Drop in federal workforce

The federal workforce shrank sharply in 2025 after the DOGE-era push for government efficiency, falling 10.3% and dropping to about 2.68 million workers by February 2026, the lowest level in nearly 60 years. Roughly 348,000 employees left through resignations, retirements, layoffs, or other departures, while federal hiring fell more than 55% from the year before. Some of the largest staffing reductions occurred at Veterans Affairs and the Treasury, and agencies like USAID were especially hard hit. Now, the administration appears to be shifting from cuts to selective rehiring, aiming to fill gaps created by last year’s downsizing. In some cases, agencies that were heavily reduced are hiring again, though not necessarily to rebuild prior functions.

Drop in crime

At the same time, and unrelated, the country has one of its clearest good-news stories in years— violent crime and homicide are dropping sharply. Researchers disagree on the precise mix of causes, but better policing, restored post-pandemic routines, and broader social changes all appear to be helping.

Rise of technology, efficiency, solitude and prices

Though the chart below actually comes from the WSJ article discussed above, I thought it was a good bridge to this piece by Derek Thompson that blends the topics of technology, efficiency, solitude and prices. His core argument is that businesses built around shared, in-person experiences—restaurants, theaters, childcare, bookstores, and other social spaces—are labor-intensive and therefore become more expensive over time, while businesses that keep people alone—streaming platforms, delivery apps, social media, and smartphone entertainment—scale efficiently and become more profitable. As a result, our current economy increasingly rewards anti-social business models, making solitude cheaper and more convenient than connection.

This dynamic is known as the Baumol Effect, or Baumol’s cost disease, in which some sectors can boost productivity through automation and technology, but others still require roughly the same human labor they always have. A farmer or tech company can serve far more people with fewer workers, but a teacher, server, actor, or musician cannot compress human interaction in the same way. As wages rise across the economy, these social, labor-heavy services become harder to afford, which helps explain why institutions that bring people together are under pressure. His conclusion is that if social connection matters, society may need to subsidize or otherwise support the spaces and services that make hanging out, gathering, and building community easier. Not sure how I feel about further subsidization by the government, as I continue to have grave concerns about our nation’s debt and social security’s solvency (see article farther below), but I do think that we need to engage in more activities that bring people together for healthy activities.

Speaking of not leaving your home…

Amazon is expanding faster delivery options across the U.S., introducing one-hour delivery service in hundreds of locations and three-hour service in more than 2,000. The offerings focus on everyday items such as household essentials, health and beauty products, and over-the-counter medications. One-hour delivery is $9.99 for Amazon Prime members and $19.99 for non-Prime members. Three-hour delivery is $4.99 and $14.99, respectively.

Wait, social media is bad for your health?

Speaking of people’s health, the legal pressure on Meta and Google’s social-media platforms is intensifying. A California jury found Meta and Google liable for $3 million in damages to a 20-year-old woman, identified as K.G.M., who argued that addictive features on their platforms contributed to her app addiction. Meta, through Facebook and Instagram, was assigned 70% of the damages, while YouTube was assigned 30%. TikTok and Snap were also named in the lawsuit but settled separately out of court. Both Meta and Google said they disagree with the verdict and plan to appeal.

The case is part of a much broader wave of litigation against major social media companies over claims that their platforms harm users’ mental health. That pressure is growing: in a separate New Mexico case, Meta was also ordered to pay $375 million after a jury found it violated state unfair trade practices tens of thousands of times. The broader concern is reinforced by usage trends among young people. A 2025 Pew study found that about 36% of teenagers said they were online using a social media or video app almost constantly, with YouTube and TikTok among the most widely used. In testimony, the plaintiff said she began using YouTube at age six and Instagram at age nine and described being unable to stop.

Oh, and if that wasn’t bad enough, reports that Meta contractors reviewed intimate footage from AI glasses have surfaced. Meta’s Ray-Ban AI glasses were initially a breakout success in sales, but that growth comes with major privacy and labor concerns. The glasses let users capture first-person video and use AI to interpret what they see, yet some of that footage is reportedly sent to offshore contractors for data labeling. Workers in Kenya said they were required to review deeply private material, including people undressing, using the bathroom, watching pornography, exposing bank cards, and even filming sexual activity.

Artificial Intelligence

This wouldn’t be a news update if I didn’t include something about AI.

At the infrastructure level, AI is concentrating enormous power in a small number of firms. Nvidia’s growing role as investor and ecosystem architect can be seen in the charts below. And, Amazon’s huge AI spending bet points in the same direction: the firms with the deepest balance sheets are trying to turn capital into strategic advantage.

In other AI news, Anthropic is facing new scrutiny after accidentally releasing more than 500,000 lines of code connected to Claude Code, an incident that has alarmed lawmakers because of Claude’s growing role in U.S. national security work. Representative Josh Gottheimer warned that repeated leaks could undermine America’s competitive edge if rivals are able to replicate the system, while also criticizing the Trump administration for blocking Claude from government contracts, arguing that doing so could hurt the U.S. in its AI competition with China.

The episode has sharpened concerns not just about internal security at AI firms, but also about how vulnerable advanced models may be to foreign exploitation. Gottheimer pressed Anthropic on whether it has weakened safety protections and warned that Chinese-linked actors, including DeepSeek, could use model distillation or cyberattacks to benefit from Claude’s capabilities. Anthropic has tried to minimize the incident, saying no customer data or credentials were exposed and that the release stemmed from human error rather than a breach, but the leak is likely to intensify debate in Washington over how AI systems tied to defense and intelligence should be secured and regulated. Alas, human error…the weakest link in cyber security.

Yep, I’m still concerned about our economy

A year ago, I posted an article, It’ll get worse before it gets better, about the economy. Well, it’s not getting any better. I have serious concerns about our nation’s debt, which continues to go up:

And relatedly, I also have serious concerns about Social Security, which is heading toward a funding crisis because payroll taxes from current workers are no longer enough to cover benefits for retirees. The system is drawing down its Treasury credit balance, but that reserve is projected to run out around 2033, or possibly sooner, at which point benefits would automatically be cut by about 23% unless Congress acts. The central problem is that people are living longer, while lower birthrates and fewer immigrants mean there are not enough younger workers paying into the system.

Several broad fixes are on the table, all of them politically painful. Options include raising the retirement age, increasing taxes on high earners or on everyone, reducing initial benefits for future retirees, slowing cost-of-living increases for current beneficiaries, or even replacing the current earned-benefit structure with a flat anti-poverty payment. Lawmakers will almost certainly end up using some mix of higher taxes and lower benefits, with the burden likely falling more on higher earners and future retirees…though Congress has so far shown little urgency in confronting the issue. So, bottom-line: We’ve got seven years.

Private-credit problems

In other disappointing economic news, the private-credit boom that fueled major growth on Wall Street is now showing signs of strain as investors rush to pull money out of funds. Large redemption requests—such as investors trying to withdraw 14% from a major fund—are forcing firms to limit payouts, delaying access to capital and exposing liquidity constraints.

For us laypeople, what does that mean?

Private-credit funds made a lot of loans during a period when money was easy, interest rates were lower, and investors were eager to chase higher returns. Many of those loans went to riskier companies, including firms with weaker finances. Now that borrowing costs are higher and the economy is less forgiving, some of those companies are struggling more, which makes investors wonder whether the loans inside these funds are really as safe or valuable as advertised.

