mark Twain might say. Then repeat. Be decisive (make decisions and take a step forward), then keep your momentum and do it again.

As Tony Stark from the Avengers said, “I need a day when there aren’t twenty crises to deal with, but I don’t see that coming any time soon.” So, you might as well start dealing with the crises now.

Go forth and take action!

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Having gotten addicted to the ease of coding having AI code for me, I tried my hand at another project this week. All I can say is that I continue to be blown away by what AI is able to do—at least when it comes to HTML coding, which is used to display content in a web browser.

If you’ve been a reader of Curated Compositions for a while, you know that I have an affinity for teaching people about geography and the location of countries in the world. I’ve published a few guides out there to help people memorize the names and locations of certain countries in North America and Central America, South America, and Europe (in three parts). As part of those posts, I shared websites that quiz you on country locations. For this particular coding project, I had AI make my own quiz game.

Last week I used Anthropic’s Claude to do the programming (for me); this week I used OpenAI’s Codex.

Here’s a screenshot of the game:

You can play it here.

A few overall notes:

• The entire process occurred over the course of the week as I had free time. Added up, the back and forth with Codex only took me a total of ~30 minutes. And in that time, I had a fully-functioning, shareable map game that does the following:

  • Shows a map of world that you can pan and zoom

  • Asks you to identify the location of a specific country on the map

  • If you click on the correct country, it highlights that country in green, then says “Correct” and shows you that country’s flag, population and area

  • If you click on an incorrect country, it allows you to try again. If you are wrong a second time, it highlights the region of the world that country is in. If you are wrong a third time, it says “Incorrect” and then shows the location.

• According to Codex, the game contains 735 lines of code and required “meaningful amounts” of CSS and JavaScript logic. ChatGPT tells me that for a human to do that quantity and type of coding would take an experienced developer between 1 to 2 days (8 to 16 hours) and a beginner 1-2 weeks.

• I had to download the Codex app to my computer and used it to do the vibe coding.

• I pay for ChatGPT Pro, so I did not hit any usage limits. Codex tells me that if you had the free version, “You could still build it on a free tier, but you’d usually hit limits faster (message caps, smaller context window, slower/more fragmented iteration), so it would likely take more sessions and more manual stitching together.”

• Just like the last app I built used AI to build, I am having Netlify host this app for free

A few notes on the process I followed:

I didn’t immediately start with a world map, I started with the prompt, “Can you create a map of east asia that when I mouseover a country it tells me what country that is.” The first version was absolutely terrible:

So, I said as much:

After that, things went much better, but still required tweaks along the way.

Once Codex got the base map and mouseover correct, I proceeded with the following prompts:

• “Now, can you make it so that when I click on a country you open up a side panel that shows that country’s flag, area size, and population? If so, please proceed.”

• “Can you make an entire world map like this? If so, please proceed.”

• “Ok, using all of this as a starting ground, let’s make a game. I want you to provide me the name of a country, if I click on the correct country, i get a point, then you provide me another country and so on. If I fail to get the country correct, you tell me to try again. If I fail a second time, then you highlight the continent it is on and I guess again. If I get it wrong a third time, then you highlight the country yourself and then give me a new country to find. make sense?”

• “a few things are wrong with the game: 1) I don't want the country name revealed when i mouse over it, 2) the region highlight isn't working after the second fail, 3) once the user selects the correct country or they don't and the country is revealed, it immediately moves on to the next country. Instead, I want the country to remain highlighted and a button to be added that says "next country" once the user clicks on that button a new country name is revealed for them to find.”

• “This good; however, the region highlight still isn't working. Let's do it this way: let's categories all countries as being in the following regions, and then use these regions as the ones you highlight: (North America, Latin America & Caribbean, Europe, Africa, Middle East, Central Asia, South Asia, East Asia, Southeast Asia, Oceana)”

  • This problem took a few more “nope, this isn’t working, do better” prompts, but AI eventually fixed the problem.

• “Excellent, this is great! Next add: make a big green image that appears on the right in green that says “Correct!” when the user gets it correct”

• “Well done. FOr the next change: the underlying map shows the country names (in their native language). Is there a map out there that is exactly the same as the one you’re using that does not have the names of the countries?”

• “well done. next changes: 1) add red banner that says "Incorrect" if they are not successful in finding the country (just like the green button for when they got it correct. 2) once the country is revealed (whether correct or incorrect), also show on the right their flag, population, and area (in square miles)”

As you can see above, my grammar and instructions are very loose (incorrect capitalization, missing words, improper punctuation, vague wording)—thus the “vibe” part of vibe coding. But, I did try to be specific with problems I was seeing and changes I wanted.

Overall, I continue to be very impressed with what I can do considering I know very little about programming.

Lastly, I probably killed a tree or two by using filler words like “please,” “well done,” and “excellent.” Who knows how much computing power and energy that ate up and how many more data centers are needed to process my niceties. I try to be nice to AI so that in the future, when Terminator comes to my house, he remembers that I was kind to his ancestors.

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It’s that time of the biennial when we gather around the television and root for the very best athletes in the world as they compete for Olympic medals.

From the opening notes of The Bugler’s Dream (daaaah–DAAAH da-da da da da…), to the athlete backstories, to the fierce competition and international rivalries, the Olympics are generally a time of good vibes. And, whether it’s the sheer speed of downhill skiing or the artistry of figure skating, there’s usually something for everyone.

I realized this week that just about every Olympic sport can be narrowed down to five basic types of competition—at least in terms of how they’re scored:

• Speed

• Accuracy

• Strength

• Distance

• Artistry

Sometimes there’s overlap in categories, like figure skating. You might think this sport is solely scored on artistry, but the Technical Element score reflects precision (accuracy) and physical difficulty (strength).

I also realized that most Winter Olympic sports have parallels to other sporting events. Sometimes the parallels are more obvious, like snowboarding and skateboarding, and speed skating and running around a track. Other times, it’s less obvious, like bobsledding and kayaking.

Here’s a spreadsheet I put together to show how it all fits:

Full disclosure: I built this chart in about 15 minutes and took several creative liberties, so I’m sure there are things you might disagree with.

Still, using this handy guide, you can now decide which Olympic events to watch based on how you like sports to be scored—or based on other sports you already enjoy.

Have fun.

Oh—you’re one of those strange people who don’t like spreadsheets?

You’d prefer “an app for that” instead?

Okay, fine. Let’s make an app.

“Vibe coding” is all the rage these days. What is vibe coding? It’s AI-assisted coding—think coding for people who don’t really know how to code. You simply tell your favorite AI what you want to build, and it writes the code for you.

Recently, Anthropic’s AI, Claude, made headlines for how well it handles vibe coding, so, I signed up for yet another AI account and decided to give Claude a shot.

I uploaded the spreadsheet above, along with a copy-and-pasted list of TV event times from here and gave Claude this prompt:

“Using the attached documents, develop a spinner app that lets you pick an Olympic sport to watch based on what types of activities you like or how sports are scored, then display the day and time that sport will be on TV.”

The first app it built was in a .JSX file that I had no idea what to do with. Claude walked me through it all, but I still wasn’t sure how to upload it to the web, so I asked if it could build the app in a web-friendly code. A few minutes later, out came an HTML version.

Below, my friends, is a screenshot of the app:

To me, this is genuinely impressive. Not only did Claude do what I asked, but it also added icons, colors and animated falling snowflakes. Mind you, I have no coding skills, nor did this require any.

If you’d like to try the spinner yourself, you can do so HERE on Netlify.com—an app hosting site Claude also told me about. By the way, I did all of this with the free versions of Claude and Netlify.

Good vibes, for sure.

The goal here wasn’t to create an award-winning app, but to simply give vibe coding a try. If you’re a young person looking to make yourself more competitive in the marketplace, I’d strongly suggest giving vibe coding a try—employers will be wanting to know if you can do this type of thing. If a middle-aged guy like me can do it, I’m confident you can too.

Now, it’s time to go watch a team-based event scored by accuracy—otherwise known as hockey.

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In some future posts, I’ll share some of the lessons we learned from the past few years, and final days, of helping my mom. But for now, below is the obituary my brother and I put together to honor her. My mom was a special person whom I want you all to know.

Nancy Rendell of Austin, Texas, passed away on Sunday, November 30th at the age of 77. She was born on May 12th, 1948, in Austin, Texas, where she grew up and lived most of her life.

Nancy loved all things Austin. She graduated from Lanier High School, where she met many of her lifelong friends; she rooted for the Texas Longhorns; she had a taste for Tex-Mex and margaritas; and she spoke fondly of the many unique Austin landmarks that were cool before they became the crowded attractions of today.

Like the rest of her family, she was creative. She loved to sew, a skill and passion she picked up at an early age. She ran her own sewing business, designing, making and selling items ranging from clothing to housewares. She helped create elaborate outfits and themes for work Halloween parties and even wrote speeches and poems to accompany them. She also crafted costumes for her beloved grandsons, from Star Wars characters to fire fighters to race car drivers, depending on their interests at the time.

Nancy loved to travel, a trait she picked up from her parents who would take her and her siblings on road trips around the U.S. in their station wagon and home-built travel trailer. As an adult, she enjoyed seeing new places, learning the history of those places, and then trying to teach her sons to appreciate those places. They were unenthusiastic, especially as teenagers, but now as adults they embrace travel and history and appreciation of places in this world. She had an especially fond appreciation of New Mexico, it’s culture and scenery, from her time living in Los Alamos. Her sewing creations, Christmas ornaments, and home decorations reflected this.

Nancy had a heart for the less fortunate. She worked for the Texas Attorney General’s office as in investigator, tracking down parents who failed to pay child support. She really enjoyed her job, and she was good at it. After she retired, she donated her time and talents to put together tote bags with homemade items for children in foster care. And anyone who knew Nancy knew how much she loved the small dogs she had over the years—mini poodles she often rescued—who doted on her as much as she did on them.

She never met a stranger, always willing to jump into conversation with every passerby. They were often treated to stories of her past and of her family, sometimes unwillingly. She was a loving and dedicated mother who continued to provide life advice to her sons up until the end. She was proud of her sons, and they are proud of her.

Despite her many compounding health issues, Nancy was a perennial optimist, always finding and voicing the positives in every situation. In many ways, it was this positive attitude that helped her endure difficult and painful moments in life. Even throughout her last days, she remained a child at heart, finding happiness in little things like funny videos, jewelry, coordinating outfits, and Hatch Green Chile & Sweet Lime cookies from H-E-B.

Nancy loved people, loved music, and loved to dance. Most of all, though, she loved Jesus and found true joy in knowing Him as her savior. She looked forward to being with Him in heaven and no longer being in pain. Now she enjoys both.

Nancy is survived by her sons, Brian (Michele) Rendell and Travis (Ashley) Rendell; her grandsons, Caleb Rendell and Ethan Rendell; her brother, Terry Schultz; her sister-in-law, Donna Schultz; and her dear nieces, Krista, Jenny, and Jessica.

She is preceded in death by her parents, Omar and Dorothy Schultz, and her sister, Diane Schultz.

This past March, I wrote an article titled It’ll get worse before it gets better. My summary was as follows:

When it comes to the U.S. economy, it’ll get worse before it gets better. But my hope is that it gets better by November 2026, here’s why:

Elections

Mid-term elections occur in November 2026. If Republicans want to maintain control of the House, Senate, and state/local seats, then positive change must occur by then.

Economy

Our nation’s debt-to-GDP ratio is over 100%; if this were to continue, we will be unable to pay for Social Security in 10 years. Though both political parties have contributed to this problem over the past 24 years, it’s unreasonable to think they can both bring it down in another 24 years—that’s simply too long, and not likely to come to fruition. Thus, decades of overspending need to be reined in over a shorter period of time than it took to build it up.

Expediency

Though shifting employees from public-sector (government) jobs to private-sector jobs will help lower government spending, that shift doesn’t happen overnight. The private sector can’t just build infrastructure or capacity quickly. Moreover, many businesses and non-government organizations depend on government contracts and grants; cuts in these will also impact unemployment and delay growth.

Thus, this is why the current administration is moving fast to tear things down, because it will take time to build them back up, and they only have until next November.

The question is, can they do it in such a way that doesn’t break the entire economy.

Eight months later, I’m covering where we stand.

If I have any recommendations for you readers, it’s these:

• Diversify your investments by sector and region (international)

• Spend within your means, build up your savings, pay off/stay out of debt to the degree that you’re able

• Work hard, become good at something, be irreplaceable in your workplace

• Most importantly, the administration must do things that propel our economy forward and help common Americans

Elections

In the recent November elections we saw the first part the above summary play out—positive change must occur or the people will voice their concerns at the ballot box. With regard to the economy, positive change has not occurred, thus the economy was a key component to Democrats’ wins.

One of the narratives around Mamdani’s win in New York City is that young people there are fed up with capitalism. Burdened with student debt, unable to find a job, and unable to buy a home, the American Dream does not seem achievable for many of them, so they are looking for a different system. Back in 2020, billionaire conservative Peter Thiel articulated this appeal of socialism for millennials and warned that something must be done to address their concerns.

So, let’s talk about the economy then.

Economy

I have more charts showing negative economic indicators than I have room for in this article, so I’ll just highlight some important ones.

The only thing that seems to be doing well is the stock market, and that’s due to “The Magnificent Seven”—Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla—which account for 40% of the S&P 500. Consider this: the S&P 500 has nearly doubled in just five years.

The title of this Wall Street Journal article captures the dichotomy of our economy: Feeling Great About the Economy? You Must Own Stocks. It’s an excellent read that highlights our current K-shaped—one in which affluent Americans are doing well, while lower-income Americans are struggling (and voicing their concerns)—see chart below:

My concern here is two-fold: the obvious one is the squeeze on low-income families, the other is that affluent Americans are driving much of the spending in our economy and if that stops, then there might be an accelerating downward spiral.

Artificial Intelligence

The thing I struggle with most here is that much of the stock market growth is driven by spending on AI; however, I’m not seeing (my first use of this phrase) where AI is producing value for our economy (yet). I fully admit that there are a lot of things I don’t know in this world, so I may be missing something here, but it all seems very self-perpetuating:

I use AI almost daily. It’s very useful, it saves me a lot of time on things that I do on my computer. In that regard, it makes me more efficient, but that’s not the case for everyone, and I don’t have a number for how my efficiency (or others’) is impacting the economy. I do know it didn’t help me do yard work today.

Aside from construction on data centers, which is sizeable, I’m just not seeing (second use of this phrase) where it’s driving job growth. Perhaps it’s so transformational that we don’t even know how it will change our job market. The only thing I am seeing is that the demand for service jobs will go up—these are the things AI can’t do well (yet).

If there’s a bright side to the AI spending, it’s that the majority of AI-related capital expenditures are being financed through cash and earnings rather than debt. Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan had this to say: “while some features of the current period rhyme with past bubbles, and the circularity of deals warrants caution, public market valuations and capital market activity levels remain below their Dot-Com peaks.” And, “most of the Mag 7 continue to generate outsized free cash flows, engage in stock buybacks, and pay dividends—behavior seldom seen during the Dot-Com Bubble.”

The same report cautions, “While valuations and funding models suggest we are not yet in a bubble, the significant outperformance of technology has indeed led to a dangerous degree of market concentration across geographies, sectors, and stocks. The US market’s consistent outperformance over the past 15 years—which has resulted in it accounting for over 60% of the global stock market—is largely attributable to the technology sector’s record share of the US index. Such concentration is extreme, with the top 10 US companies alone making up nearly a quarter of the global public equity market.”

The bottom line advice from Goldman: diversify your stocks by region and sector, and consider the energy requirements for those data centers.

My thoughts: now might be a good time for the US to invest more in nuclear energy, after all, Microsoft is doing it by reopening Three-Mile Island to power its data centers.

Tariffs, Trade, and Manufacturing

I’m also not seeing (third use of this phrase) a net-positive impact of tariffs. Most of the time consumers pay the increased cost, and the intended purpose of increasing manufacturing in the US does not seem to be panning out:

There’s simply too much uncertainty for companies to commit to building manufacturing facilities that would result in jobs. Part of that uncertainty comes from the economy, and part of that comes from whipsawing trade policies.

Jobs & Personal Finance

Speaking of job growth, the recent round of tens-of-thousands of layoffs isn’t helping the economy or consumer sentiment. Over a million jobs have been cut so far this year—that’s 65% more than this time last year, and the highest since COVID.

Interest rates continue to be high and uncertainty about the economy means that companies are cautious about growth and hiring. This, I believe, is why Christmas stuff and advertisements are out earlier than usual (more on this later). Companies are thinking, ‘Grab as much of the spending as early as possible,’ because the bill will come due.

Speaking of bills, total household debt is up:

Again, more charts here than I have space for, but here are four that stand out from the Fed:

1. The number of people who are severely derogatory and 120+ days delinquent on paying debt is up:

2. A growing portion of this debt is being held by 30 year olds:

3. Student loan delinquency has spiked, and auto loan delinquency has risen:

4. Those people in their 20s and 30s are most delinquent in paying their bills:

This all brings us full circle to elections. Young people need jobs, and things must stabilize for companies to hire people.

I haven’t even talked about Social Security here, which was my primary concern in my original article. Bottom line: the situation hasn’t improved, because government spending versus income haven’t improved.

Expediency

I see two reasons why companies rolled out Christmas decorations, music, and advertisements the day after Halloween—two months before the actual holiday1: 1) Nostalgia—Christmas “feels” good for most Americans, so when consumer sentiment is down, they’re helping people feel better. They do this, ultimately, to help their own 2) Revenue—Because, when the music stops (pun intended), they need to capture as much of the seasonal spending as soon as they can…and who knows when it will stop.

Once January (or December) rolls around and credit card bills come due from Christmas spending, the impact on consumer credit will be telling. As Warren Buffett is famous for saying, “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”

Something must propel the economy forward. Foreign relations, the federal budget, housing, jobs—these things must be addressed. Americans are looking for normalcy, economic confidence, and hope that things will get better…sooner rather than later.

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Who’s that guy?

In 2017, I was walking through the airport in Austin when I saw a man sitting at a nondescript table writing on something. I recognized the trophy on the table before I recognized the person—it was the Heisman Trophy. Only after I read the plaque on the trophy did I realize that the person at the table was Earl Campbell. He was signing a football.

I was already running late for my flight, so I didn’t have time to get an autograph, but I did snap the photo below as I passed by. There was only one person getting an autograph. No one else was in line.

Earl Campbell was a famous football running back. He played for the Texas Longhorns in the 1970s, won the Heisman Trophy for being the top player in college football, and then went on to play for the Houston Oilers before retiring in 1986. He was legendary at The University of Texas at Austin, yet now, in the place where he became famous, he was being passed by hundreds, if not thousands, of people.

Earl Campbell, though great in his time, saw his fame fade as new "greats" arose—University of Texas running backs like Ricky Williams in the 1990s and Cedric Benson in the 2000s. However, even those players faded from public attention.

This made me think about people like Julie Andrews, Frankie Avalon, Chubby Checker, Rick Moranis, Emilio Estevez, Mia Sara, Christian Slater—all famous at one time, and yet many young people today have likely never heard of them, even though these once-famous people are all still alive.

We often miss this “turnover” of fame, fooled by the illusion that success and fame are both attainable and lasting. But they’re not—because of something I call the Never-Ending New.

The Arc of our Life

When we imagine the journey to fame, we picture rising to the top and staying there. Life is gravy after that.

We picture it like this:

But what really happens is that someone rises to the top, has a moment—or maybe even a period—of popularity, and then fades. This is what actually happens:

And because there’s always someone else rising to the top, the arc is repeated by new individuals becoming popular and famous:

Since the arcs overlap, it seems like popularity is continual, but it’s really just the continual top that we see. Here’s a more accurate depiction of our perception (blue) versus reality (gray) of popularity and fame:

In the aggregate there is perpetual popularity. But at the individual level, there isn’t.

Also in reality, those arcs aren’t equal. Some peak sooner, some later, and some flame out after a brief flash. These are the one-hit wonders. Occasionally, some last for years, maybe decades. Life-spanning popularity is nearly impossible.

Ted Gioia, in his essay How Long Does Pop Culture Stardom Last?, noted:

I’ve long believed that 80 years is a typical span of pop culture fame for superstars. I’m referring to the biggest names—the lesser stars burn out in 80 months or 80 weeks or 80 days. But the top draws retain their fame for the entire lifetime of their youngest fans—and given current life expectancies of the U.S. audience, that can’t be much more than 80 years.

Here’s an even more accurate depiction of our perception (blue) versus reality (gray) of popularity:

As Gioia explains, that 80-year fame applies only to the superstars—the best of the best.

The average career length is in the NFL is just 3.3 years. It’s only 2.57 years for a running back. The average career length in the NBA is 4.5 years.

A study of over 2.4 million actors found that "one-hit wonders"—actors with only one credited year—are the norm, not the exception. The study also found that the unemployment rate in acting hovers around 90%, and that only about 2% of actors are able to make a living out of acting. That’s not surprising, since the median salary is of a professional actor is $23 per hour.

Another study of YouTubers found that 96.5% of them won’t make enough money to even rise above the poverty line.

Most people who dream of making it to the top fail to understand how rare it is to get there, much less stay there.

As I said earlier, in the aggregate, popularity is perpetual, but at the individual level, it isn’t. The ever-present nature of the high-visibility roles makes fame feel like it lasts longer than it really does for any one person.

This is because of two factors:

1. These high-profile roles always exist.

2. There will always be a "best" among them.

There must always be running backs on NFL teams, and among them, there will always be somone considered the best. Fame is a constant game of King of the Hill—the only constants are the hill and the place at the top.

There will always be the most famous actor, most-viewed YouTube channel, top business leader, richest person, and highest-ranking general. Every field will have a "top," a "best," a "highest-paid."

There’s always a new Survivor champion. A new winner on The Voice. A new reality show to replace The Voice. And one day, hopefully, a new trend to replace reality TV…although I don’t expect it to be better. After all, there will always be awards and recognition for the best in every field and profession, no matter how bad the “best” are.

There’s an old joke: “What do you call the lowest-ranked graduate at medical school?”

The answer: “Doctor.”

To accentuate my point: “What do you call the lowest-ranked graduate at the worst medical school in the world?”

Once again: “Doctor.”

This joke applies to any field. Even the worst military in the world still has generals.

Thanks to the ever-expanding content of the internet, cable TV, and social media, there are more hills being created every day, which makes it feel like there are more opportunities for “fame.” Fame feels more achievable, and thus more people pursue it. For this very reason, fame becomes diluted, and if it ever had any meaning, that meaning is now lost.

But we’re not just diluting fame, really we’re doing is diluting the idea of what excellence and true flourishing in our world look like. Don’t be fooled by titles or trophies or trends. They don’t always reflect true excellence. And even when they do, the top rarely stays popular for long.

The world is made up of people who work hard, take care of their families, and know little fame. Most of us are the gray arc:

But because we’re all different, it’s more like this:

Really, though, it’s made up of millions of arcs, which collectively form this:

And since people and fame existed before us, we can cut off the left side. What we’re left with is the mass of humanity spread out over time. Across the top is a feeling of perpetual fame.

I’m reminded of the Ship of Theseus, a thought experiment that questions whether a ship whose boards are replaced one-by-one remains the same ship once all parts have been replaced. We’re on a constant voyage aboard the Ship of Theseus, never stopping to realize the boards are continually being replaced, yet it seems like the same ship.

Contributing Factors

There are a number of factors contributing to the illusion.

In his 2013 essay The Lottery Society, William Deresiewicz critiques a culture where success seems increasingly based on luck—viral fame, reality TV, influencer culture. Even if the statistics of winning are uncertain, the perception is enough to drive millions toward the fame game.

We also live in an attention economy. Businesses compete for your eyes and clicks. They’re happy to promote you if it helps promote themselves.

David Perell, in his essay Never-Ending Now (the title of which inspired the title of my post), describes the trap:

The structure of our social media feeds place us in a Never-Ending Now. Like hamsters running on a wheel, we live in an endless cycle of ephemeral content consumption—a merry-go-round that spins faster and faster but barely goes anywhere.

We’re trapped in a Never-Ending Now—blind to our place in history, engulfed in the present moment, overwhelmed by the slightest breeze of chaos.

This creates a dangerous dynamic: people chasing fame, and businesses cheering them on.

One outcome is what I call “trend society”—that pressure to adopt whatever’s new, popular, or faddish: the next iPhone, Crocs sandals, bell-bottoms, Golden Goose shoes, rubber wristbands…the list is endless.

To what extent do you follow the next new thing? Do you do it to stand out, or to blend in? Or to blend in by standing out?

The desire to be popular is widespread. But having lived long enough, I know how utterly exhausting that life would be—the need to always be relevant, to always create, to always perform. Constantly chasing popularity is a fool’s errand.

Conclusion

In case you’re under the perception that this is a new problem, reflect on what Marcus Aurelius wrote 2,000 years ago:

About fame: Look at the minds of those who seek fame, observe what they are, and what kind of things they avoid, and what kind of things they pursue. And consider that as the heaps of sand piled on one another hide the former sands, so in life the events which go before are soon covered by those which come after.

This applies to every field where popularity is measured—actors, athletes, scientists, even your profession. You must understand: there will always be a "top." Someone will always be touted as the best. And there will always be someone new.

So don’t be fooled into thinking that you will get there—or that if you do you will stay there. Frankly, how exhausting would that be?

Here are some tips to avoid the traps of fame and popularity:

• Work hard for the sake of working hard, growing in your wisdom and abilities, and accomplishing things. Don’t do it for fame or recognition.

• Pursue a thing because you enjoy doing it, while also knowing you may not enjoy doing it all of the time.

• If fame comes, stay humble. Someone younger, smarter, and better looking is on the way to replace you.

• The higher you rise, the farther you fall—unless you keep your ego grounded.

• People who chase fame and money often compromise their morals. Their fame and popularity are fleeting. Pursue excellence in your daily life.

• Don’t strive for popularity—and don’t stake your personal worth, or net worth, on things that depend on popularity.

It’s okay to be good at something. If being good brings fame, that’s fine. But remember: some of the most talented people are not famous, and some of the most famous people are not talented.

Ted Gioia wrote, “...the only thing that lasts forever in pop culture is the fact that nothing lasts forever.” While I agree, I’d amend it slightly: “The only thing that lasts forever in pop culture is pop culture.”

As we celebrate our country’s 249^th birthday (big one coming up next year!), I thought I’d share a couple of articles to make you feel a little better about our country, and how to make it better.

But first, some history.

Instead of leading with “Happy Independence Day!”, perhaps I should say “Happy Fourth of July!” Because, despite what you might think, Independence Day celebrates neither the day we earned our independence nor the day we began to battle for independence. The great day for which this holiday remembers, falls on the anniversary of our “Declaration of Independence,” not our “Earning of Independence.” This day in history was not the final stroke—either in writing or in combat—of our struggle for independence.

Nor was it the beginning of America’s war for independence. The colonies had already been in the throes of conflict against the British Crown.The Stamp Act of 1765 resulted in riots and protests across the colonies, and the Tea Act of 1773 led to the Boston Tea Party. Discontent grew until on April 19,1775, the famous “shot heard round the world” kicked off the battles of Lexington and Concord. In June of that same year, the Continental Army was formed, and George Washington was appointed commander-in-chief. By 1776, we were a full year into battles of the American Revolutionary War.

The grievances against the British government piled up. Twenty-seven of them, ranging from obstruction of justice, interference with self-government, economic exploitation, and the use of British armies, are listed in the Declaration itself.

And despite multiple attempts to reason with the British government, no positive changes were made. The Declaration acknowledges this:

We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which, would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity.

So, we officially broke away, declaring our independence in July 1776.

King George III of England did not publicly acknowledge our declaration until October 1776 in his a speech before British Parliament. He opened by chastising us, his delusional “unhappy people”:

Nothing could have afforded me so much satisfaction as to have been able to inform you, at the opening of this session, that the troubles, which have so long distracted my colonies in North America, were at an end; and that my unhappy people, recovered from their delusion, had delivered themselves from the oppression of their leaders, and returned to their duty: but so daring and desperate is the spirit of those leaders, whose object has always been dominion and power, that they have now openly renounced all allegiance to the crown, and all political connection with this country; they have rejected, with circumstances of indignity and insult, the means of conciliation held out to them under the authority of our commission; and have presumed to set up their rebellious confederacies for independent states.

I especially appreciate the ironies of the closing lines in his speech, with subtleties delivered in typical monarchical fashion:

No people ever enjoyed more happiness, or lived under a milder government, than those now revolted provinces: the improvements in every art, of which they boast, declare it; their numbers, their wealth, their strength by sea and land, which they think sufficient to enable them to make head against the whole power of the mother-country, are irrefragable proofs of it. My desire is to restore to them the blessings of law and liberty, equally enjoyed by every British subject, which they have fatally and desperately exchanged for all the calamities of war, and the arbitrary tyranny of their chiefs.

Yeah…the colonists were happy, and the government overlords were mild. I’m sure the colonists were eager to be restored to the “blessings of law and liberty.”

For the next five years we warred.

The final major military engagement of the American Revolutionary War occurred at the Battle of Yorktown, in September and October 1781. But it wasn’t until September 1783 that the Treaty of Paris was signed, officially ending the war.

So, if you think of Independence Day as a final event, a celebration of victory, you’re missing the whole story. It was but a declaration—a very important one—amid other actions and events and battles that ultimately led to our actual independence.