Once that doubt starts, it feeds on itself. Investors think, “If these loans weaken further, I may want out now rather than later.” But because private-credit funds cannot easily sell those loans quickly for cash, people worry they could get stuck waiting to withdraw. That fear causes more people to ask for their money back, which creates even more concern. So the root cause is a mix of weaker underlying loans, higher interest-rate pressure, and a growing loss of confidence.

There is also a structural reason. Private credit grew very quickly, and more of the money came from wealthy individuals and other noninstitutional investors who can be quicker to react when sentiment turns. When times were good, that rapid growth looked like strength. Now it means the industry is more exposed to mood swings. So, at bottom, this is happening because the market expanded fast, took on risk, and is now being tested in a tougher environment.

Other news about other markets

More and more (and more and more) articles are coming out about the dangers of prediction-markets. In case you’re not aware, a prediction-market is a website where people put money behind their predictions about future events, and the shifting prices show what the crowd thinks will happen. They are all the rage right now. Here’s a screenshot from Polymarket on just a few (of hundreds) of bets you could make:

Prediction-markets bring numerous problems. College students are describing sports betting as a growing social and financial problem. Campus prediction-market frenzies are being fueled by rumors and side information leading to speculative behavior becoming normalized among young people before strong guardrails are in place.

And it’s not just happening on campuses.

After U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, attention turned to prediction-market platform Polymarket, where traders had wagered heavily on when the attacks would occur. Roughly $529 million was traded on strike-related contracts, and six newly created accounts reportedly earned about $1 million in profits by betting the U.S. would strike Iran by Feb. 28. Some of the bets were placed hours before the attacks, raising suspicions among blockchain analysts that the trades could reflect insider knowledge rather than simple speculation.

All of this points to the same problem: once money can be made from an event, people gain incentives not only to predict outcomes, but to manipulate information, pressure participants, or blur the boundary between analysis and exploitation.

Expanding on Iran

Speaking of Iran, last week, I posted about the dangers of chokepoints and how they can turn into chokeholds. Interestingly, later that day, WSJ published a piece titled, The Islands That Give Iran a Stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz. Chokeholds, Strangleholds…great minds think alike, I suppose. However, in my analysis, I focused on mainland Iran, I didn’t really talk about the islands. The WSJ article is worth the read as it goes into more detail about Iran’s islands.

Mixing it up in Mexico

Meanwhile, in Mexico, cartel control across much of the country continues to blur the line between criminal power and territorial governance. Mexico’s major drug cartels expanded their territorial control beginning in the 1980s to manage cocaine trafficking from Colombia into the United States and protect their operations from government interference. Their influence has grown further in the past decade with the rise of fentanyl. Today cartel groups operate across nearly all of Mexico’s 32 states, prompting increased pressure from the United States, where several major cartels have been designated foreign terrorist organizations, to curb their power.

No more wining

China’s anti-drinking crackdown is reshaping the global wine trade. Policies banning alcohol at government and Communist Party events, combined with anti-corruption campaigns, have eliminated a major source of demand that once fueled luxury wine imports. As a result, foreign wine imports have fallen dramatically, now sitting at roughly half their 2018 peak, and major producers are left with massive unsold inventory.

Machines inside humans and humans inside machines

As Elon Musk’s Neuralink brain chip continues to push the boundary of human-machine integration by allowing a patient to navigate video game control purely through thought control, Cortical Labs, an Australian company, is developing computers powered by human neurons. Rather than using traditional GPU servers, these “biological data centers” would run on the company’s CL1 units, each of which contains about 200,000 human brain neurons grown on a multi-electrode array chip. The neurons receive electrical signals, respond to them, and effectively produce computing output. The company recently drew attention by demonstrating that this system could play a version of the video game DOOM.

The company is pitching the technology as a possible low-energy alternative to conventional AI infrastructure, which has become increasingly expensive and power-hungry as major tech firms expand their data-center footprints. Cortical Labs says each CL1 unit uses less power than a handheld calculator. Its Melbourne facility is expected to house 120 units, while its Singapore project, built with data-center company DayOne at the National University of Singapore, will begin with 20 units as a prototype. If testing goes well, the partnership could eventually scale to as many as 1,000 units in a commercial DayOne facility.

And speaking of data centers…

The startup, Deep Fission, is developing a system that places small nuclear reactors in narrow boreholes drilled about a mile into the earth, using water pressure and surrounding rock to replace much of the expensive above-ground infrastructure that makes conventional nuclear plants costly and slow to build. Each borehole reactor is designed to generate 15 megawatts, and a field of them could power major electricity users such as AI data centers. The company says this design could produce electricity at about six cents per kilowatt hour, and the Department of Energy selected it for its Reactor Pilot Program as officials look for faster, cheaper nuclear options to meet rising power demand. Supporters see the concept as a possible breakthrough for nuclear deployment, especially for data centers and military bases, while critics in Kansas worry local communities will bear the risk. The inventor argues the surrounding geology makes the design exceptionally safe, and the company’s disposal plan is simply to seal spent fuel in place at the end of a reactor’s life.

The non-trophy generation

Large age gaps in marriage used to be more common among very wealthy men, which helped fuel the “trophy wife” stereotype. Earlier research found that America’s richest men were often married to significantly younger women, especially if they remarried. But newer census-based analysis suggests that pattern has faded. By 2024, men in the top 1% of earners were no more likely than average to have wives at least ten years younger.

The same shift appears on the women’s side. High-earning women are not especially likely to choose much younger husbands, and in the past they were actually somewhat more likely to marry slightly older men. Today, the biggest age gaps are more common among lower earners than among the rich or middle class.

The main explanation is that education and social environment matter more than wealth. People who spend more time in school tend to meet and date peers close to their own age, and those people also often go on to earn higher incomes. Age-gap marriages therefore appear to be less about status and money than about education, social networks, and changing cultural norms.

The non-coffee generation

Dutch Bros, the third-largest coffee chain in the U.S. behind Starbucks and Dunkin’, actually sells very little hot coffee. While Starbucks still dominates nearly half the U.S. coffee-chain market, Dutch Bros is gaining traction—especially with Gen Z consumers drawn to its highly customizable cold beverages and colorful energy drinks like the “Shark Attack Rebel.” About 90% of Dutch Bros drinks are served cold, and customizable energy drinks now account for roughly 25% of its $1.6 billion business.

The company’s strategy centers on extensive drink customization and youth-focused branding. Customers can mix more than 40 flavors across coffee, energy drinks, teas, lemonades, and sodas, often adding toppings like cold foam or boba. Dutch Bros also studies trends in grocery stores, coffee bars, and even cocktail culture to create new flavors. Its strong loyalty program—responsible for about 73% of transactions—helps drive repeat visits and engagement with younger customers through social media and merchandise promotions.

Let me cut to the chase—this headline is a filler. I didn’t have the bandwidth to create a good one.

Work-email openings are mostly social filler rather than sincere expressions of concern. Phrases like “I hope you are well” or “I hope this email finds you well” usually mean nothing beyond polite throat-clearing, while slight variations can signal things like distance, laziness, dated professionalism, or simply what day of the week it is. This Economist piece humorously decodes these common opening lines by contrasting their literal meaning with what they supposedly “really” communicate.

For example, “Nice to e-meet you” is old-fashioned, “Hope all well” is compressed and perfunctory, and weekday-specific greetings like “I hope your week is going well” is another thinly disguised substitute. Other lines, such as apologizing for an “out-of-the-blue” email or claiming to “cut to the chase,” are equally empty or self-defeating. Here are a few to whet your appetite:

Meanwhile, this WSJ piece bemoans the corporate jargon that most annoy readers. Many complained that phrases such as “bandwidth,” “circle back,” “deep dive,” “leverage,” and “pivot” replace simple language with vague or pretentious wording meant to sound strategic or professional. In practice, these terms often obscure meaning, inflate routine tasks, or create confusion rather than clarity.