Articles

In this piece, Bari Weiss discusses the “Join, or Die” cartoon created by Benjamin Franklin and its relevance today. In her words, “This Independence Day, we don’t just celebrate the birthday of the words that made us—but the choice to live by them two and a half centuries later.”

The Free Press

Bari Weiss: American Regeneration

As we approach July 4, I’ve been thinking a lot about this cartoon…

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9 months ago · 1116 likes · 396 comments · Bari Weiss

The author’s lead-in to the below piece: “My brother-in-law is a truck-driving, Rogan-listening Covid skeptic. I was a speechwriter for Obama. I assumed we’d never be friends. I was wrong.”

The Free Press

You Don’t Need the Same Politics to Surf Together

Here at The Free Press, we believe in loving thy neighbor. And this week, in which we celebrate the birth of our nation, is perhaps the best reminder that Americans can work together, even when we have wildly different habits and diverging beliefs. So it’s our pleasure to share an excerpt from a brand-new memoir, by onetime Barack Obama speechwriter David Litt—who thought he and his truck-driving, Joe Rogan-listening, vaccine skeptical brother-in-law had absolutely nothing in common. Until they started surfing together. —The Editors…

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9 months ago · 392 likes · 380 comments · David Litt

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Some History

Memorial Day honors those who died while serving in our country’s armed forces. Though it wasn’t named Memorial Day until after World War I, the holiday traces its roots to observances that followed the Civil War. It is a sad and unfortunate fact that it was in our own civil war that we lost the most troops—nearly three quarters of a million. The war where the most soldiers died was the one we fought against ourselves.

The Battle of Gettysburg occurred in Pennsylvania in 1863 from July 1 to July 3, resulting in Union forces defeating Confederate forces. This was halfway through the American Civil War, which lasted from 1861 to 1865. Over 7,000 soldiers were killed at Gettysburg, and more than 30,000 were wounded. It was the deadliest battle of the Civil War.

Four months later, on November 19, 1863, approximately 15,000 people gathered at the battlefield to commemorate the sacrifice of Union soldiers. Abraham Lincoln’s speech lasted only a few minutes, which was two hours shorter than the previous speech given that day. It was so short, that photographers didn’t even get of photo of him speaking. The below image is all we have of him, and it was taken before he spoke.

Zooming in, we see a blurry Lincoln in the center.

The Gettysburg Address

Before we get into my analysis, I recommend you read through the speech in its entirety. I even recommend speaking it out loud to get its full effect.

Four score and seven years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent, a new nation, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.

Now we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation, or any nation so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure. We are met on a great battle-field of that war. We have come to dedicate a portion of that field, as a final resting place for those who here gave their lives that that nation might live. It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do this.

But, in a larger sense, we can not dedicate—we can not consecrate—we can not hallow—this ground. The brave men, living and dead, who struggled here, have consecrated it, far above our poor power to add or detract. The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here. It is for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced. It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us—that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion—that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain—that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom—and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.

An Analysis

When reading the speech, the first thing that stands out is the rhythm, and how it carries you along, flowing from one phase to another. Yes, there are abrupt stops, like throughout the second paragraph, but those, I think, are intended to cause pause and reflection on purpose. The last sentence in that second paragraph really serves as a period to the first two paragraphs.

From there, the third paragraph grows in scope and tone, building on phrasing in previous sentences. It peaks at the final sentence, a lengthy 82 words, almost half of the entire speech! This last sentence not only ties together themes throughout the speech, but encapsulates a vision for the future.

As you dissect the speech, you’ll notice the following key themes:

• Birth, life and death: fathers, birth, conceived, new, live, lives, living, dead, died, perish, final resting place

• Balance and comparison: civil war, testing, gave lives…that nation live, living and dead, above our poor power, add or detract, larger sense…little note, long remember…never forget, we say…they did, dedicated to work rather than saying words, fought, dedicated to task rather than saying words, us the living…these dead, birth/living & dead, that & this, there & here, they & we

• Alliteration: four…fathers…forth, score…seven, continent…conceived, new nation, poor power

• Rhyme: great, dedicate, consecrate,

• Repetition: we - 10, here - 8, dedicate(d) - 6, dead/died - 4, nation - 5, lives/living - 4

• Sense of place (that zooms in, then zooms back out): this continent, a new nation, a battlefield, a portion of that field, this ground, here, this nation, the earth

• Sense of vision focused on the future and progress: a new nation; to the proposition that all men are created equal; any nation; can long endure; final resting place; nation might live; long remember; unfinished work; thus far so nobly advanced; great task remaining before us; that cause; not have died in vain; new birth of freedom; that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish

To illustrate these attributes, I created a diagram that breaks each sentence and phrase into its corresponding component, so you can see how much is really embedded in this short speech.

You can download it here:

Gettysburg Address

28.8KB ∙ PDF file

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Now, let’s look at each sentence, phrase and word.

“Four score and seven years ago our fathers brought forth, on this continent, a new nation, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.”

• We start with a time, 87 years in the past, 1776. This frames the speech, and is important for timing and wording, which changes as the speech makes its pivot.

• Clever alliteration, both with “fathers” and “forth,” but also a similar “ah” sound in “fathers” and “brought.”

• Size-wise, he starts with “continent,” but then scales down to “nation,” soon we’ll focus more narrowly.

• He uses two words that will repeat throughout—”conceive” and “dedicate.” The birth/conception one is especially important; it starts here with, “conceived in Liberty,” then the entire speech ends with “new birth.”

• “the proposition that all men are created equal” - this is the first of ideals and vision for the future that he posits. There will be many.

  ---

“Now we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation, or any nation so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure.”

• He transitions from history (four score and seven years ago) to present (now).

• Interesting that he doesn’t use the word “fighting” here, but instead uses “engaged,” which is a softer word. He uses “fighting” later on, but in past tense and referring to those “who fought” to advance unfinished work.

• The first reference to balance and comparison by using the word “testing.”

• “testing whether that nation or any nation…can long endure” - I also see this phrasing as part of his focus on vision/future/progress.

• This is the first time he refers back to something in the speech by saying “that nation;” he will use this technique multiple times.

• He repeats the words “conceived” and “dedicated.”

  ---

“We are met on a great battle-field of that war.”

• First use of the word “great,” which also rhymes with “consecrate” and “dedicate.”

• “That war” – referring back to the civil war mentioned earlier in speech.

  ---

“We have come to dedicate a portion of that field, as a final resting place for those who here gave their lives that that nation might live.”

• Use of “dedicate” again, but in a different sense; the first was dedicated to a cause, now we are dedicating in honor.

• “That field” – referring back to the battlefield.

• “That nation” – referring back to the nation dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.

• We started at continent, then scaled down to nation, then battlefield, now a portion of that field.

• First and second use of the word “live,” but in two different ways that balance one another—”gave lives”…so “nation might live.”

• The word “here” is snuck in in such a way that we almost don’t even notice it. Throughout the rest of the speech this word will appear seven more times.

  ---

“It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do this.”

• This is the big pivot point in the speech, as noted by the next sentence starting with “but.”

• On the surface, I think this phrase relates to the dedication the field, but when taken more broadly, I think it refers to being engaged in a civil war to test whether a nation, dedicated to the idea that all men are created equal, can endure.

  ---

“But, in a larger sense, we can not dedicate—we can not consecrate—we can not hallow—this ground.”

• Lincoln zooms out here to a broader view by use of the phrase “larger sense.”

• Again, he uses “dedicate” and “consecrate.”

• We also now see a shift away from “that” (field/war/nation) to “this,” which makes his points more personal to the audience.

  ---

“The brave men, living and dead, who struggled here, have consecrated it, far above our poor power to add or detract.”

• The use of opposites: “living and dead,” “struggle,” “above our poor power,” “add or detract”

• Another use of the word “consecrate.”

• Another use of the word “here.”

• Alliteration: “poor power.”

  ---

“The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here.”

• More opposites: “little note…long remember…never forget,” “we say…they did”

• Note how smooth the first few words roll off the tongue: “world will little.” Part of it is due to alliteration between the words “world” and “will,” but it also comes from how the end “l” of “will” leads to the start of “little.”

• Another use of the word “here.”

  ---

“It is for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced.”

• Now we pivot to future actions that we must take.

• Another use of “live” (living).

• Another use of “dedicate.”

• Another use of “here.”

• More on vision/future/progress: “unfinished work…thus far so nobly advanced”

  ---

It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us—

• Another use of “here.”

• Another use of “dedicate.”

• More on vision/future/progress: “great task remaining before us.”

• Also, did you note how these last two sentences use the word “rather” to highlight that words alone aren’t enough—work/task is required.

  ---

“that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion—”

• Another use of “dead.”

• Use of opposites: “we take…they gave,” but also in the use of “increased” vs “full measure.”

  ---

“that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain—”

• Again, a move away from that or those to “these.”

• Another use of “dead,” and also “died.”

• Vision/future/progress: “not have died in vain.”

  ---

“that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom—”

• Earlier, we zoomed in to a portion of the battlefield, now we zoom out—“this nation, under God.”

• Here we have another reference to conception and life, and a circling back to the beginning sentence as we focus on a “new birth of freedom.”

“and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.”

• Here we have a great crescendo, with rhythm and repetition and vision to end the speech.

• The final zoom back out in scale to “the earth.”

Though we’re not quite sure of its origin, the quote, “If I had more time, I would have written a shorter letter,” gets after the idea that fewer, more purposeful words can make a greater impact than simply throwing many words at an audience.

I think this is best seen in Lincoln’s Gettysburg Address. No one remembers the two-hour long speech that preceded his, but we surely remember his famous few words.

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In lieu of providing articles for you this week (because, frankly, I ran out of time to curate them), I recommend you read this piece by Sarah Coppin.

Discovering The Kingdom

Dear Boomers, This is Why Millennials Don't Feel Motivated to Work Anymore

Dear Friends, I have not posted in quite a while, due to moving house and catching up on many deadlines. Apologies for the radio silence…

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a year ago · 794 likes · 215 comments · Sarah Coppin

In her post, Sarah provides some great insights as to why Millennials may be feeling burned out and struggling in work and life, and why other generations are misunderstanding them.

Though I am a Gen X’er, and not a Boomer, I will admit to being one of those who complains about the work ethic of “younger folks,” Millennials included. To me, it seems like they have life much better off than any generation before, at least convenience-wise, yet, that’s not providing fulfillment or drive for them.

I definitely recommend reading the full article, as Sarah reasons through some astute observations, then builds on those points to describe how the effects snowball and how it all affects Millennials’ work performance.

Ultimately, she concludes, Millennials are looking for hope, and the world is not providing it.

Definitely worth a read.

Caveat: Lest anyone accuse me of suffering from the Dunning-Kruger Effect, I’ll state up front, I’m not an economist. So, everything you read here is mainly amateur conjecture based on conversations with others, articles I’ve read, a little bit of logic, and maybe some expectation management. I could be wrong.

Summary

When it comes to the U.S. economy, it’ll get worse before it gets better. But my hope is that it gets better by November 2026, here’s why:

Elections

Mid-term elections occur in November 2026. If Republicans want to maintain control of the House, Senate, and state/local seats, then positive change must occur by then.

Economy

Our nation’s debt-to-GDP ratio is over 100%; if this were to continue, we will be unable to pay for Social Security in 10 years. Though both political parties have contributed to this problem over the past 24 years, it’s unreasonable to think they can both bring it down in another 24 years—that’s simply too long, and not likely to come to fruition. Thus, decades of overspending need to be reined in over a shorter period of time than it took to build it up.

Expediency

Though shifting employees from public-sector (government) jobs to private-sector jobs will help lower government spending, that shift doesn’t happen overnight. The private sector can’t just build infrastructure or capacity quickly. Moreover, many businesses and non-government organizations depend on government contracts and grants; cuts in these will also impact unemployment and delay growth.

Thus, this is why the current administration is moving fast to tear things down, because it will take time to build them back up, and they only have until next November.

The question is, can they do it in such a way that doesn’t break the entire economy.

A More Detailed Analysis

Elections

Our current two-party system is marked by pendulating government control, swinging from one party to another. Republicans, currently in control of the House, the Senate and the Presidency (the trifecta), have until the November 2026 mid-term elections before they’ll be judged on what they’ve accomplished this term. If Americans aren’t happy, then they’ll express it at the polls and potentially give the lead in congress to Democrats, making future policy agreement between Congress and the President very difficult.

Republican Control

There are 435 US Representatives, each of whom hold two-year terms, meaning all 435 seats will be up for election in November 2026. Currently, Republicans hold 218 seats, Democrats hold 214 seats, and three are vacant. In order pass a bill in the House, 218 votes are required. Thus, if all the Republicans vote together, they can pass a bill in the House.

There are 100 US Senators, each of whom hold staggard six-year terms, resulting in roughly one third of them being elected every two years. In the US Senate, 33 seats will be up for election next November. Of the current 100 Senators, 53 are Republican, 45 are Democrat, and two are Independent. In order to pass a bill in the Senate, 51 votes are needed. Thus, if all the Republicans vote together, they can pass a bill in the Senate.

In the Electoral College, Trump received 312 votes to Harris’ 226. In the popular vote, Trump won 49.8% of the votes while Harris received 48.3%.

This is to say, the Republicans currently enjoy the pendulum on their side, especially in the federal government, but also among the populace, based on the most recent election. However, if voters are not happy next November, then they will voice it at the election box.

And, in addition to federal elections, there will be numerous state and local elections as well. The state and local election outcomes in November 2024 reflected federal election outcomes and will likely do similar in November 2026.

American Politics

A fortunate aspect of American politics is that it can be difficult to make lasting change due to the time and effort required to do so. An unfortunate aspect of American politics is that it can be difficult to make lasting change due to the time and effort required to do so.

This is what the designers of our country’s government intended—a political system that encourages conflict and cooperation to avoid tyranny and mob rule. And this is why we have a separation of our government vertically—federal, state, and local levels—and horizontally—across legislative, executive, and judicial branches. (I won’t discuss the shifting weight of power among these, to include the power of executive orders, but the weight does and has shifted over time.)

Due to the shifting of government control by different political parties, and the limits on powers at each level, it takes time to make lasting change—compromise and agreement are required. This can be said about everything else the government has power over, to include economic policy and change.

All of this is to say, if the changes being undertaking by the current administration don’t make positive impacts to voters by next November, then Republicans will lose the majority, along with any potential plans they have. But, this also means two other things:

1. It CAN get worse before it gets better, as long as it gets better by November.

2. It MUST get worse and get better very fast in order for positive changes to occur by November.

Now, let’s talk about why things likely need to get worse before they get better.

Economy

We have a problem—our country has more debt than it does income.

And, just like your personal finances, this is untenable in the long run. You can’t just keep getting new credit cards to pay bills without the entire system coming crashing down and the repo man coming to get your car and you being unable to pay for basic necessities.

So let’s break down each of these components to see how we got here and what the impact is.

National Deficit

The primary problem is that our nation is spending more than we’re bringing in. The chart below shows the total receipts (money coming in) and outlays (money going out) of the US federal budget. Each year that there is more money going out than there is coming in, we have a deficit. When there’s more money coming in than there is going out, it’s a surplus.

Another way to visually understand this data is using the chart below, which show the difference between the receipts and outlays for each year (the yearly spread between the two lines in the above graph).

As you can see, the last time we had a surplus was in 2001. Ever since then we’ve had a deficit.

National Debt and Interest Payments

All of that deficit (overspending) adds up each year and contributes to our nation’s overall debt, which currently stands at over $36 Trillion dollars.

And as the debt added up, the interest payments on that debt began to increase:

The debt ceiling, a self-imposed limit on the amount of US debt we have, is supposed to prevent our country from going too far in debt. Unfortunately, government leaders just kept raising that ceiling or ignoring (suspending) it. As both political parties enjoyed being in power at certain times during the past 24 years, they’re both to blame for this.

As the Visual Capitalist article this image is from describes, there are three potential consequences of the US not being able to pay its debt: higher interest rates, erosion of our international credibility, and financial sector turmoil. Let’s explore each.

1) Higher interest rates

The first potential consequence is that interest rates rise because there’s more risk that the US might not be able to pay back its debt. To understand this, think about how banks use a debt-to-income (DTI) ratio to determine how credit worthy an individual is for a loan. If an individual’s DTI is too high, then banks won’t lend money to them, or they’ll do so at a higher interest rate to account for the increased risk of loaning money to someone who might not be able to pay back the loan. You can see how this adds to the individual’s problems—they already have a lot of debt as a percentage of their income, then they get more debt at a higher interest rate, which further adds to the percentage of their income that must go to pay their debt.

In this context, our national “income” is referred to as our Gross Domestic Product (GPD), which is a factor of consumer spending, government spending, investments that businesses make to grow/improve, and net exports (exports minus imports).

The measurement we use isn’t DTI, but debt-to-GDP ratio. Our debt-to-GDP ratio really started to become a problem back in 2012, where our debt started to exceed our nation’s GDP. Said another way, all of our income is used to pay off interest.

And, as you can see in the chart below, the interest rate on our debt and the resulting interest expense have grown sharply the past five years.

2) Erosion of our international credibility

Due to the strength of the US economy, most countries use the US dollar as the primary currency for international transactions (otherwise known as a country’s reserve currency). However, instead of holding actual US cash for these transactions, foreign banks hold what are called “treasury securities,” or “Treasuries,” for short.

To get US Treasuries, foreign entities must buy them from the US, and in return they are also promised a certain rate of interest on this “loan” to the US. Treasuries vary in type and length, so the amount of interest also varies based on the type of treasury that is purchased.

US Treasuries are backed by the full faith and credit of the US, which means our government promises to repay them, and because we’ve done a really good job of repaying them (thanks to our strong economy), they are considered low risk and thus commonly used.

US Treasuries being the primary reserve currency for other nations is great for us, because it means other countries invest in America. However, if concerns rise that we cannot or will not repay them, then countries will diversify their reserve currency by buying from other countries instead of the US.

In the 19^th century and first half of the 20^th century, the United Kingdom’s pound sterling was used as the primary reserve currency, but by the middle of the 20^th century the US dollar rose to dominancy. In 1970, the US dollar represented nearly 85% of global currency reserves, now it represents less than 60%.

But this begs the question, what bills must we actually pay?

Internationally, as a sovereign nation with a dominant military, we could simply not pay the interest (or principle for that matter) on these Treasuries to these other countries and declare “Come and take it,” as occurred in the Battle of Thermopylae, the American Revolutionary War, and the Texas Revolution. Alas, this would most likely result in another war.

Domestically, with regard to our own nation’s “must pay” bills, the US Congress has established mandatory spending on certain programs such as Social Security, Medicare, and unemployment compensation. Of all our nation’s government spending, Social Security is the largest.

And here’s the problem, according to the 2024 annual Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) trustees report by the Social Security Administration (SSA), the projected depletion date for the combined OASDI trust funds is 2035, a year earlier than in last year’s report. Yes, folks, absent any changes, our nation’s Social Security fund will be gone in 10 years:

Incremental budget changes might help it last a little longer, but not much. So, large-scale changes are needed to how we spend money as a nation. Much like your personal income at home, we can fix this by increasing our income (GDP), decreasing our expenses, or both.

3) Financial Sector Turmoil

The last point the Visual Capitalist article makes is that as confidence in our system falls, fewer people and countries will invest in the US, and stock prices will fall. People do not like uncertainty, and that uncertainly plays out in the market as volatility (frequency and magnitude of price changes in the stock market).

From trade tariffs, to government cuts, to Russia and Ukraine, there is much uncertainty in the world, and in the stock market. And, in case you weren’t paying attention, the S&P lost 8% over this past month.

However, I’m not sure that these factors tell the whole story. Numerous analysts believe that the stock market was already overvalued and in need of a correction anyway. Here’s Morningstar on the up-until-recently overvalued stock market:

So, I think you’re seeing a combination of both factors coming into play in the sell-off—an overvalued market and market uncertainty.

Questions on my mind

Where will private sector jobs come from?

I understand the desire to cut the size of the federal workforce, but this will lead to higher unemployment.

The cuts to government spending will impact businesses and other governmental and non-governmental agencies that have depended on government contracts and grants. These cuts in government spending will indirectly lead to downsizing of businesses and agencies, which will lead to further unemployment. Here’s the current unemployment rate, starting to tick upward:

But, with high interest rates, where will businesses get the money to grow?

For employees to move from public-sector (government) employment to private-sector employment, the private-sector must be hiring. And, for businesses to hire more people, they must be growing.

How long will it take for business to grow?

Current uncertainty about the economy will likely lead to businesses being cautious about growing and taking out loans, even when interest rates lower.

Will the cuts to all spending in the government be enough to get things in line?

No doubt that the millions of dollars in spending cuts that DOGE claims to be making are significant, but keep in mind a cut of $1 million is only 0.0001% of $1 trillion…and our current debt is $36 Trillion. It’s going to take a lot of cuts to add up to something significant.

Will the government cuts be surgical enough to prevent further calamity?

If you cut the system too much, or in the wrong places, the system could grind to a halt. Unfortunately, our current businesses and daily lives are woven into government programs and spending far more than we might realize; if these no longer work as they should, can things keep operating?

As the WSJ notes, much of our current GDP is based on public-sector (government) spending and investment:

In a research note sent to clients Monday, economists at Morgan Stanley argued that short-term pain for stock markets could be offset by a longer-term gain by the end of this year and into next year, as the shift from public to private spending stokes a broad-based rally that is less reliant on a few technology megacorporations.

It is true that U.S. profit margins recently rising to near-historic highs has a lot to do with the government. An analysis of official figures suggests that almost 60% of the corporate earnings generated between 2022 and the third quarter of 2024 can be attributed to public-sector spending and investment.

Closing Thoughts

In the late 1700s, Alexander Hamilton, James Madison, and John Jay wrote a series of essays intended to influence voters to ratify the constitution and make it stronger. Those essays are now referred to as The Federalist Papers, and every American should read them.

One of the issues they wrote about was how to deal with factions of people acting in their own self-interest against the rights of others or the good of people at large. In Federalist No. 10, Madison argued that we can eliminate factions by 1) eliminating people’s liberty, or 2) make everyone have the same opinions. As you might guess, he states both are impossible, so instead, he discusses how to build a system that best safeguards against the effects of factions. He then makes an argument for a republic in which “fit characters” represent the public good.

For too long, politicians on both sides have acted in a way that served their own interests (mainly, re-election) over the public good. As long as they could print money and kick the can of debt payment to the next administration, short-sightedness ruled the day.

We are no longer able to do that, so things must get worse before they get better. How bad it will get and how long before it gets better is the question at hand.

I believe that America is resilient. We have smart, hard-working people; a culture that promotes ingenuity, opportunity and individual freedom; and we enjoy vast natural resources and near-total geographic isolation.

In the words of President Franklin Delano Roosevelt (FDR) at his 1933 inaugural address,

This great Nation will endure as it has endured, will revive and will prosper. So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.

It should be noted, however, that FDR was a Democrat who became President during the middle of the Great Depression. He declared, “I pledge myself to a new deal for the American people,” which included tariff reduction and government-funded initiatives. If the Republican efforts don’t play out by election time, we may end up seeing similar initiatives come back.

👋 Hello Reader, I hope you had a great week.

It’s been a busy week for me, so I didn’t have time to summarize the news. It’s been a slow news week anyway, so there’s not much to report (kidding!).

Instead, I present a couple of fun things to lighten the mood.

Save the Cat!

My brain likes to find commonalities and meaning in things. I think it’s constantly trying to refine a unifying theory of the everything. I’m curious about why people do things and why things happen. In line with this, I have checklists and like things to fit into boxes.

But I also know that things in life, especially people, don’t always fit nicely into boxes. Art also falls into this category. Are there rules for art that you could simply follow to make something interesting or appreciated? I have no idea. I’m not much of an artist. Heck, I failed handwriting class multiple years in a row in elementary (primary) school—this is the reason I now write mainly in caps, albeit still illegibly.

But, when I read Blake Snyder’s book, Save the Cat: The Last Book on Screenwriting You’ll Ever Need, my brain fell into a happy place. Snyder’s book basically provides a formula for screenwriting, even down to what page of the screenplay certain things should be happening in your movie. He even provides the 10 genres that movies fit into. I printed it out and we keep it on our coffee table, along with the “Beat Sheet”—Snyder’s formula for movies.

Here are the 10 genres that Snyder identifies:

Save the Cat is a book written for people who want to write better screenplays for movies, but it’s also a fun book for people who like movies and want to understand why one movie may be better than another. If you don’t care about that kind of stuff and just want to mentally check out when watching a movie, then skip it.

Dean Martin & Lorne Green - Don't fence me in

This is something you’ll never see on live TV these days—two guys on horses. The funniest thing about this video is how the actors have to adjust their acting when the horses decide to do their own thing. At one point, Dean Martin has his back to the TV camera, because that’s the direction his horse wants to face. Too funny.

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Have a great week!

The Curator

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Two resources to help you be a more discerning reader: 

AllSides - https://www.allsides.com/unbiased-balanced-news  

Media Bias Chart - https://www.adfontesmedia.com/

Caveat:  Even these resources/charts are biased.  Who says that the system they use to describe news sources is accurate?  Still, hopefully you find them useful as a basic guide or for comparison.

Off-and-on over the past few years, my wife and I have been watching the series, “The Chosen,” about Jesus and His disciples. The series is an engrossing depiction of Jesus’ time on earth. Though the first season is a bit slow, the pace picks up and is more engrossing in following seasons. I think the series does an amazing job of showing Jesus’ love for people, and His disdain for religious zealots. Yet, there are also episodes where the viewer is left wondering why Jesus acted in the way He did (or was portrayed to act a certain way), and we’re left only with a sense of “God’s ways are not man’s ways.” So it is to be a human at times, I’m afraid.

Over that same period, I set out to read each of the gospels—Matthew, Mark, Luke, and John—and compare how each of them recorded the events of that time. It’s been a wonderful exercise—both insightful, and at times confounding. Believe it or not, four different people don’t always record the same event occurring the same way; yet, for the most part, they are very similar accounts. For this project, I broke down each line of each gospel and compared them side-by-side.

The attached document is the result of that work. You could call it a comparison of the gospels, but the word harmony is more apt, and more commonly used.

Harmony Of Gospels

2.49MB ∙ PDF file

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The arrival, or advent, of this document aligns, quite by accident, with the remembrance of the advent of Jesus’ birth. If you’re interested in reading some of the comparisons during this Christmas season, you could start with section five, though really, the first four sections aren’t long.

Organization of the document

Vertically, the document is sorted chronologically, then separated and numbered into 250 sections based on events or themes. Then, within those sections it is broken into paragraphs by key ideas or different speakers. And within those paragraphs it is broken up by phrases. I did this in English, so I’m aligning English phrases, which are translations from the original Aramaic or Greek. True scholars have created documents aligning the actual Greek phrases—you can find some of those in the Resources section below.

Horizontally, the phrases are then aligned across the gospels where they seem to match. If you were to draw a horizontal line anywhere across the text in the four columns, you should find matching text, at least in theme, if not exact wording. Here’s an example of three columns from section 96 in the document, where Jesus feeds five thousand:

A few items to note

• I am by no means a Biblical scholar, this is just my line-by-line comparison of like-phrases in the gospels. I’m sure I made some mistakes.

• I always tried to keep lines in order as presented in the Bible; if I did move them around to make them align with another author’s account, then it is noted and the text is colored orange.

• Where there were major differences between two authors’ accounts, I colored the text red.

• Matthew, Mark and Luke are considered synoptic gospels in that they are seen together and most similar to one another. This becomes much more evident in this document; especially when you see John’s account of events.

• Again, I am no Biblical scholar, so I’m sure I’ve messed up in areas, and the alignment of key phrases is simply alignment, as I see it, of one particular English translation of Aramaic or Greek text.

• The Bible translation I used was the New American Standard on BibleGateway.com.

Resources

I am not the first person to ever do this; you can find other documents and books like this online and in print—each differs a bit, either in the translation they use or how they divide up sections. However, most of them compare paragraphs, instead of a line-by-line comparison as I have done.

Here are just a few of them:

• The Synoptic Gospel Parallels

• NET Bible Synopsis of the Four Gospels by Gregory White

• Matthew Mark Luke & John: Side by Side Parallel Gospels in Harmony – by David Reed (printed book)

• Parallel Gospels in Harmony by David Reed (web version)

• Parallel Gospels by Books for Living, Inc

• Gospels Side By Side: A Harmony of the Gospels by Chronology and Topics by Rose Publishing

• A Four-column Parallel and Chronological Harmony of the Gospels of Matthew, Mark, Luke and John by Robert Sutherland

• Harmony of the Four Gospels - I used this outline for my project, but will likely go back and compare it to the others above to see how much they all differ, and if adjust mine if needed.

Final thoughts

As this two-year, near-daily project ends, I’m going to miss the enormity, and detail, of it all. It was a project without any real timeline, other than to try and work on it a little each day. There was no pressure to meet a deadline, which made the process enjoyable—it was more like strolling along a trail than climbing a mountain. I could stop, admire certain passages, be confounded by others, do research on geography and history, and enjoy the routine of it all. At the end of it, I'm left with even greater awe of Jesus’ ministry, message, and majesty, and the hope he brings to this world.

Have a great week, and Merry Christmas!