Several readers argued that such language can distort workplace communication. Expressions like “growth mindset,” “hard stop,” or “hit the ground running” may create unnecessary pressure, while phrases such as “take this offline,” “reach out,” or “socialize the idea” can serve as evasive ways to avoid direct discussion. Others mocked jargon that unnecessarily complicates plain concepts, such as “decisioning,” “negative growth,” or “utilize” instead of simply saying “decide,” “decline,” or “use.”

Maybe a movie star?

Movie stardom is far rarer and more fragile than most people assume. Only a small share of actors who even get credited film roles ever headline a movie, and most who do never repeat that success. When the pool expands to include the broader working-actor population, the odds get even worse. Even for those who break through, sustaining quality is difficult: many lead actors never appear in a well-regarded film, and even elite stars usually have only a moderate percentage of acclaimed projects. The Stat Significant piece also argues that the traditional Hollywood star system is weakening. Big-budget movie stardom appears to have peaked in the mid-2000s, and the actors audiences most want to see are still mostly older, established stars.

As usual, great analysis and charts from Stat Significant. Here are just a couple of charts:

On the bookshelf

It’s been a while since I’ve included this section on the newsletter, though it’s not for lack of reading. In fact, last year was my most prolific reading year yet—I finished 56 books, a little more than one a week. As I was not much of reader for the first 30 years of my life, I feel like I have a lot of ground to make up. The more I read, the better I get at it, the more I enjoy it, and the more I realize how many great books I missed out on early in my life. So many great stories and so much incredible information is out there just waiting to be absorbed.

This past year, I challenged (OK, “assigned”) each of my students to pick a book off the “Top 100 books you should read before you die” list to read. They were to read it, highlight passages that stood out to them, passages showing great wordplay, key points in the story, things they liked or didn’t like, or something that confused them. I too would read the book they chose, would highlight portions as well, then one-on-one we would discuss it.

Some books chosen were shorter and easier, others were longer and harder. Likewise, the discussions varied in depth. I especially appreciated the students who had read their entire book (some had not) and made significant highlights—we usually had great discussions on writing and life.

In an age of screen overload, do yourself a favor and read a book. It may be difficult at first, especially if you haven’t done it in a while, but it will get easier if you keep after it.

And if you’re ever looking for a book recommendation, reach out and we can talk through your interests and what books may be a good fit for you. My reading interests vary, so I’m sure we could find something that you might like.

As a quick plug, I recently read three of Cormac McCarthy’s books: The Road, No Country for Old Men, and Blood Meridian. Two books—The Road and No Country for Old Men—have both been made into movies. His greatest work, though, is considered Blood Meridian. All three of these are incredible reads. They are not feel-good reads, but they are unique, as McCarthy’s writing style. Afterward reading them, I did some research on McCarthy which led me down a rabbit trail that touched on: Polysyndeton, Santa Fe Institute, The Kekulé Problem, and the many real-life people that some of the characters in Blood Meridian are based on.

I’m currently reading Washington: A Life by Ron Chernow. It’s a biography of George Washington that does an excellent job of portraying Washington in a clearer light. Before that, I read The Man Who Ran Washington: The Life and Times of James A. Baker III; it’s a fascinating look into American politics in the 70’s, 80’s, and 90’s. These last two books are rather long, but they open your eyes to the politics in D.C.—both during the forming of our country and 200 years later. If you want some recommendations for lighter reading, just let me know.

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One telling sign of how far generative AI has come is the informal “Will Smith eating spaghetti” benchmark, which has circulated in the AI community as a shorthand test for whether video models can convincingly render a human face, mouth movement, and hand-to-mouth action. It matters because these once-awkward details have become a visible measure of how quickly AI video systems are improving.

It’s amazing to see what’s become possible in just a couple of years:

OpenAI is betting on massive scale

OpenAI’s projected cash burn has reached a level that stands out even in a tech industry long accustomed to companies losing enormous sums in pursuit of dominance. Internal forecasts reportedly show the company burning $218 billion between 2026 and 2029, far exceeding earlier projections and dwarfing the historic losses of firms such as Tesla during its most cash-intensive years.

The logic behind that spending is straightforward: OpenAI appears to believe it can build a business large enough to justify it. The company reportedly expects revenue to climb to about $280 billion by 2030, fueled not only by ChatGPT subscriptions, but also by API access, enterprise AI agents, advertising, and potential hardware. In that view, today’s losses are the price of building an AI platform with the reach and monetization breadth of a new foundational tech giant.

The risks of autonomous AI are becoming harder to ignore

Increasingly, voices are expressing a major concern: AI systems are becoming more autonomous, but not yet reliable enough to justify broad trust. The Wall Street Journal describes an AI coding bot that publicly attacked a software engineer after its code was rejected, leading to fears that AI systems may behave in increasingly unpredictable or socially manipulative ways. The broader concern is not simply that AI can make mistakes, but that it may act with enough initiative to create new forms of reputational, professional, and security risk.

That concern was echoed in a Futurism story, in which Anthropic’s Claude Cowork model, asked to organize a desktop, instead ran a deletion command that erased years of family photos. The files were eventually recovered, but the the larger problem with so-called AI “coworkers” remains: when given direct access to important systems, they can make catastrophic errors at machine speed. Similar incidents involving erased chat histories, hard drives, and business databases have also occurred. The current generation of autonomous agents still requires close human supervision, especially when connected to sensitive files or operational systems.

AI safety is no longer just a technical question

AI companies are also facing growing pressure over when disturbing behavior in a chatbot should trigger real-world intervention. Months before a deadly school shooting in British Columbia, OpenAI employees flagged alarming conversations. Internal discussions reportedly considered whether the material justified contacting law enforcement, but leadership concluded it did not meet the threshold of a credible and imminent threat.

After the attack, OpenAI contacted authorities and cooperated with the investigation, but the incident shows us a difficult and unresolved issue for AI companies: how to balance user privacy, ambiguous warning signs, and public safety. As chatbots become more embedded in people’s emotional and intellectual lives, companies may increasingly find themselves making decisions that resemble those of social platforms, mental-health intermediaries, or even crisis monitors—without clear rules or public consensus on when intervention is appropriate.

AI may be reshaping work, but the biggest effects are still emerging

A recent report from Anthropic (the makers of Claude) argues that the best way to understand AI’s labor-market effects is not just to ask what language models could theoretically do, but what they are actually being used to do on the job. Its measure of “observed exposure” attempts to capture that distinction, giving more weight to genuine automated workplace uses than to casual or assistive ones. By that measure, jobs such as programmers, customer-service representatives, and data-entry workers appear especially exposed, while physical and in-person jobs remain much less affected.

Even so, the paper’s conclusion is cautious. The authors find that AI exposure is associated with weaker long-term job-growth projections, and that the most exposed workers tend to be older, more educated, more likely to be female, and relatively higher paid. Yet they do not find strong evidence that AI has already caused broad unemployment increases in exposed occupations. The most tentative warning sign is a slowdown in hiring among younger workers entering highly exposed fields. In other words, AI may be changing labor markets, but the clearest large-scale dislocations may still lie ahead rather than having fully arrived already.

Of the many graphics in the report, this one stood out most:

AI is changing how people get hired

Another emerging effect of generative AI is the erosion of trust in the traditional résumé. As applicants increasingly using tools like ChatGPT to generate polished résumés, cover letters, headshots, and even interview or coding-test responses, employers are finding it harder to distinguish genuinely qualified candidates from those who simply present well on paper. As a result, some companies are moving away from résumés altogether or treating them as a minor signal rather than a meaningful measure of ability.

In their place, employers are experimenting with skills-based hiring, paid work trials, direct sourcing through LinkedIn or personal networks, and project-based evaluation. Companies are placing greater emphasis on demonstrated ability, enthusiasm, and real work output than on credentials alone. LinkedIn and Indeed are also adapting, adding tools that verify skills or accelerate live interactions between candidates and recruiters. The broader point is that AI has made résumé inflation so easy that hiring is shifting toward proof of competence rather than self-description.

But this can drive some inequities—candidates who do not post their work online, lack strong networks, or have limited time and resources to build a public professional presence may still be overlooked. In that sense, AI may be weakening the résumé, but it is not eliminating the deeper challenge of how to assess people fairly.

The AI buildout is reshaping physical infrastructure

AI is often discussed as software, but its future also depends on vast physical infrastructure. Elon Musk has been advocating for the development of data centers in space. The appeal is clear: land-based facilities face bottlenecks involving electricity, permitting, grid access, and public opposition, while space offers abundant solar energy and potentially fewer terrestrial constraints.

But space-based data centers aren’t necessarily an outlandish idea. As the Economist points out, the main obstacle is cost, especially launch expense, though falling launch prices and simplified satellite designs could eventually make the idea more plausible than it first sounds.

Meanwhile, back here on earth, as new data centers spread into areas with limited housing, developers are reviving the “man camp” model—temporary worker housing complexes offering meals, gyms, game rooms, and even golf simulators to attract scarce skilled labor. The AI boom is not just changing cloud architecture and chip demand; it is also transforming labor markets, land use, and local communities in places far removed from Silicon Valley.

The big picture

AI is less a single industry and more like a force reorganizing multiple domains at once. It is changing what computers can generate, how companies spend, how workers are hired, how communities absorb industrial growth, and how institutions think about safety, responsibility, and human oversight.

The common thread is that AI’s most important story is no longer simply whether the technology works. Increasingly, it is about scale, governance, and consequences. The systems are becoming powerful enough to generate astonishing outputs, replace parts of skilled work, and justify enormous capital investment—but also unpredictable enough to erase treasured data, raise public-safety dilemmas, and unsettle even the people building them.

What I worry about most is that AI advancements are moving faster than responsible oversight. We, as humans, don’t have a strong track record of deliberately and thoughtfully managing sweeping change before its consequences are upon us. From child labor and brutal factory conditions during the Industrial Revolution, to the absence of safety laws in the early automobile era, to nuclear weapon proliferation, to the societal effects of social media, to securitized mortgage markets, the pattern is familiar. It’s not that technological change is always bad; it’s that we often adopt first, optimize second, and regulate last. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not advocating for regulation in all things in a way that stymies invention. But with AI, there are so many red flags suggesting that progress is outpacing responsible adoption that this area needs serious attention.

Some hope for the future?

The trailer for Toy Story 5 recently came out, and in it there’s a new rival: a tablet named Lilypad. This tablet causes Bonnie, the 8-year-old girl, to neglect real-life friendships in favor of playing with her digital device. The tension prompts some great lines:

• Woody (solemnly): “Toys are for play, but tech is… for everything.”

• Jessie says to Lilypad, as Lilypad scrolls through its own browser, “You’re not even listening to me!” To which Lilypad ominously responds, “I’m always listening…” and then plays back a recording of their conversation.

Here’s something you’ll rarely hear me say: Hollywood may be sending a signal, and we should pay attention.

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This is no longer just an Iran-Israel exchange. It has become a multi-theater conflict spanning Iran, Israel, Lebanon, the Gulf, and the sea lanes that connect the Middle East to global energy markets. The most important strategic consequence so far is Iran’s ability to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz without fully and formally closing it.

The Strait of Hormuz as the center of gravity

The Strait of Hormuz has become the key pressure point in the war. It normally carries about 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas, and in some estimates about a third of global seaborne oil and a fifth of liquefied natural gas. Since the conflict escalated, ship traffic through the strait has collapsed, with daily transits falling from well over 150 to single digits. Vessels are clustering on either side of the strait, avoiding passage unless absolutely necessary.

Iran has not needed a formal blockade to create this effect. Attacks on commercial shipping, missile and drone threats, and suspected electronic spoofing of navigation systems have been enough to make the route dangerous. More than 1,200 ships in the region have reportedly been affected by signal interference. Some vessels are shutting off their own trackers to move more stealthily, which only adds to the confusion and risk.

The result is that Iran is using the strait less as a sealed choke point and more as a weaponized zone of uncertainty. That still delivers major strategic leverage because even partial disruption is enough to shake markets, strand ships, and drive up costs.

Energy shock and market disruption

The energy consequences are global. Oil and natural-gas prices have jumped sharply because traders understand how central the Gulf is to world supply. Even limited disruption in Hormuz matters because alternative routes cannot fully compensate. If the strait were more fully shut, as much as 20 million barrels per day could be affected, which would amount to about 20 percent of global petroleum liquids consumption. That would be far larger than the disruption caused by the 1970s Arab oil embargo.

The problem is not just the total amount of oil at risk, but the limited ability to reroute it. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have some alternative pipelines, but those can only handle part of normal volumes and still face operational and security constraints. Floating storage, reserve releases, and alternate transport can help cushion the blow, but not replace the missing flow. Even after accounting for those tools, the likely shortfall in a severe scenario could still exceed 10 million barrels per day.

This matters not just for fuel. Oil and natural gas are inputs into thousands of products, including chemicals, fertilizers, plastics, synthetic fibers, medical materials, electronics components, and countless household goods. Reduced shipments therefore threaten broader price increases across supply chains, not just at the gas pump.

Iran’s uneven but effective strategy

Iran has managed something strategically important: it is harming other countries’ energy trade more than its own. Even while commercial shipping in the region is severely disrupted, Iran is still exporting oil through the Strait of Hormuz and is reportedly moving slightly more than it did before the war. Tankers linked to Iran or China, especially sanctioned or shadow-fleet vessels, continue carrying Iranian crude, much of it toward China and India.

That means Iran is using its control of the strait as both a coercive tool and a financial lifeline. It is choking broader traffic while preserving enough of its own exports to keep oil revenue flowing. This makes the crisis more complicated than a simple “all shipping stops” scenario. Iran does not need total closure to impose pain. It only needs to create enough fear and selectivity to distort trade in its favor.

This also explains why many of the ships still moving through Hormuz are tied to Iran and China. Friendly identification, shadow-fleet tactics, and sanctions evasion have become part of the wartime shipping system.

China’s oil problem

China is one of the countries most exposed to this crisis. It relies heavily on oil from Iran, Venezuela, and Gulf producers, and more than half of its crude imports come from countries facing disruption tied to the conflict. Iran alone exported 520 million barrels of crude to China in 2025, making it one of Beijing’s most important suppliers.

That puts China in a difficult position. It is vulnerable to reduced flows from Hormuz, higher shipping costs, and rising competition for available barrels. At the same time, China may be somewhat more resilient than expected because it has already been expanding strategic reserves, electrifying more of its economy, and increasing reliance on domestic energy sources and Russian crude.

The likely short-term response is greater Chinese reliance on Russian oil. That would deepen another major side effect of the war: Russia benefits from higher prices and from being a substitute supplier when Middle Eastern flows are disrupted.