The Curator

Share

Two resources to help you be a more discerning reader: 

AllSides - https://www.allsides.com/unbiased-balanced-news  

Media Bias Chart - https://www.adfontesmedia.com/

Caveat:  Even these resources/charts are biased.  Who says that the system they use to describe news sources is accurate?  Still, hopefully you find them useful as a basic guide or for comparison.

👋 Hello Reader, I’m working on a separate, normal “Top 10 of the week” edition, but had enough articles on Syria that I’m putting out this separate edition.

As of this morning, Bashar al-Assad has resigned as the President of Syria, and left the country.

Below are some resources to help you understand what is going on there, and how it might turn out. I included a few similar maps in this edition, but did so because I thought each added a different detail worth seeing.

Of note, Critical Threats and the Institute for the Study of War are organizations that work in tandem to provide salient, timely updates on conflicts around the world. You can look at their individual websites for free reports and maps, as well as independent research. Here is their report on Syria, in the form of an Iran update, as of yesterday. More up to date articles are below.

I searched for videos on the history of Syria, and there are quite a few of them, but I didn’t have a good feeling for who produced them, nor were they all up to date, so I’ll let you do your own searching/watching of videos, if that’s the medium you prefer.

Lastly, I thought the quote from the Council on Foreign Relations article most remarkable:

Clearly, the armed opposition to Assad has taken advantage of the fact that Israel has done significant damage to Iran’s so-called axis of resistance, especially Hezbollah. A greatly weakened Hezbollah and a Russia distracted by its fight in Ukraine make it harder to defend the Assad regime. That does not mean that Hezbollah or the Russians will not help. Both are deeply invested in Syria, but they do not have the forces they had in 2015 and 2016 that were used to crush the insurgency.

Now, on to the articles:

Assad Flees to Russia From Syria After Rebels Take Damascus: Live Updates (WSJ)

Syrian rebels said they had freed the capital, Damascus, from President Bashar al-Assad’s dictatorship after a week of stunning military advances. Assad stepped down and fled the country after talks with opposition forces.

• Assad: He and his family are in Moscow, where Russia has granted them political asylum, according to state news agency TASS.

• The rebels: Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, who is the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, one of the largest rebel groups, arrived in Damascus Sunday and celebrated the rebel victory.

• Reactions: Residents in Damascus and Homs celebrated in the streets. Some entered the presidential palace.

• What’s next: Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali said he was ready to cooperate with any leadership chosen by the people. President Biden, who leaves office next month, vowed to help the Syrian people as they decide how to govern themselves.

  ---

What Syria’s Revived Civil War Means for the Region (CFR)

The surprise rebel offensive that has seized Aleppo and threatens other regime-held territories could mark a further weakening of Iran's regional sway but also spur a new cycle of violence and instability. How did opposition fighters gain control of Syria’s second-largest city eight years after they were routed? How significant is this? During the height of the conflict in Syria nearly a decade ago, Aleppo was divided between government-controlled and rebel areas, but with the help of Russian airpower and the Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah, the regime of President Bashar al-Assad was able to regain control over the entire city by the end of 2016. Since about that time, conflict in Syria was static with the rebels largely confined to the Idlib governate, which is adjacent to the Aleppo governate. Clearly, the armed opposition to Assad has taken advantage of the fact that Israel has done significant damage to Iran’s so-called axis of resistance, especially Hezbollah. A greatly weakened Hezbollah and a Russia distracted by its fight in Ukraine make it harder to defend the Assad regime. That does not mean that Hezbollah or the Russians will not help. Both are deeply invested in Syria, but they do not have the forces they had in 2015 and 2016 that were used to crush the insurgency.

Who are the rebels in Syria? (BBC)

The leader of the Islamist militant group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, is very much putting himself forward as the figurehead of a post-Assad future in Syria. Without his group's sudden, devastating advance on Aleppo and then into Hama and Homs from their powerbase in the north-western province of Idlb, there is no doubt that the tumultuous events of the past week and a half would not have happened. But other rebel groups rose up too - and it was most likely that sense of the entirety of Syria turning on the regime that so swiftly led to its collapse. Among these groups - some now in Damascus - are rebel factions that once operated under the banner of the Free Syrian Army from southern towns and cities that had been dormant for years, but where the spark of rebellion had never entirely been sniffed out. Over to the east, Kurdish-led forces have benefited from the collapse of the Syrian army to take full control of the main city, Deir El-Zour. In the vast Syrian desert, remnants of the so-called Islamic State could also look to take advantage of the situation. And in the far north along the Turkish border, the Syrian National Army - backed by Ankara - could also prove to be a significant player in what happens next. How Syria's immediate political future develops will not only depend on the organisation's intentions and capabilities, as well as the competing claims and pressures from other groups, but also on the part that the major outside powers that have been most closely involved in the country's recent history will play. They include most notably Iran and Russia - who supported President Assad - and Turkey - which has backed rebel groups -, as well as the US which still maintains a military presence in the Kurdish-held east of the country.

US Launches Self-Defense Airstrikes, A-10s Fly over Syria amid Escalating Civil War (Air and Space Forces)

The U.S. carried out airstrikes on Dec. 3 to defend U.S. forces in eastern Syria, the Pentagon said. The operation destroyed three truck-mounted rocket launchers, mortars, an armored personnel carrier, and a T-64 tank. The strikes were intended to defend American forces at their outpost and not to intervene in the civil war in Syria, where a rebel group has seized Aleppo and is attacking Syrian forces loyal to President Bashar Al Assad. Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Patrick S. Ryder said that the “self-defense strike” took place after rockets and mortars were fired toward American troops. The strikes were the second time in recent days that the U.S. has used force to defend its troops in eastern Syria. On Nov. 29, A-10 Thunderbolt II attack aircraft, which have been repeatedly deployed to bolster airpower in the region since spring 2023, struck militants that were getting ready to launch rockets at the American position, Ryder said.

Iran Begins to Evacuate Military Officials and Personnel From Syria (NYT)

Iran began to evacuate its military commanders and personnel from Syria on Friday, according to regional officials and three Iranian officials, in a sign of Iran’s inability to help keep President Bashar al-Assad in power as he faces a resurgent rebel offensive. Among those evacuated to neighboring Iraq and Lebanon were top commanders of Iran’s powerful Quds Forces, the external branch of the Revolutionary Guards Corps, the officials said. The move signaled a remarkable turn for Mr. al-Assad, whose government Iran has backed throughout Syria’s 13-year civil war, and for Iran, which has used Syria as a key route to supply weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

To end this edition, here’s a quote from Adam Roberts of The Economist in his email this morning:

The sudden ending of Syria’s vile regime carries similar resonance for me as other turning points in modern international politics. Some—the fall of the Berlin Wall, or the toppling (and execution) of the Ceausescus in Romania, both in 1989—led directly to improvement in the lives of millions. The end of repression is undoubtedly to be cheered. I still recall how ordinary Syrians whispered anxiously to me and my wife as we travelled, over two decades ago, in Aleppo, Homs, Hama, Daraa and Palmyra. People were so fearful that Mr Assad’s spies and informers were everywhere that they would not say a word about Syrian politics. Yet they were cut off and desperate to talk about the outside world.

But look back at other, similar moments of political high drama, and the sudden removal of repression often triggers violent disorder. The more repressive a place has been, the less able it is to cope with whatever comes next. There may be too few social or political structures to help politics to function. After Qaddafi fell, Libya suffered years of brutal civil war. Repression also held Yugoslavia together until it didn’t, and bloody conflict followed. Iraq, after Saddam Hussein’s long and nasty rule, fell into a bloody mire (despite the presence of American forces). The collapse of the Soviet-backed regime in Afghanistan at the start of the 1990s was the spark for decades of war.

Only time will tell how this turns out.

The Curator

Share

Two resources to help you be a more discerning reader: 

AllSides - https://www.allsides.com/unbiased-balanced-news  

Media Bias Chart - https://www.adfontesmedia.com/

Caveat:  Even these resources/charts are biased.  Who says that the system they use to describe news sources is accurate?  Still, hopefully you find them useful as a basic guide or for comparison.

👋 Hello Reader,

I know it’s been a few weeks since I posted—it’s been a busy time for me, and frankly, there wasn’t much in the news to share. Well, you know, except for the U.S. election.

In that vein, here are some the more interesting articles I came across.

How Different Groups Voted in the 2024 Election (WSJ)

Here are the results of a survey of over 120,000 registered voters, compiled by the Associated Press, which offer a look at voting patterns and trends among various groups in the electorate and what issues were the most important to voters heading into Election Day.

NOTE: The article contains many, many other charts.

How battleground states shifted (AP)

From 2016 to 2020, most states moved toward the Democratic presidential candidate. That changed in 2024, when every state swung toward Republican Donald Trump.

US Presidential Election 2024 (FT)

How voters changed since the 2020 election.

Young Black and Latino men say they chose Trump because of the economy and jobs. Here’s how and why (AP)

Trump gained a larger share of Black and Latino voters than he did in 2020, when he lost to Democrat Joe Biden, and most notably among men under age 45, according to AP VoteCast, a nationwide survey of more than 120,000 voters. Even as Democrat Kamala Harris won majorities of Black and Latino voters, it wasn’t enough to give the vice president the White House, because of the gains Trump made. Voters overall cited the economy and jobs as the most important issue the country faced. That was true for Black and Hispanic voters as well. About 3 in 10 Black men under age 45 went for Trump, roughly double the share he got in 2020. Young Latinos, particularly young Latino men, also were more open to Trump than in 2020. Roughly half of young Latino men voted for Harris, compared with about 6 in 10 who went for Biden.

Democrats face a reckoning and a long rebuilding. There is no quick fix. (WP)

Defeat has launched a reckoning for Democrats. Ahead of Tuesday, many Democrats could not fathom that Trump could prevail, let alone win the popular vote, as he appears to be headed for while many ballots have yet to be counted. The search for answers has begun. Start with some fundamentals. This was a tough environment for the incumbent party. President Joe Biden’s approval rating on Election Day was 40 percent positive and 59 percent negative, according to network exit polls. Even in an era when politicians have uniformly low approval ratings, that 59 percent negative judgment was an anchor that weighted down Vice President Kamala Harris. On Election Day, 68 percent of voters said the economy was either “not so good” or “poor,” according to exit polls. Democrats wanted voters to focus on low unemployment, sustained if modest growth and a stock market that continued to expand everyone’s retirement accounts. Voters had another view: 46 percent said their family’s finances were worse today than four years ago while 24 percent said they were better; 75 percent said inflation had caused a moderate or severe hardship on them or their families. Overall, voters were in a sour mood. In the exit polls, 73 percent said they were either dissatisfied or angry. This was an environment in which voters were calling for change — as they have in every election since 2006, except for 2012, when President Barack Obama was reelected. Of the 28 percent of the electorate who said finding the candidate who could bring needed change was their priority, Trump won them by nearly 3 to 1. Given all that, it’s not so surprising that the party that held the White House and the Senate was driven out of power. Amid all the internecine finger-pointing about what Harris and her campaign could or should have done differently, and those questions are legitimate, it’s important to remember how much fundamentals affect the outcome of elections.

NOTE: And from the centrist, Liberal Patriot:

The Shattering of the Democratic Coalition (Liberal Patriot)

The Republican Party, according to Democrats, has given rein to some of the darker impulses in the national psyche, has shown flagrant disregard for democratic norms and offers little to the American people in terms of effective policy. There is considerable truth to this indictment and Democrats have not been shy about making their case in uninhibited language, including the obligatory comparison of their opponents to “fascists” and “Nazis. :” Yet Democrats cannot decisively beat their opponents as this election has shown once again. The party is uncompetitive among white working-class voters and among voters in exurban, small town, and rural America. This puts them at a massive structural disadvantage given an American electoral system that gives disproportionate weight to these voters, especially in Senate and presidential elections. To add to the problem, Democrats are now hemorrhaging nonwhite working-class voters across the country. The facts must be faced. The Democratic coalition today is not fit for purpose. It cannot beat Republicans consistently in enough areas of the country to achieve dominance and implement its agenda at scale. The Democratic Party may be the party of blue America, especially deep blue metro America, but its bid to be the party of the ordinary American, the common man and woman, is falling short. There is a simple—and painful—reason for this. The Democrats really are no longer the party of the common man and woman. The priorities and values that dominate the party today are instead those of educated, liberal America which only partially overlap—and sometimes not at all—with those of ordinary Americans. There is much more to be said about shifting voting patterns in this election (and it will be said!) But for now, these data do indicate that a lot of the trends the polls were picking up on the compression of Democratic margins among key groups was real. And that should be food for thought for Democrats as they sift through the wreckage of their shattered coalition. As they do so, here’s an idea to start with: have every Democrat ostentatiously say they subscribe to the following principles. These principles would signal to normie voters, particularly working-class voters of all races, that Democrats’ values and priorities are not so different from theirs. That’s a prerequisite for getting these voters to listen to Democrats’ pitch and take it seriously.

• Equality of opportunity is a fundamental American principle; equality of outcome is not.

• America is not perfect but it is good to be patriotic and proud of the country.

• Discrimination and racism are bad but they are not the cause of all disparities in American society.

• Racial achievement gaps are bad and we should seek to close them. However, they are not due just to racism and standards of high achievement should be maintained for people of all races.

• No one is completely without bias but calling all white people racists who benefit from white privilege and American society a white supremacist society is not right or fair.

• America benefits from the presence of immigrants and no immigrant, even if illegal, should be mistreated. But border security is hugely important, as is an enforceable system that fairly decides who can enter the country.

• Police misconduct and brutality against people of any race is wrong and we need to reform police conduct and recruitment. However, more and better policing is needed to get criminals off the streets and secure public safety. That cannot be provided by “defunding the police”.

• There are underlying differences between men and women that should not all be attributed to sexism. However, discrimination on the basis of gender is wrong and should always be opposed.

• People who want to live as a gender different from their biological sex should have that right. However, biological sex is real and spaces limited to biological women in areas like sports and prisons should be preserved. Medical treatments like drugs and surgery are serious interventions that should not be available on demand, especially for children.

• Language policing has gone too far; by and large, people should be able to express their views without fear of sanction by employer, school, institution or government. Free speech is a fundamental American value that should be safeguarded everywhere.

• Climate change is a serious problem but it won’t be solved overnight. As we move toward a clean energy economy with an “all of the above” strategy, energy must continue to be cheap, reliable and abundant. That means fossil fuels, especially natural gas, will continue to be an important part of the mix.

• We must make America more equal, but we also must make it richer. There is no contradiction between the two. A richer country will make it easier to promote equality.

• Degrowth is the worst idea on the left since Communism. Ordinary voters want abundance: more stuff, more opportunity, cheaper prices, nicer, more comfortable lives. The only way to provide this is with more growth, not less.