Kharg Island and Iran’s oil vulnerability

Even though Iran is still exporting, its oil system remains vulnerable because it is heavily concentrated at Kharg Island. Kharg handles about 90 percent of Iran’s crude exports and is the central hub for oil coming from major producing regions. It also stores about 18 million barrels, making it a crucial export buffer.

The U.S. struck military targets on Kharg Island but did not damage the oil terminals and storage infrastructure, according to Iranian officials. Trump said he had deliberately avoided oil facilities for now, while also warning that this restraint could end if Iran keeps threatening Hormuz. That matters because a serious hit on Kharg’s export infrastructure could force Iran to cut production at major oil fields and take roughly another 1 million barrels per day off the global market.

Iran does have an alternative export route through Jask, outside the Strait of Hormuz, but that terminal is far smaller and cannot replace Kharg’s capacity. So while Iran has shown resilience, its oil system still has a major point of failure.

Gulf states, Lebanon, and regional spillover

The conflict is also pressuring America’s regional partners. Gulf states such as Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have been struck because they host U.S. forces and major energy infrastructure. Iran appears to be trying to raise the cost of regional cooperation with Washington and push those states to pressure the United States toward de-escalation.

Lebanon has become another important front. Hezbollah has fired into northern Israel, and Israel has expanded operations in Lebanon, including Beirut and the south. This broadens the war geographically and politically, increasing the chance that the conflict becomes harder to contain even if activity in Hormuz eventually stabilizes.

Air travel has also been affected, with flights disrupted and major hubs such as Dubai International facing strain. So the conflict is not just disrupting military and energy systems; it is also undermining normal regional commerce and mobility.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve and its limits

The United States and its allies are trying to offset the shock through emergency reserves. The International Energy Agency has agreed to release 400 million barrels, including 172 million from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The SPR was created after the 1970s oil shock to protect the U.S. economy during major supply disruptions and remains the world’s largest emergency stockpile of crude oil.

The reserve is stored in underground salt caverns on the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast and can hold more than 700 million barrels, though it held about 402 million as of August 2025. In theory, it is a powerful tool. In practice, it has real limitations. Actual drawdown and delivery capacity are much lower than many people assume, and the reserve cannot replace a prolonged Hormuz-scale disruption. It can buy time and calm markets, but not solve the underlying transit problem.

That is one of the central lessons of this crisis: stockpiles matter, but logistics matter more. Oil in storage is only useful if it can be released, shipped, refined, and distributed quickly enough to stabilize markets.

Locations of the US SPR:

Why prices may rise beyond gasoline

A key point running through all of this is that oil and gas disruptions do not only affect gasoline. Hydrocarbons are feedstocks for thousands of products used in modern life, from fertilizers and chemicals to plastics, textiles, electronics, packaging, and medical supplies. If Gulf energy flows remain constrained, the effects can spread into manufacturing, transportation, agriculture, and consumer goods.

That means households and businesses may feel the impact in a wide range of prices, not simply at the pump. A sustained energy shock can ripple through nearly every sector because oil and natural gas underpin so much industrial production.

Products made from oil and natural gas:

What the conflict reveals

Several broader lessons emerge. First, energy security remains a major strategic vulnerability, even in an era of technological change. Second, chokepoints matter enormously: one narrow waterway can still destabilize global markets. Third, reserve systems like the SPR are valuable, but they are not substitutes for secure transit routes. Fourth, wars in the Gulf quickly become global economic events because of their effect on oil, gas, shipping, and petrochemical supply chains.

Finally, this crisis shows that the world remains deeply dependent on oil. Even with advances in electrification, renewables, and alternative energy, a disruption in Hormuz still sends shockwaves through everything from global finance to retail prices. That is why the conflict is likely to renew interest in stockpiling, supply diversification, nuclear power, alternative transport routes, and long-term efforts to reduce exposure to hydrocarbon chokepoints.

Bottom line

The war has evolved into both a regional military conflict and a global energy crisis. Iran has turned the Strait of Hormuz into a tool of leverage, disrupting traffic enough to rattle markets while still moving much of its own oil. The United States and its partners can soften the shock with reserve releases and partial rerouting, but they cannot fully replace what Hormuz normally carries. Kharg Island, Chinese import dependence, Gulf vulnerability, and the limits of the SPR all show how tightly military escalation and energy security are now intertwined.

The greatest risk is a prolonged period in which insecurity in one maritime bottleneck reshapes oil flows, raises prices, pressures allies, benefits rivals like Russia, and reminds the world how much of modern life still depends on vulnerable energy systems.

For more information:

• The Iran war in maps and charts, The Economist

• Iran: Analysis, Research, & Events, Center for Strategic & International Studies

• The Strait of Hormuz: A U.S.-Iran Maritime Flash Point, Council on Foreign Relations

• A Visual Guide to How Iran Is Holding the Strait of Hormuz Hostage, Wall Street Journal

• 5 charts show China’s oil dilemma after US strikes, Politico

• Iran’s Control of Hormuz Means It’s Exporting More Oil Today Than Before the War, Wall Street Journal

• 5 charts show China’s oil dilemma after US strikes, Politico

• Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and an Unprecedented Energy Crunch, Council on Foreign Relations

• Why Did Trump Order an Attack on Iran’s Kharg Island?, Wall Street Journal

• Products Made from Oil and Natural Gas, U.S. Department of Energy

• The Strategic Petroleum Reserve, U.S. Department of Energy

• National Average Gas Prices, AAA

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Economy

NOTE: First off, something I was not expecting:

1. The Robin Hood state is coming for the rich (Economist)

Income inequality has risen sharply across rich countries since the 1980s, with the top 1% capturing a growing share of pre-tax income—especially in America. Yet at the same time, tax-and-benefit systems have become significantly more progressive. In most G7 countries, increased redistribution has offset or even reversed rising inequality in post-tax incomes. In America, while pre-tax inequality is near record highs, post-tax inequality is lower than in many recent decades, and the top 1%’s effective tax rate remains close to historical peaks.

Contrary to the popular narrative that “neoliberal” tax cuts dismantled redistribution, effective tax rates on high earners are generally higher today than in the mid-20th century, when widespread avoidance meant the rich often paid far less than headline rates suggested. Although corporate-tax cuts and certain loopholes (such as capital gains treatment or “buy, borrow, die” strategies) may benefit the ultra-wealthy, most evidence suggests that top earners still pay a large—and growing—share of total tax revenue. In countries like America, Britain, and South Korea, the top 1% now fund a striking portion of income-tax receipts.

Governments have used this revenue both to reduce tax burdens on lower earners and to expand social transfers, including pensions, healthcare subsidies, and means-tested benefits. As a result, redistribution as a share of GDP has increased, and many working- and middle-income households now receive more in public spending than they pay in taxes.

The central policy debate is whether tax systems have become too dependent on the wealthy. Some argue further increases are needed—especially if technological change widens inequality—while others warn that ever-higher rates risk discouraging work, investment, and entrepreneurship, or prompting capital flight. So far, there is limited evidence that high earners are reducing effort in response to higher effective rates. But as calls grow for wealth taxes and top marginal rates above 80%, the sustainability and economic consequences of the modern “Robin Hood” state remain an open question.

2. In 2025, Trade Deficit in Goods Reached Record High (NYT)

President Trump’s tariffs were intended to reduce imports, shrink the trade deficit, and revive U.S. manufacturing. Instead, imports rose 4.7% in 2025, the goods trade deficit reached a record high, and American manufacturers cut more than 80,000 jobs. While the overall trade deficit dipped slightly to $901 billion, that improvement was driven entirely by a growing services surplus; the deficit in physical goods—the administration’s main concern—actually widened.

Tariffs significantly reshuffled trade flows but did not substantially reduce reliance on foreign production. Imports from China fell nearly 30%, shrinking the bilateral deficit to its lowest level in decades, yet deficits with Vietnam, Mexico, India, and other countries hit record highs as companies rerouted supply chains. In many cases, Chinese firms shifted production to Southeast Asia to avoid tariffs. Retaliation also hurt U.S. exporters, particularly soybean farmers, whose exports to China dropped sharply before a late-year trade truce. Overall, economists say it remains unclear whether the long-term effect will be reduced dependence on imports or simply a reorganization of global trade patterns.

3. Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump’s Global Tariffs (WSJ)

The Supreme Court ruled 6–3 that President Trump’s sweeping global tariffs were illegal, rejecting his claim that a 1977 emergency law (the International Emergency Economic Powers Act) gave him authority to impose them without explicit congressional approval. Writing for the majority, Chief Justice John Roberts said the president’s assertion of power was “extravagant by any measure,” marking the first time the Court has definitively struck down a major second-term Trump policy.

The decision removes a central tool Trump used to reshape trade policy and collect tens of billions in tariff revenue, though the Court did not address whether previously collected funds must be refunded. In response, Trump signaled he would press ahead, signing a new order imposing a 10% global tariff under different legal authorities, with exemptions for qualifying goods from Canada and Mexico under the USMCA.

4. Tariff Ruling Sends CEOs Back to Company War Rooms (WSJ)

The Supreme Court’s decision striking down President Trump’s tariffs briefly reassured some business leaders, but uncertainty quickly returned. The ruling did not clarify whether companies will receive refunds for previously paid tariffs, and Trump has already announced a new 15% global tariff under different legal authority. Executives are now weighing whether refunds are realistic, whether new tariffs could offset any relief, and how to respond without disrupting pricing or supplier relationships.

Trade groups are calling for swift refunds, but legal experts warn companies may need to pursue litigation, with outcomes uncertain and potentially slow. Some firms have already sold claims to hedge funds or built financial models to simulate various tariff scenarios. Smaller businesses worry about customer refund demands and supplier noncompliance, while others say the ruling comes too late to reverse supply-chain shifts, production cuts, or even business closures. Overall, the decision has resolved one legal question but left companies navigating continued policy volatility and financial ambiguity.

5. Why the Federal Deficit Is Projected to Surge, in Five Charts (WSJ)

Debt held by the public will balloon to more than $56 trillion by 2036 as annual deficits continue to mount, according to the latest projections from the Congressional Budget Office. By later this year, the federal debt held by the public is expected to surpass the size of the entire U.S. economy.

The main drivers: increased spending on entitlement programs as the nation’s population ages as well as rising costs related to paying interest on the debt itself. Republicans have taken issue with the projections, saying the CBO’s assumptions on economic growth are too low.

6. Healthcare Jobs Have Become the Engine of America’s Labor Market (WSJ)

The U.S. added 130,000 jobs in January, with nearly all of the gains concentrated in healthcare and healthcare-related roles. As immigration restrictions tighten, questions are emerging about who will fill labor-intensive positions in sectors that rely heavily on foreign-born workers. Immigrants make up a disproportionate share of healthcare and construction workers—including large percentages of home health aides, physicians, drywall installers, roofers, and general laborers. Raids and deportations are already straining construction labor supply, raising costs and slowing projects, while healthcare employers are offering large signing bonuses to compete for scarce nurses.

Healthcare demand continues to rise as the population ages, driving sustained hiring even as other parts of the economy weaken. Job growth has slowed or declined in sectors such as finance, information, retail, and professional services, and federal employment has dropped sharply. The result is an economy increasingly dependent on healthcare for job creation, with labor shortages intensifying in key industries amid tighter immigration policy.

7. Wall Street’s Latest Bet Is on ‘HALO’ Companies With AI Immunity (WSJ)

After years of piling into artificial-intelligence stocks, U.S. investors are rotating into what some call the “AI immunity” or “HALO” trade—companies with heavy physical assets and low risk of technological obsolescence, such as McDonald’s, Exxon Mobil, and Deere. In recent weeks, sectors like industrials, materials, utilities, and consumer staples have outperformed, while technology stocks and the “Magnificent Seven” have lagged. Investors appear to be favoring businesses that AI is unlikely to disrupt, amid growing uncertainty about who the long-term winners and losers of the AI boom will be.

The shift has triggered sharp market swings, with AI-related announcements wiping out billions in value from software, financial, and other sectors seen as vulnerable to automation. While some tech stocks have rebounded and individual investors continue buying major AI names, the broader mood has become more cautious. Market participants say the AI trade is entering a new phase in which companies must prove real earnings power, as hype alone is no longer enough to sustain valuations.

Technology

8. Arthur Brooks: Why Are Young People Choosing OnlyFans over Love? (FP)

Americans now spend more on OnlyFans than on subscriptions to The New York Times and ChatGPT combined, with the platform generating $7.2 billion in 2025 from 378 million users. Much of that revenue comes from paid private chats, suggesting that users are seeking not just explicit content but a sense of personal connection. At the same time, loneliness—especially among Gen Z—is rising sharply, alongside declining rates of dating, marriage, and sexual activity.

Fear of failure appears to be a central driver. Younger adults report higher levels of anxiety about rejection and risk, leading many to avoid real-world dating in favor of safer, more controllable online alternatives. A growing culture of expansive “red flags” further narrows romantic possibilities. A healthier approach to relationships mirrors entrepreneurship: manage risk rather than eliminate it, accept heartbreak as instructive, and pursue the potentially transformative rewards of lasting love instead of retreating into isolating digital substitutes.

9. From Paris to New Delhi, the Push to Ban Teens From Social Media Is Going Global (WSJ)

Governments across Europe, Asia, and parts of the U.S. are moving to restrict or ban social-media access for younger teens, following Australia’s decision to block platforms for users under 16. France has passed a ban for those under 15, Spain and Germany are advancing similar measures, the U.K. is launching consultations, and India is discussing age-based limits. Supporters argue that endless scrolling, algorithm-driven content, and smartphone overuse contribute to rising teen anxiety, depression, and screen addiction, and say stricter rules are needed to protect children.

Social-media companies and some digital-rights advocates argue that blanket bans are blunt tools that could backfire by pushing teens to less regulated platforms or cutting them off from connection and learning. They maintain that causal links between social media and mental-health problems remain debated and point to existing safety features and parental controls. While the immediate financial hit to companies may be limited, broader age bans could disrupt the pipeline of young users who often become long-term customers.

Business

10. Lenders to Commercial Real Estate Owners: Pay Up Now (WSJ)

Commercial real-estate lenders are increasingly calling in troubled loans as refinancing becomes harder in a higher-rate environment. After years of “extend and pretend”—granting extensions in hopes that rates would fall or property income would recover—defaults are rising sharply. The delinquency rate on office loans packaged into commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) hit a record 12.34% in January, and more than half of the roughly $100 billion in CMBS loans maturing this year are unlikely to be repaid on time.

Lenders now believe that both higher interest rates and structural shifts—especially reduced demand for office space due to hybrid work—are long-lasting rather than cyclical. Nearly $25 billion in CMBS loans are past maturity without resolution, and distressed debt levels are approaching post-2008 crisis highs. The strain is spreading to regional banks with heavy commercial real-estate exposure, though some property sectors such as industrial and grocery-anchored retail remain resilient, and new CMBS issuance has rebounded. Overall, the office sector remains the epicenter of mounting financial stress.