• We need to make it much easier to build things, from housing to transmission lines to nuclear reactors. That cannot happen without serious regulatory and permitting reform.

• America needs a robust industrial policy that goes far beyond climate policy. We are in direct competition with nations like China, a competition we cannot win without building on cutting edge scientific research in all fields.

• National economic development should prioritize the “left-behind” areas of the country. The New Deal under Franklin Roosevelt did this and we can do it today. “Trickle-down” economics from rich metropolitan areas is not working.

A Democratic Party united around these principles would be a far more appealing party to those millions of voters who are leaving the Democratic Party behind. It’s time to start calling them back.

Have a great weekend!

The Curator

Share

Two resources to help you be a more discerning reader: 

AllSides - https://www.allsides.com/unbiased-balanced-news  

Media Bias Chart - https://www.adfontesmedia.com/

Caveat:  Even these resources/charts are biased.  Who says that the system they use to describe news sources is accurate?  Still, hopefully you find them useful as a basic guide or for comparison.

The more I learn, the more concerned I become for our nation’s boys and young men. This is not to say that girls and young women aren’t struggling, they are, and the data supports it, but I’m especially concerned about boys and men. Part of my interest in this topic comes from being a father of two young men, and the another part from knowing that a society of lost men is a dangerous thing.

What I see in many boys and young men is that they are adrift in this world, unable to make sense of it, and unable to make sense of their place in it.

I think the Surgeon General of the United States, Vice Admiral Vivek Murthy, MD, said it best:

There are a lot of young men and boys who are feeling unmoored and who are feeling lost and who are feeling like the world is shifting under their feet, who are feeling like their place in society is shifting and changing, but who are also feeling potentially that people are increasingly pointing their fingers at them and telling them that they're the problem.

We have to recognize that the data is actually quite clear that young men and boys are actually falling behind on many metrics, including in education. And addressing that does not mean that we are somehow deprioritizing caring for girls and women: young girls and women have struggled for equality for a long, long time, for generations.

I have noticed that there has been resistance to acknowledging that from people who worry that we'll take attention away from the continuing effort to ensure that girls and young women also can progress and that we can close the equity gap for them. I would not choose or between my son and my daughter, and I would not accept that as a choice that any of us should make. We've got to do both.

His last point here is important—it’s not about supporting girls or boys—both can be supported and encouraged in equal measure but in different ways. It is not a zero-sum game. Right now, though, we need to adjust our playbook for how we support boys and young men.

Overprotected in the real world and underprotected in the virtual world

In his book, The Anxious Generation: How the Great Rewiring of Childhood Is Causing an Epidemic of Mental Illness, NYU professor Jonathan Haidt outlines the grim picture of our nation’s youth.  He starts out by providing a brief history of smartphone advances starting around 2010, and then shows mental health statistics of young people since that time, all of which reflect significant increases in anxiety, loneliness, depression, feelings of meaninglessness, self-harm, and suicide; as well as decreases in satisfaction with oneself, the number of close friends, the rate at which kids meet up with friends daily, academic scores, and other troubling statistics. And this wasn’t just in the US—it occurred in other Anglosphere and European nations as well.

Haidt goes on to talk about the decline of play-based childhood and the rise of phone-based childhood.  His central claim is that we’ve overprotected children in the real world and underprotected them in the virtual world.  His words:

As the transition from play-based to phone-based childhood proceeded, many children and adolescence were perfectly happy to stay indoors and play online, but in the process they lost exposure to the kind of challenging physical and social experiences that all young mammals need to develop basic competencies, overcome innate child fears, and prepare to rely less on their parents.

We mistakenly thought the primary dangers in the world were outside our doors.  We then built-up defenses, protected our children in castle towers, and gave them virtual access to the world.  Except, the real danger lurked inside our homes and on devices.

We are digitally connected and assume this brings the same benefits as in-person connection.  But we’ve been deceived.  Even the word “social” has been hijacked to refer to online connections and interactions in a way that makes them seem innocuous.  Yet the decline of in-person, interpersonal, physical connections has negatively impacted our society, especially children.

The Surgeon General, as outlined in his recent report on Epidemic of Loneliness and Isolation, said:

When I first took office as Surgeon General in 2014, I didn’t view loneliness as a public health concern. But that was before I embarked on a cross-country listening tour, where I heard stories from my fellow Americans that surprised me. 

People began to tell me they felt isolated, invisible, and insignificant. Even when they couldn’t put their finger on the word “lonely,” time and time again, people of all ages and socioeconomic backgrounds, from every corner of the country, would tell me, “I have to shoulder all of life’s burdens by myself,” or “if I disappear tomorrow, no one will even notice.”

It was a lightbulb moment for me: social disconnection was far more common than I had realized.

Different sexes, different impacts

The impact on girls and boys has been different. While smartphones brought the ability to connect to the world, anytime, anywhere, for free, girls social lives moved to social media platforms, and they were faced with the negativity that comes with filters, peer comparisons, and shaming of others. As Haidt points out,

Social media is a fountain of bedevilments. It trains people to think in ways that are exactly contrary to the world’s wisdom traditions: Think about yourself first; be materialistic, judgmental, boastful, and petty; seek glory as quantified by likes and followers.

Meanwhile, boys were drawn to online forums, video streaming, multiplayer games, and pornography. When talking about one particular boy, Haidt says,

Luca’s worldview is possible because his internet connection gives him access to a convincing simulation of many real-world pleasures-social connection, games, learning, and sex-without needing to face his anxieties and the uncomfortable uncertainty of real life.

Haidt shows statistics on the decrease in risk-taking among boys, and the increase of young men “Not in Education, Employment, or Training” (NEET). The rise of safetyism and the move to online gaming have pushed boys away from the real-world. The metaverse, interactive and augmented reality, and artificial intelligence will only make this worse. 

Moreover, there is an opportunity cost of phone-based childhood—social deprivation, sleep deprivation, and attention fragmentation—that has especially impacted boys.  And it’s impacted boys in lower income strata the most.

Though positive gains have been made for girls and women in the past few decades, I also think there were factors in those advancements that led to boys retreating from society, and from girls.

Richard Reeves book, “Of Boys and Men: Why the Modern Male is Struggling, Why it Matters, and What to Do about It” points out the educational challenges, economic shifts, mental health trends, and identity issues that have plagued boys. Namely:

• Boys often perform worse than girls in educational settings, leading to lower college enrollment and completion rates

• The decline of manufacturing jobs and the rise of the knowledge economy have disproportionately disadvantaged men, who are more likely to work in industries affected by automation and globalization

• Men face higher rates of suicide and are less likely to seek help for mental health issues, compounded by societal stigmas around expressing vulnerability

• The changing landscape of gender roles has left some men struggling to find their place and purpose in society. 

As a boy or young man, if you were to only look at the popular social media channels, online forums, or blogs, you might think only two paths exist: hypermasculinity (exhibit exaggerated male behavior) or femininity (become more like women). 

I don’t think either of these paths generally appeal to women who are looking for stable men in their lives, so I can understand why girls are disenchanted with boys and young men. This then leads to further disenchantment and distancing on both sides. As this occurs, young men look for “relationships” and fulfillment online—through movies, video games, and porn. And it is borne out in the numbers--the amount of dating is declining, the amount of sex is declining, and the number of children being born is declining.

So. Many. Demands.

Meanwhile, as parents we face a world with increasing demands that lead us to feel overwhelmed, underprepared, and desiring smaller families.  It’s all we can do to keep up with the demands, external or self-imposed, placed on our family—there’s schoolwork, school events, sports, college prep, home maintenance, shopping, meal prep, and so much more.  We become exhausted and default to handing a phone or tablet to our kids to keep them entertained while we manage all of the adult stuff…or when we just want to take a break. 

Timothy Carney’s book, Family Unfriendly: How Our Culture Made Raising Kids Much Harder Than It Needs to Be, argues that the high standards set for American parenting are unrealistic and are setting everyone up for failure.  This is a point on which I wholeheartedly agree, namely because I saw it in how we parented our own children.  As a society, we want the best for our kids and mistakenly assume that “more” equals “better.”  We’re all racing one another to get to…well, we’re not really sure. But, we’re all running faster to get there.

On her summary of Haidt’s book, Katherine Johnson Martinko says,

I suspect that many parents have had a little voice in the back of their heads for years, saying, “This doesn’t seem right.” But because everyone else is propping up iPads on infant car seats, giving kids smartphones in grade 5, and letting teens post selfies and play video games for 8+ hours a day, then it must be OK. After all, parenting is hard and confusing, and humans have always looked to others to determine what is normal behaviour.

Ultimately, this is a collective action problem.  In essence, we must all work together to achieve a common goal, yet we don’t.  It’s good for me to send my children outside to play, but if no one else sends their children out to play, then my children soon come back inside.  It’s also good for me to delay the age my children are given a smartphone with apps, but if my children’s friends all have smartphones, the good I’m trying to do is negated by peer pressure and access to apps through those friends.

We must all work together as a society to make things better by shifting our idea of what we think will make our children flourish in life.

A government commission in Norway recently published a report “Gender equality's next step— The Men's Committee's report.”  The report is in Norwegian, but Reeves provides an English summary of it here, and he ends with, “…I think the work of the Commission has significance well beyond Norway. There are policymakers around the world trying to figure out how best to begin to approach the glaring, growing problems of boys and men. Now they have a blueprint.”

Other nations are taking notice to this problem and starting to take collective action, we should too.

Why I write this post

It is not good for men to be adrift in a society.  A large number of discontented men leads to trouble down the road. Find a country with discontented men, and you’ll see a country where might makes right.  Thus, I feel compelled to spread this message of concern, while also offering some proposals for how to address this situation. Both Reeves and Haidt offer recommendations in their books for all kids and young adults.

Haidt’s recommendations include:

• Improve the virtual world: assert a duty to care, raise the age of internet adulthood to 16, facilitate age verification, encourage phone-free school.

• Incentivize real-world experience: We should stop punishing parents for giving children real-world freedom, encourage more play in schools, design and zone public space with children in mind, create more vocational education, apprenticeships, and youth development programs.

Reeves’ recommendations are:

• Education and Professional Development: Improve education by adapting teaching methods to better fit boys' learning styles and increasing male teacher presence. Simultaneously, develop targeted training and reskilling programs to help men transition from declining industries to new job opportunities, addressing the literacy and skills gap.

• Mental Health and Social Support: Broaden access to mental health resources for men and boys, reducing stigma and promoting help-seeking behaviors. Expand mentoring programs to provide young men with guidance and positive role models, strengthening their personal development and sense of direction.

• Legal, Cultural, and Community Engagement: Advocate for legal reforms to ensure equity in family responsibilities and address systemic biases. Enhance community involvement, particularly by supporting fathers in active parenting and community participation.

My recommendations:

I don’t have any research-based recommendations of my own, but my experience-based recommendations to address the crisis facing boys and young men include the following:

All adults

• Let kids go out and play. In fact, push your kids to go out and play. Give them more freedom.

• If you see kids outside goofing around, making noise, exploring the world, celebrate it, don’t complain on your neighborhood social network.

Adult men

• Be a role model for boys and younger men. Be a man of honor, of integrity, a man who treats others with respect.  A man who is not afraid to stand up for others and protect them…yet also a man who shows calm, restraint, and humility…not arrogance and brute force. 

• Be a mentor. Be a coach. You don’t have to be perfect, you just need to be there.

Young men

• Do things, in person, with other people.  Even if (and I cringe to say this) that means playing video games together in the same room—at least that’s better than doing them separately online.  Things you can do with people, in person, are good.

• Don’t be afraid to delete your social media apps.  Not everything you see on there is true, and it certainly does not represent the majority of people. If you feel worse about yourself after playing games, going on social media, or watching something online, then that’s a sign that you should probably not do that thing.

• Remove the temptation. If you cannot operate for at least an hour without picking up your phone, that is a problem.  If you cannot sit in a quiet room, read a book, or be in the middle of a conversation without picking up your phone every few minutes, that is a problem. It is an addiction.  Enjoy the quiet space in your head.  Train yourself to listen to people and have a conversation with them.

• Take time to contemplate life and difficult topics.  Yes, your brain will push back and you will want to do something easier (like get a hit of dopamine from your phone apps), but things worth doing aren’t always easy in life.

• Go for a walk.  See the world outside.

• Invite others to join you. And, if someone invites you to do something in person, join them.  It takes people to do things with people.

• Don’t be afraid to date…in person. Ask someone out, even if you’re afraid they’ll say “no.” Don’t worry about the other person being the perfect match--there’s no such thing.  People are difficult, marriage is difficult. But that doesn’t make it unworthy of trying.

• Take smart risks. Try new things, even if you think you’ll strike out (like asking someone out on a date).  Embrace the fear of doing things you’re not comfortable with, then watch as you grow past your preconceived limits.

• Seek to do something meaningful in your life, other than being a YouTube star.

• Ask for help.

One final note 

Most of what I’ve provided here is in generalities and aggregates.  Every young person is affected differently by the changes they face, and there are many shining examples who rise above it all.  These exemplars are the ones we might point to as a sign that things really aren’t that bad.  And while I agree that there are young people who appear to have it all together and are doing great things, there are many more who are not OK. They need our help.

I’ll end with this essay where we started, with another quote from the US Surgeon General:

“If we do not have positive role models, if we do not have a pathway, we can lay out and guide young men and boys to where they can be of service in their community, where they can feel useful and know that they add value to their communities where they can see a path for progress, then we consign many of them to go down more dangerous paths. And that's what's happening now. We've got to pay attention to that vacuum in role models and leadership for young men. But it's important to start with acknowledging that young men and boys are actually going through a crisis of their own.”

…to me, the deeper crises that we're dealing with as a country right now that are affecting our health at an individual and societal level is this deeper spiritual crisis that's marked by loneliness and by a lack of meaning and purpose that many people are experiencing in their lives.” If we're not able to address those, if we're not able to help people find more agency in their lives, find more community in their lives, connect with a sense of purpose that's rooted in something bigger than themselves, then I think we're going to have fundamental challenges moving forward as a society.

We need to work together to help boys and young men find purpose and community in their lives.

Other Resources

Here are additional resources I read while researching this topic:

Books

The Anxious Generation: How the Great Rewiring of Childhood Is Causing an Epidemic of Mental by Jonathan Haidt

Of Boys and Men: Why the Modern Male Is Struggling, Why It Matters, and What to Do about It by Richard Reeves

The Shallows: What the Internet is Doing to Our Brains by Nicholas Carr

Irresistible: The Rise of Addictive Technology and the Business of Keeping Us Hooked by Adam Alter

Digital Minimalism: Choosing a Focused Life in a Noisy World by Cal Newport

Family Unfriendly: How Our Culture Made Raising Kids Much Harder Than It Needs to Be by Timothy Carney

The Coddling of the American Mind by Greg Lukianoff and Jonathan Haidt

Websites

The Anxious Generation

American Institute for Boys and Men

Boys left behind: Education gender gaps across the US

Blogs & Articles

After Babel Substack

Of Boys and Men Substack

FREE FOR ALL: Dr. Vivek Murthy on why American men are in crisis

'The Anxious Generation': Things Are Worse Than We Realized

They Entered College in Isolation and Leave Among Protests: The Class That Missed Out on Fun

Why did the world break in the early 2010s?