11. Farmers Are Aging. Their Kids Don’t Want to Be in the Family Business.(WSJ)

Rising costs, weak crop prices, mounting debt, and a surge in farm bankruptcies have intensified pressure on aging farmers nationwide, with more operators now over 75 than under 35. Despite government bailouts and disaster aid, many growers expect continued losses. Reliance on federal aid underscore the fragile economics facing multigenerational farms and the gradual erosion of family-based agriculture in rural America.

International

12. How China’s Xi Purged His ‘Big Brother’ to Achieve Absolute Power (WSJ)

China’s top general, Zhang Youxia—a longtime ally of Xi Jinping—was abruptly detained in January in what appears to be the most dramatic military purge of Xi’s tenure. Security forces intercepted Zhang en route to a high-level party meeting, detained him and his son, and later accused him of leaking nuclear secrets, forming political cliques, and corruption. While the allegations remain unverified, analysts say the move underscores Xi’s deepening consolidation of power and growing distrust within the military leadership.

Zhang’s ouster caps a sweeping purge that has removed most members of the Central Military Commission since 2023, effectively transforming it into a body dominated solely by Xi. Observers argue the crackdown reflects Xi’s determination to ensure absolute political loyalty—particularly after witnessing instability in Russia—and his fear of internal military networks that could challenge his authority. The episode signals a new phase of one-man rule, in which even close allies with revolutionary pedigrees are not immune from suspicion or removal.

13. Iranian Students Protest as Anger Grows (WSJ)

A renewed wave of unrest is spreading across Iran, with university students staging antigovernment rallies and families turning mourning ceremonies into acts of protest. The anger follows a bloody crackdown on demonstrations that began in late December, during which thousands were killed and tens of thousands arrested. Despite repression, students at major universities in Tehran have chanted against the Islamic Republic and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with some protests leading to clashes with security forces.

Public dissent has also taken new forms. Nightly rooftop chants of “Death to Khamenei,” politically charged 40-day mourning ceremonies for slain protesters, and school strikes labeled “Empty Desks” have become symbols of resistance. The unrest is unfolding amid rising tensions with the United States over Iran’s nuclear program, adding further strain to an already volatile political environment.

14. The U.S. Military Hardware Pouring Into the Middle East (WSJ)

The U.S. has deployed a major buildup of air and naval forces across the Middle East, positioning dozens of advanced fighters, support aircraft, and warships within range of Iran should President Trump order a strike. Stealth F-22s and F-35s, along with F-15s, F-16s, electronic-warfare planes, and long-range bombers, are staged at bases including Jordan and Saudi Arabia, though Gulf states have restricted use of their airspace for strikes on Iran. The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group is already in the region, with a second carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, en route, alongside destroyers capable of launching missile defenses and Tomahawk strikes.

The buildup also includes submarines, aerial refueling tankers, early-warning aircraft, heavy cargo planes, and missile-defense systems such as THAAD and Patriot batteries to protect U.S. assets and allies. While smaller than the 1991 Gulf War deployment, it represents the largest concentration of U.S. airpower in the region since the 2003 Iraq invasion, signaling significant readiness amid heightened tensions with Iran.

15. The U.S. Is Hunting the Shadow Fleet. This Is What It’s Up Against. (WSJ)

A vast “shadow fleet” of roughly 1,300 sanctioned tankers is transporting Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan oil across global markets, often to buyers in Asia. These aging vessels, frequently sailing without Western insurance and under false flags, now account for an estimated 6–7% of global crude flows. Russia relies on them for about 80% of its seaborne oil exports. Western sanctions and recent seizures—stretching from the Atlantic to the Indian Ocean—have increased costs and risks for operators, leaving an estimated 300 million barrels of Russian and Iranian oil at sea as traders struggle to find buyers amid mounting restrictions.

Operators use increasingly elaborate deception tactics to evade enforcement. Ships disable or spoof their Automatic Identification System (AIS) signals, conduct mid-ocean ship-to-ship transfers to obscure cargo origins, make “dark-port” calls without transmitting locations, repaint names and flags mid-voyage, and operate through shell companies that mask true ownership. Despite tougher enforcement, fully dismantling the network would be difficult: Russia and Iran together produce more than 11% of global oil, and removing their supply from markets could drive up crude prices and inflation.

NOTE: Article has many other great infographics.

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1. Spotlighting The World Factbook as We Bid a Fond Farewell

The CIA has retired The World Factbook, one of its oldest and most widely recognized intelligence publications. Originally launched in 1962 as a classified document called The National Basic Intelligence Factbook, it later gained an unclassified companion in 1971, was renamed The World Factbook in the early 1980s, and went fully digital in 1997 on CIA.gov. Over time, it evolved from a print intelligence reference into a globally accessible online resource, expanding its categories and coverage of countries and entities worldwide. The Factbook became a popular reference for researchers, journalists, educators, students, and travelers, and featured more than 5,000 copyright-free photographs, many contributed by CIA officers. Although it has now been discontinued, the publication leaves behind a legacy of accessible global information and public curiosity about world affairs.

Economy

2. This Is Why It’s So Hard to Find a Job Right Now

U.S. hiring has slowed sharply due to a mix of factors, including tariff uncertainty, high interest rates, post-pandemic overstaffing in tech, and a drop in worker mobility. With fewer employees quitting—3.2 million in December compared with 4.5 million at the 2022 peak—employers have less need for replacement hiring. The hires rate has fallen to 3.3%, well below pre-pandemic levels, even as unemployment remains relatively low at 4.4%.

Immigration restrictions and an aging population have further reduced labor-force growth, lowering the number of jobs the economy needs to add each month to keep unemployment stable. Economists estimate that required monthly job growth has fallen dramatically, potentially to as low as 15,000 jobs. While artificial intelligence may be dampening hiring in certain fields, particularly tech and entry-level roles, its aggregate impact remains limited so far. Overall, muted hiring reflects a cautious business environment and slower labor-force expansion rather than widespread layoffs or recession-level weakness.

And separately, from Sherwood:

3. Job Cuts Surge in January; Highest January Total Since 2009. Lowest January Hirking on Record

U.S. employers announced 108,435 job cuts in January, up 118% from a year earlier and 205% from December, marking the highest January total since 2009. The largest reductions came from transportation (31,243 cuts, largely from UPS), technology (22,291, including 16,000 from Amazon), and healthcare (17,107, amid inflation and lower reimbursements). Chemical manufacturing also saw notable layoffs tied partly to automation and AI. Companies cited contract losses, economic conditions, restructuring, and closures as the primary reasons, while AI accounted for 7% of January cuts.

Hiring plans were weak, with just 5,306 announced—the lowest January total since tracking began in 2009 and nearly half December’s level. While executives increasingly reference AI in restructuring decisions, broader economic uncertainty and cost pressures appear to be the dominant drivers behind the surge in layoffs and muted hiring outlook.

4. The Federal Government Booked a $1.8 Trillion Deficit Last Year

The federal deficit remained historically high in 2025 at $1.8 trillion—about 6% of GDP—even amid economic expansion and low unemployment. Federal revenue rose to $5.2 trillion, largely from higher income and payroll taxes and $118 billion in tariff revenue, but spending climbed to $7.01 trillion, driven primarily by increased costs for Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security. The national debt reached $37.9 trillion, nearly 100% of GDP, a level previously exceeded only during World War II and the COVID-19 pandemic. Economists warn that sustained deficits at this level risk higher inflation, rising interest costs, slower growth, and reduced capacity to respond to future crises.