What the heck happened in 2012?

30% of Children Ages 5-7 Are on TikTok

Opinion | Fighting the phone-warping of Gen Z doesn’t require government intrusion

How America Became ‘Family Unfriendly’

Why Everything is Becoming a Game

Jonathan Haidt Blamed Tech for Teen Anxiety. Managing the Blowback Has Become a Full-Time Job.

…and every day, more articles and books cross my feeds on these very topics.

Welcome back to this series on geography!

• In the first post on this topic, we covered distances around the world.

• The next post gave you some tips on memorization.

• We then started by looking at countries in North America and Central America.

• And then we traveled to South America.

• Then we began in Europe with countries from Estonia to Greece.

• After that, we memorized the line of countries from Poland to North Macedonia.

Now, we finish up the rest of mainland Europe.

A word of warning—this one is going to be a little off-the-wall (as if the others weren’t…)—we’ll weave in cowboys, Marvel, Star Trek, Saturday Night Live, and human anatomy.

A Pretest

For a quiz on the names/locations of countries in Europe, go here. You can go to this website or this website to take a quiz on country names/locations across the world. 

Europe

Europe is comprised of 44 countries.

In the first Europe post, we tackled nine of those countries—Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece.

Then we tackled 12 more—Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria, Hungry, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, Albania, and North Macedonia.

In this post, we’ll cover 17 countries—The United Kingdom (Northern Ireland, Scotland, England, Wales), Ireland, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, France, Germany, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Italy, San Marino, Vatican City, Monaco, Andorra, Spain, Portugal, and Malta.

You can see them highlighted in the map below.

First, though, a little background on the imagery we’re going to use.

In the 1960s, a new subgenre of films were born—the Spaghetti Western. Up until this time, most westerns painted the characters in a very black-and-white type of way. Heroes were upright and law abiding, bad guys were bad to the bone.

Sergio Leone, an Italian director and producer, came along and turned the this idea on its head, blurring the moral lines of the hero. These new heroes, motivated by money or revenge, did what was necessary, no matter the legality, to defeat the bad guys. One of the first movies to do this was A Fistful of Dollars, starring Clint Eastwood. The stories and filming styles took off in popularity, ultimately having an impact on cinema that lasts today. Quentin Tarantino, for one, uses many Spaghetti Western elements in his movies. Ultimately, their name came from the Italian dish, spaghetti, since Italy is where they got their start.

Since Spaghetti Westerns were typically directed by Italians and filmed in Spain, we’re going to use this image of Clint Eastwood from The Good, the Bad and the Ugly as the core image for memorizing the countries in Western Europe...

…and then we’re going to add a few embellishments to make it even more memorable (sorry Clint).

Though, I guess to be more accurate, it would look like this:

THE HEAD

Our first embellishment is to replace Clint Eastwood’s head with that of a Borg head. This Borg head will represent Ireland and the UK.

For those unfamiliar with the Borg, they are cyborg aliens from the TV show Star Trek. Flying around the universe in their giant cube spaceship, they conquer other species and assimilate them into their collective. Resistance is futile.

Now, normally I wouldn’t mix cowboys and aliens (given how disappointing a movie by that name was), but there are so many great reasons why a Borg head is suitable for the United Kingdom, such as:

• The head wears the crown

• The Borg took over other civilizations through assimilation

• There was a Borg Queen

• It is made up of different parts

The United Kingdom is known as a country of countries; there’s a very long history behind this, which I’ll let you read here. Each country on our Borg head is represented by a different facial feature: eyes, nose, mouth. And, while Northern Ireland, Scotland, England, and Wales are part of the UK, Ireland is not; thus, Ireland appears different.

Ireland & Northern Ireland

In 1919, Ireland was partitioned due to religious differences, then in 1949, Ireland separated from the British Commonwealth, and Northern Ireland fell under the rule of the UK. That’s a very short explanation. You can read more here.

Thus, on the Borg face, Ireland is the “eye”, and Northern Ireland is the part of the face above the eye.

Scotland

Many people confuse Scotland and Ireland on the map (but you no longer will). Because of this, I’ve labeled Scotland as the other eye.

England

To remember England, think of British royalty being pretentious and sticking their noses up in the air. No offense to the Royal Family.

Wales

Wales is the mouth because a person wails (expresses sorry audibly) from their mouth, and Wales is shaped like an open mouth.

THE BODY

Crossing over the English Channel (the neck), we arrive at the literal and figurative body of Europe.

Netherlands

The word “Netherlands” means “low countries,” due to the lands being flat. Here, we can think of Clint Eastwood’s flat abs.

Belgium

Below the Netherlands (stomach), we come to Belgium, which we’ll think of as the belt—due to its location below the stomach, and because “BELgium” and “BELt” have the same first three letters.

Luxembourg

Southeast of Belgium is Luxembourg, a little jewel of a country that is only 1,000 square miles in size. Despite its size, the country boasts the largest GDP per capita of any country, and this is why we make it a shiny gold gem in the image, a symbol of luxury.

Luxembourg is the first of five jewels—small countries—that are each special for different reasons. Together, the five jewels can be wielded using only a golden boot (think Thanos’ glove and the Infinity Stones):

THE LEGS

With Germany and France, we move downward in two different directions. Each of these collections of countries represent a leg. Due to their size and location, Germany and France are the thighs—you can think of them as the powerhouse muscles, kind of like Hans and Franz from SNL (though, to be clear, those two characters were from Austria).

THE RIGHT LEG

Germany

Germany is the right thigh.

Switzerland

Underneath Germany is Switzerland, which sounds like “swivel-land,” so we’ll make that the knee of the right leg…you know, because knees swivel.

Liechtenstein

And just behind the kneecap are ligaments (MCL, LCL, ACL); think of Liechtenstein as the ligaments of the knee. Liechtenstein = Ligaments.

Italy

The boot. No explanation needed.

Monaco

Monaco has a fascinating history related to the Grimaldi family; however, most people are probably familiar with the country thanks to the Monaco Grand Prix and Monte Carlo, a “Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous”-type of place. The Hôtel de Paris Monte-Carlo and its casino has been used in numerous shows, including two James Bond movies.

For all of these money-related reasons, Monaco is a green jewel sitting at the top of the boot of Italy.

San Marino

Nestled in a little 23 square mile patch near the back of the boot of Italy is San Marino. The city gets its name from Saint Marinus, which sounds like mariner (one who navigates a ship). So, we’ll give this jewel a blue color, like the water.

Vatican City

Home of the Pope, Vatican City is only 0.17 square miles in size, which makes it the smallest country in the world. Since the color of royalty is purple, we’ll give this stone a purple color.

Malta

Malta is an island country sitting south of Italy in the Mediterranean. Unfortunately, this jewel fell off the boot, and that’s bad, so the people are mad (red), and so we make this stone red.

THE LEFT LEG

France

France is the left thigh.

Andorra

Andorra, sounds like “a door,” and because doors swivel, this is the knee, or swivel point for the left leg.

Spain

Spain, the left boot(ish)! You can go back to the Spaghetti Western background story for this one, remembering that many of those movies were filmed in Spain. Spain and Italy, the two boots, form the foundation (feet) of the Spaghetti Westerns.

Portugal

Portugal sits along the front edge of Spain, and as such, we’ll make that the metal tip of the boot—there to protect the boot.

Putting it all together, you get this:

With these three posts on Europe, we’ve covered 38 countries. That just leaves six more to get to 44—the five Scandinavian countries (Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Iceland) and Russia (which is also in Asia).

Do you have a way that you remember the countries of Europe? If so, leave it in the comments section!

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Thanks for reading Curated Compositions!

Welcome back to this series on geography!

• In the first post on this topic, we covered distances around the world.

• The next post gave you some tips on memorization.

• We then started by looking at countries in North America and Central America.

• And then we traveled to South America.

• Then we began in Europe with countries from Estonia to Greece.

Today we pick up with the next line of countries from Poland to North Macedonia.

A Pretest

For a quiz on the names/locations of countries in Europe, go here. You can go to this website or this website to take a quiz on country names/locations across the world. 

Europe

Europe is comprised of 44 countries; in the last post, we tackled nine of those countries—Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece.

In this post, we’re going to tackle 12 countries—Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria, Hungry, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, Albania, and North Macedonia. We’ll also cover Kosovo.

You can see them highlighted in the map below. We have a lot to cover, so, buckle into your sled.

Why “sled?”  Well, partly because of the winter season, but also because we’re going to use the imagery of dog sledding to help us remember these countries.

Here’s the story to help you remember these countries:

• You’re going to dog sled to the LAND of the North POLE (Poland)

• As you prepare to do so, you CHECK (Czech Republic) your SLED (Slovakia)

• You feed your AUSTRIAN (Austria) Husky dogs that are HUNGRY (Hungry)

• You start SLOW (Slovenia), then CRACK (Croatia) your whip to drive the dogs faster

• The dogs BOUND ahead--the frequency of their steps grows (Bosnia & Herzegovina)

• They SURGE (Serbia) over the MOUNTAIN (Montenegro)

• Soon, there’s nothing but white (Albania) snow and ice ahead of you as you reach the NORTH Pole on a massive sheet of ice (North Macedonia).

You’ll have to use your imagination a little more on this one that on the strongman competition, as the words don’t as perfectly align with our images, but, I think you’ll get the gist as go through it.

But, before we go through the memorization piece, let’s talk about animals and pole exploration.

From Camels to Dog Sledding

Thanks to animals, we’ve been able to accomplish much in human history.  We’ve used them for work, clothing, food, science, medicine, and of course, pets.

I was especially struck by how dependent man is on animals while spending some time in Saudi Arabia and seeing all that camels were capable of and had allowed people to do there.

Camels are amazing creatures, able to go months without water and able to go long distances in extreme temperatures. Had it not been for these animals, there’s no way Bedouins would’ve lived in, or crossed, the desert. You can learn more about camels here.

And, camels are cute, in a weird way.

To the degree that camels have been used in the desert, dogs have been used in the arctic.  Granted, you can’t ride on a dog, but you can string a bunch of them together and have them pull you on a sled, which has been done for thousands of years.

Exploring the Poles

For memorizing this set of countries, I chose to use the North Pole due to the two “bookend” countries of Poland and North Macedonia. 

Unlike the South Pole, which is on a land mass (Antarctica), the North Pole is in the middle of the Arctic Ocean.  But, because of the massive ice shelves there, it appears that the North Pole is on land, or in this case, ice.

I’ll also point out that when we talk of the North Pole, we have to clarify whether we mean the Magnetic North Pole (which moves), or Geographic (True) North Pole (where lines of longitude converge).   You can learn more about the difference of these two North Poles here.

Unfortunately, I’m not sure which one of those is where Santa’s place is located--though according to Alaskans, it’s this North Pole.

Explorers have gone to both the Magnetic and True North Poles; in fact, you can read about how these two guys recently made an 87-day ski traverse to the North Pole, and almost died doing so.

With that background, let’s jump into the mnemonics.

Mnemonics

Poland

You’re going to dog sled to the LAND of the North POLE (Poland).

• (Just to clarify, none of the North Poles are actually located in Poland.)

  ---

Czech Republic, Slovakia

As you prepare to do so, you CHECK (Czech Republic) your SLED (Slovakia).

• These two countries were one country, named Czechoslovakia, from 1918 to 1992

• Slovakia and Slovenia are commonly confused with one another; to remember that this one is Slovakia, think of your sled as a Kia automobile.

  ---

Austria, Hungry

Feed your AUSTRIAN (Austria) Husky dogs that are HUNGRY (Hungry)

• There’s really no such thing as an “Austrian Husky.” There is an “Australian Husky,” but Australia is on the opposite side of the planet. In my mind, there should be a breed called Austrian Husky…so we’ll just pretend it exists and it looks like a Husky you’d take dog sledding.

• From 1867 to 1918, these two countries were once part of a larger alliance, named Austria-Hungry, that included modern day Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and parts of Italy, Romania, Ukraine, Poland, Serbia, and Germany.

Slovenia, Croatia

You start SLOW (Slovenia), then CRACK (Croatia) your whip to drive the dogs ahead

• Croatia is easy to remember, because it is “C” shaped, and looks like a whip curled back about to crack

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro

The dogs BOUND forward—the frequency of their steps grows (Bosnia & Herzegovina)

• Though not quite the same open mouth “o” sound that’s found in “bound,” the “bo” from bound goes along with the “bo” from Bosnia

• Frequency is measured in Hertz, which goes along with Herzegovina. 

They SURGE (Serbia) over a MOUNTAIN (Montenegro)

• Ok, I know, not perfect…but hey, it’s something.

Albania, North Macedonia

Soon, there’s nothing but WHITE (Albania) snow and ice ahead of you

• Albinism is an absence of melanin which result in white skin. This has nothing to do with the actual etymology of the word Albania though.

Then you reach the NORTH Pole on a massive sheet of ice (North Macedonia).

• Interestingly, this country was called “Macedonia” until 2018, after which it was changed to “North Macedonia” due to a dispute with Greece, since the historical land of Macedonia stretches south into modern day Greece.

Having gotten all of the memorization pieces out of the way, let’s talk about some fascinating history to this area.

Some History

In Europe-Part 1, I showed the following pictures of how most of these countries were part of the former Soviet Union during the 20th century. You can see the progression of borders and political alliances below.

Two things I’ll highlight here are 1) the dissolution of Czechoslovakia into the Czech Republic and Slovakia, and 2) the breakup of Yugoslavia into Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Montenegro, Serbia, and Macedonia.

Known as the “Velvet Revolution,” the overthrow of the communist government in Czechoslovakia was a peaceful event. And likewise, the dissolution of Czechoslovakia into the Czeck Republic and Slovakia went peacefully, causing it to be named “Velvet Divorce.”

Unfortunately, the separation of Yugoslavia into separate countries did not go as smooth, and resulted in significant conflict and killing, primarily driven by ethnic tensions.

Below is one of many maps you can find online that show the different ethnicities in the region (this one from 1991).  In Bosnia & Herzegovina alone, you can see the mix of Bosniaks (Bosnian Muslims), Serbs (predominantly Eastern Orthodox Christian), and Croats (mostly Catholic).

The Bosnian War

Efforts to partition Bosnia and Herzegovina into ethnic areas failed in 1992, and after the US recognized the independence of Bosnia and Herzegovenia, Bosnian Serbs forces attacked Sarajevo in an effort to take over and expel the Bosniak population.  This Bosnian War raged for three and a half years.

During that time, NATO enforced a No-fly zone to discourage Bosnian Serb forces from attacking government and Croat forces. On June 2, 1995, United States Air Force (USAF) Captain Scott O’Grady was flying his F-16 above the skies of Bosnia when he was shot down by a surface-to-air missile.  For six days he successfully evaded capture and was rescued.

If this story sounds familiar, it’s because the the 2001 movie, “Behind Enemy Lines,” starring Owen Wilson and Gene Hackman, is loosely based on this shoot-down.  The movie involves a Naval Flight Officer (not a pilot/aviator) being shot down over Bosnia, then running through a minefield unscathed before being rescued (like I said, “loosely” based on).

In 1995, all parties eventually agreed to a single sovereign state under the Dayton Agreement, reached at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Dayton, Ohio; this ended the Bosnian War.

The Kosovo War

Meanwhile, ethnic Albanians in Kosovo were trying to fight against discrimination and political dissent by Serbian authorities as well; however, Kosovo was not included in the Dayton Agreement.

The Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA), an ethnic Albanian separatist militia, began attacking Serbian governmental buildings and police stations, resulting in retaliatory strikes by the government. The “excessive and indiscriminate use of force by Serbian security forces and the Yugoslav Army” led to NATO action, with the goal of “Serbs out, peacekeepers in, refugees back.”   

Operation Allied Force, which entailed aerial bombing against Serb forces, lasted almost three months, and ultimately led to the Kumanovo Agreement, bringing an end to the Kosovo War. 

On, May 2, 1999, during Operational Allied Force, USAF Lieutenant Colonel David Goldfein was shot down by a surface-to-air missile while flying his F-16 over Serbia.  He successfully evaded enemy forces and was rescued, and later went on to become a four-star general and the USAF Chief of Staff.  Interestingly, he was from the same unit that Scott O’Grady was when he was shot down—the 555^th Fighter Squadron, known as famed “The Triple Nickle”—out of Aviano Air Base, Italy.

Lastly, you’ll notice that Kosovo appears on some maps, but not on others. That is because it has only partial diplomatic recognition. Kosovo unilaterally declared independence from Serbia in 2008, and while Serbia does not recognize Kosovo as a sovereign state, 102 UN member states do recognize it as such.

Slobodan Milošević

Throughout all of these events, Slobodan Milošević rose to power as the Serbian President and then Yugoslav president. He was a dictator who was labeled "Butcher of the Balkans.” In 2002, he went on trial at The Hague under charges of genocide, deportation, murder, inhumane acts, and a host of other crimes. He died of a heart attack before the trial’s conclusion.

On the Brighter Side

This area is also referred to as the Balkans, or the Balkan Peninsula.

This past summer, I visited the area and fell in love with it—the beaches, mountains, and history—this place is awesome!

Here are some things that I learned, or that stood out:

1. It was amazing to see the Venetian impact along some of the coastal towns—I had no idea how far the Venetian Republic reached (note, map is turned sideways).

2. The Soviet-era submarine bunkers still viewable in the Bay of Kotor, Montenegro. Also, Kotor is an incredibly beautiful city!

3. The old-world feel of Dubrovnik, which is no doubt why they filmed part of Game of Thrones there. While in the area, I talked with local vintner who was forced to flee the area in the 1990s, then had to come back and reestablish his vineyard once conflict was over.

4. Part of the coastline along Croatia is referred to as Dalmatia, or the Dalmatian Coast. And yes, if you’re wondering, this is where Dalmatian dogs originated. Cruella De Vil is not from Croatia.

5. I was reminded of a part in the movie, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, where one of the characters confuses the Aegean sea with the Ionian Sea.

Here’s a map of the local seas:

There are so many other places I didn’t get to see. I definitely want to back—and highly recommend others visit as well.

Do you have a way that you remember the countries of Europe? If so, leave it in the comments section!

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Following the recent release of population data from the Census Bureau, a number of articles have come out on the topic.  In lieu of including them in my weekly Curated Compositions, I wanted to highlight them separately and provide some context. In this post I’ll discuss the Dallas Cowboys, the birds and the bees, why men die before women, immigration, and more.

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Size

As of right now, the human population on earth is 8,074,399,487…give or take a few.

Think about that—8 billion people.

To help visualize that number of people, consider AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, home of America’s Team, the Dallas Cowboys. AT&T Stadium can seat 80,000 people, and including parking, covers about 70 acres.

We would need to have 100,000 stadiums, at 80,000 seats each, to be able to seat the entire population of the earth.

And, at 70 acres apiece, we’d need 7,000,000 acres for all those stadiums. Thankfully, Texas is over 171,000,000 acres in size, so we’d have plenty of room, but traffic would be a nightmare (even more than it already is).

It’s taken us a while to reach that population size, given pneumonia, tuberculosis, plagues, and other such causes of death. The biggest increases in population size have come in just the last two hundred years, as we’ve more than doubled our life expectancy.

Estimates are that over 109 billion humans lived before us; which, when we add the 8 billion people alive today, means that 117 billion humans have populated the earth over time. However, it should be noted that, “As a general rule, the confidence of estimates on historical world population decreases for the more distant past” (an important caveat).

Doing some quick math (117 divided by 8) reveals that those people alive today represent about 15% of the total number of people who have ever lived.

With that background, let’s turn our attention to current populations across the earth by looking at the 50 highest populated countries.

You’ll note the current US population is roughly 340 million, while India and China are around 1.4 billion—more than four times that of the US.

Also note that Russia, at 144 million, is less than half that of the US—this should reassure those of you who fear Russia invading the US by sending troops onto our shores…or parachuting down like in Red Dawn.

But, this is just a snapshot in time; there are really many more factors that must be considered when looking at population.

Age

The following chart shows the 50 countries with the lowest average population age; it also includes the US for comparison.

The biggest takeaway from this chart is that the continent of Africa has a disproportionate number of countries with a very young population.

While average age tells you a story, it doesn’t tell you the whole story. To dig deeper, we can look at population pyramids, like the one below, to see the population in five-year cohorts. The below pyramid is for the world at large.

As expected, there are more younger people and fewer older people. This sounds obvious, but it’s a really important fact to acknowledge. Because mothers don’t birth five-year-olds or 20-year-olds (thank goodness!), as a cohort moves from one row up to another (say, from ages 0-4 up to ages 5-9), it will never get bigger, it will just shrink due to deaths.

The implications to future population size are borne out in the following diagrams that show you typical shapes of population pyramids.

In a closed system, such as the world at-large, change to a population occurs through births and deaths. Because there are no humans outside the earth (as far as we know), the age cohorts will not grow larger as they grow older.

However, in an open system, such as countries, change occurs through births, deaths, and migration. And in these open systems, cohorts can grow, or shrink, due to migration in, or out, of the countries. Demography, the study of populations, pays special attention to these birth rates, death (mortality) rates, and migration rates.

The Birds and the Bees

I’ll spare you the explanation of human procreation (you can watch this video, if you need); instead let’s just jump ahead to the post-birthing part. This chart from World Population Review provides a snapshot of current birth rates:

While birth rate measures the number of children born per 1,000 people, fertility rate measures the number of children born to a woman of childbearing age. The chart below from World Population Review shows current fertility rates. You’ll notice it tracks closely with birth rates, though there are some differences.

You can see the change in US fertility rates over time in this chart:

Compare that to the fertility rate in Niger, the dark blue shaded country in the map above.

While decreasing, the fertility rate in Niger is still much higher (6.5) than that of the US (1.75).

The population replacement rate, which is the fertility rate needed to maintain a society's population size, is 2.1 children per woman. Why 2.1? Well, it takes two children to replace two parents, and the .1 takes into account children who die before they are able to have children of their own. In reality, this number varies by country based on life-expectancy—some countries may require a larger fertility rate if the life exptancy in that country is low.

Given that the US has a fertility rate less than 2.1, the US will be unable to maintain its population size on births alone; you can see it in population pyramid below. Note the concerning lower percentages at the younger ages. More on this later.

The increasing or decreasing size of a population have wide-ranging impacts to a country.

Economically, it means there are fewer people working, which results in a lower GDP; and if those fewer people are supporting an ever-growing older population, then further strain is put on an economy and on the populace. Additional impacts of a decling population include lower demand for services and infrastructure, and decline in military strength.

The Young and the Restless

Now, let’s look at the continent of Africa, which is facing a different problem.

Going back to our age structure diagram, you’ll note this shape reflects rapid growth.

This is what led to the New York Times article, Old Word, Young Africa. The article includes great insights covering peril and potential, culture, jobs, leadership, militants, and more.

Here’s an overview:

Astonishing change is underway in Africa, where the population is projected to nearly double to 2.5 billion over the next quarter-century — an era that will not only transform many African countries, experts say, but also radically reshape their relationship with the rest of the world. Birthrates are tumbling in richer nations, creating anxiety about how to care for, and pay for, their aging societies. But Africa’s baby boom continues apace, fueling the youngest, fastest growing population on earth. In 1950, Africans made up 8 percent of the world’s people. A century later, they will account for one-quarter of humanity, and at least one-third of all young people aged 15 to 24, according to United Nations forecasts. The median age on the African continent is 19. In India, the world’s most populous country, it is 28. In China and the United States, it is 38. The implications of this “youthquake,” as some call it, are immense yet uncertain, and likely to vary greatly across Africa, a continent of myriad cultures and some 54 countries that covers an area larger than China, Europe, India and the United States combined. But its first signs are already here.

The article also includes some very informative charts:

…some concerns:

“In the 1970s and 1980s, when China, South Korea and Japan were the engines of population growth, their factories were filled with young people producing clothes, cars and TVs. It made them rich and lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty. Africa is poorly positioned to repeat that feat. Other than South Africa and a handful of countries in North Africa, most of the continent has failed to industrialize. In fact, it is losing ground: Africa’s share of global manufacturing is smaller today than it was in 1980. Infrastructure is an obstacle. Six hundred million Africans, or four in 10, lack electricity. An average American refrigerator consumes more power in a year than a typical person in Africa. Major roads and railways often lead to the coasts, a legacy of extractive colonialism, which inhibits trade between countries. And the baby boom endures, smothering economic growth. Other regions, like East Asia, prospered only after their birthrates had fallen substantially and a majority of their people had joined the work force — a phenomenon known as the “demographic transition” that has long driven global growth. Britain’s transition took two centuries, from the 1740s to the 1940s. Thailand did it in about 40 years. But in Africa, where birthrates remain stubbornly high — nearly twice the global average — that transition has proved elusive. For legions of jobless and frustrated young Africans, that leaves only one good option: Get out.”

…some observations:

“High birthrates alone do not cause insurgencies. But they are a major accelerant when combined with weak states and deep poverty.”

“Educating girls has an unusually large effect on family size in Africa because it delays the age of marriage and helps young women to space out their children, researchers have found. “It’s a natural kind of birth control,” said Habiba Mohammed, the program’s director.”

…and some hope:

“When the economist Ha-Joon Chang was growing up in South Korea in the 1960s, his country was subjected to the same condescension and racism leveled at many African nations today, he said. It was poor, had just emerged from war, and was seen by American officials as a basket case. A young population was a big part of South Korea’s success, Mr. Chang said. But it took other ingredients, too: visionary leaders, wise policies and education, as well as intangibles like drive, innovation and sheer good fortune, he said. “A lot of things have to work together.”

Aging Gracefully

On the other end of the spectrum we have older populations. For comparison, here are the 50 countries with the highest average age, plus the US (I have not color-coded these by continent):

This then brings up different problems—aging populations and death rates. Not only must birth rates be considered, but also life-expectancy (how long people live) must be taken into account.

As reported in the National Vital Statistics Reports,

In 2021, the overall expectation of life at birth was 76.4 years, decreasing 0.6 year from 77.0 in 2020. From 2020 to 2021, life expectancy at birth decreased by 0.7 year for males (from 74.2 to 73.5) and by 0.6 year for females (79.9 to 79.3).

Here, too, we can further slice the data and look at differences in life expectancy by sex. This data is captured in the population pyramids, but I think it’s helpful to look at it separately.

That same data can be graphed to just show the gap between female and male life expectancy.

Being a married man, whose wife reads these posts (I think), I will refrain from any jokes as to why men live shorter lives than women; instead I’ll just post this:

(the author may or may not be guilty of doing some variation of one the items above)

In all seriousness, according Harvard Medical School, men die before women becase they tend to: take bigger risks, have more dangerous jobs, die of heart disease more often and at a younger age, be larger than women, commit suicide more often than women, be less socially connected, and void doctors.

You can go here to look up your age and sex to see how many years you have left to live (estimated, of course). The good news is, the longer you live, the longer you’ll probably live…that is, until you don’t. For instance, a male at age 50, will live another 28.33 years, while a male at age 75 will live another 10.46 years.

What this really depends on is how my ladders you stand on or cars you sit under.

A Case for Immigration

The Wall Street Journal expanded on all of these topics with some great insights and infographics:

America’s long streak of population growth is expected to come to an end. Census Bureau projections released Thursday show that, under the most likely scenario, the U.S. will stop growing by 2080 and shrink slightly by 2100. It is the first time that the bureau has projected a population decline as part of its main outlook for the coming decades. The only time the U.S. has recorded a population decline was in 1918, when the flu pandemic and deployment abroad of more than one million troops produced a small drop in the estimated population.

Lets go back to the population pyramid for the US. The below animation shows how it’s changed over time—especially during the Baby Boom of the 1950’s and 1960’s.

The chart below shows the most current snapshot. As you can see, the younger cohorts (ages 0-4, 5-9, 15-19, etc…) are smaller than the older cohorts up to ages 30-34.

It’s for these reasons, and others (like goodwill), the US allows immigration—which is metaphorically “birthing” older people.

That WSJ article provides the following infographics to show how immigration will impact the US over the coming years:

So, the question isn’t “Should we allow immigration?”, but instead, “How many people do we allow to immigrate?”, “Who do we allow to immigrate?”, and “What rules do we establish for assimilation?”

The first question, “How many?”, is easiest to define because we have data showing us, across a number of areas—like economics—how many people are needed to sustain our population (after births and deaths). But, economics is not the only factor at play. This then leads to the more difficult questions of “Who?” and under “What rules"? And that is something we’ll have to save for another post.

Another option, of course, is to have more babies.

To wrap up, here’s a chart from the WSJ comparing the future projected growth of select countries. As you can see, one take-away is that India is on the rise, as China is on the decline.

Alas, running a country is difficult—a constant tension between today and tomorrow, where to apply resources, how to define a national identity, and much more. Monitoring and massaging the nation’s population size is just one component to that craziness.

I hope you found this article informative. If so, feel free to leave a comment, share with others, or subscribe—if you don’t already.

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