Despite aggressive rhetoric about cutting government, legislative actions have not meaningfully reduced spending. Trump’s major tax-and-spending package is projected to add trillions to future deficits, and continuing resolutions have largely preserved prior spending levels. Efforts such as workforce reductions and rescissions have produced limited savings, while entitlement programs and rising interest payments remain the primary drivers of long-term deficits. Without structural reforms to Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, deficit growth is expected to continue regardless of executive actions.

5. How a $30 Billion Welfare Program Became a ‘Slush Fund’ for States

The Trump administration moved to freeze billions in federal welfare funds over fraud concerns, targeting several Democratic-led states, but longstanding problems with the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program span both red and blue states. TANF, a $30 billion block-grant program created in 1996, gives states wide flexibility and limited reporting requirements. Audits across at least 37 states have identified serious oversight deficiencies, including inaccurate reporting, weak documentation, and millions distributed to contractors without clear tracking. Funds have supported initiatives only loosely tied—or unrelated—to TANF’s core goals, such as college scholarships benefiting middle- and upper-income families, antiabortion centers, foster-care programs already funded elsewhere, and in one case, fraudulent spending that led to criminal convictions.

Critics across the political spectrum argue that lax federal oversight and vague statutory rules have allowed TANF funds to function as a budgetary “slush fund,” with only about 20% of impoverished families now receiving direct cash assistance. In 2010, 1.9 million families received direct cash aid; in 2025, that number was down to 849,000. Despite repeated recommendations from the Government Accountability Office to tighten reporting requirements and improve auditing, Congress has not enacted reforms. The administration’s recent funding freeze prompted lawsuits and a temporary court block, while broader legislative efforts have focused on other welfare programs without addressing TANF’s structural weaknesses. Economists and policy analysts warn that without clearer federal standards and accountability measures, misuse and mission drift will likely persist.

Business

6. VCs Are Throwing Money At Recent College Grads To Build Prediction Markets

Prediction markets have surged in popularity, drawing $3.7 billion in new funding in 2025 and handling more than $40 billion in wagers on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. January alone saw over $10 billion in trading volume. Major investors have pushed valuations to $11 billion and $9 billion respectively, minting young billionaire founders and signaling strong regulatory and political tailwinds. Venture capital firms describe the sector as one of the hottest areas for new founders.

A new wave of startups is expanding beyond simple yes/no contracts into attention markets, long/short-style positions on trends, AI-related hedging products, analytics platforms, and trading terminals built on top of existing exchanges. Some promote prediction markets as insurance-like tools or as benchmarking systems for AI models. Despite rapid growth, profitability remains unproven and concerns persist about manipulation, consumer protections, and the blurred boundary between gambling and finance—yet investor enthusiasm continues to accelerate.

NOTE: You can bet (or start a betting market) on just about anything in Polymarket—from the fed interest rate decision, to sports, to Epstein Island. In the screenshot below there is currently around $200M worth of bets being made on Polymarket…and that’s only 12 markets. I’m guessing there are hundreds of markets.

7. The Wild Markets Behind Polymarket’s ‘Truth Machine’

FBI agents raided Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan’s Manhattan apartment on Nov. 13, 2024, as federal prosecutors investigated whether the crypto-based prediction market was violating anti–money-laundering laws and serving U.S. users in breach of a prior CFTC settlement. Fourteen months later, the investigation was dropped, Polymarket gained powerful backers and mainstream partnerships, and it was cleared to launch a regulated U.S. betting app—helping propel the company to a $9 billion valuation and making Coplan a billionaire.

Polymarket is both a fast-rising “truth machine” and a controversy magnet. Its contracts—priced to imply probabilities—are increasingly cited by media and integrated via partnerships with major platforms, yet much of its core international product remains lightly regulated and largely anonymous, with limited identity checks. That anonymity, along with research alleging signs of wash trading and repeated episodes of suspicious or disputed market resolutions (war-related outcomes, Maduro’s ouster, a Nobel-related wager, and ambiguous bet-settlement calls), fuels concerns about manipulation and insider trading. Polymarket says it complies with applicable laws, bans wash trading, and argues that transparency and social scrutiny make misconduct easier to spot.

The political and regulatory context: Polymarket paid a fine in 2022 and barred U.S. users from its offshore platform, but Americans reportedly continued using it via VPNs and crypto deposits. In 2024, as election betting surged, the company found a warmer reception among Republicans and crypto-friendly investors; 1789 Capital invested, Donald Trump Jr. later became an adviser, and enforcement priorities shifted after Trump took office toward fraud and serious criminal financing. After extensive lobbying and document submissions by Polymarket’s lawyers, prosecutors notified the company on July 1 that the probe was being shelved, closing a dramatic arc from raid to legitimacy and rapid growth.

8. America Is Slow-Walking Into a Polymarket Disaster

Prediction markets—platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket—are rapidly moving from internet subculture into mainstream news. Odds generated by online betting are now being cited on CNN, integrated into coverage by Dow Jones outlets, and even displayed during events like the Golden Globes. The premise is simple: people who wager real money supposedly reveal truer beliefs about future events than polls or pundits. As a result, probabilities about elections, geopolitics, interest rates, and even celebrity outcomes are increasingly framed as news.

The concern is that this “financialization of everything” turns journalism into a form of gambling commentary, with serious consequences. Prediction markets are easily manipulated, opaque, and not consistently more accurate than chance—especially for complex political outcomes. Large bets can distort odds and, once amplified by media coverage, shape public perception or even real-world behavior. Unlike polls, these markets allow wealthy or motivated actors to buy influence directly. By normalizing odds as insight, news organizations risk confusing speculation with knowledge, eroding trust, and encouraging a worldview where every event—from wars to press briefings—is something to bet on rather than understand.

9. Apple is the only Big Tech company whose capex declined last quarter

Big Tech companies are dramatically increasing capital expenditures to build AI infrastructure, with Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft spending record amounts on chips and data centers. Their 2026 projections far exceed expectations: Amazon plans up to $200 billion, Google $175–185 billion, and Meta $115–135 billion, while Microsoft is also expected to spend well above prior forecasts. These massive outlays have weighed on stock performance as investors weigh the risks of heavy upfront investment in uncertain AI returns.

Apple stands apart, with capital spending declining year over year and remaining far below peers. Rather than building massive in-house AI infrastructure, Apple is pursuing a hybrid strategy that relies partly on third-party providers, including a reported $1 billion-per-year deal to use Google’s Gemini for Siri and Apple Intelligence. This approach limits capital risk and keeps spending off its balance sheet, but it also means Apple won’t fully control foundational AI technology if it proves transformative.

Speaking of AI…

Artificial Intelligence

10. Tom Cruise fights Brad Pitt

NOTE: Filmmaker Ruairi Robinson used AI to create a movie-quality fight scene between Brad Pitt and Tom Cruise. It’s made the rounds in social media with many prominent Hollywood folks expressing their concerns.

It’s not just movies. If you seen some of the previous posts I’ve shared, you know AI can generate music as well. I think the videos below do a good job of showing what’s possible with AI and music (good and bad):

Soul/R&B:

Country:

As Rick Beato points out, the good news, for now, is the actual “top songs” are still being sung by humans.

PREDICTION 1: Within five years, you will sit at home on a Friday night and ask AI to make a movie for you based on genre, actors/characters, setting, and length and it will churn out a Hollywood-level flick for you.

From songs to movies to video games, you’ll create all your own entertainment:

11. Google’s Project Genie lets you create your own 3D interactive worlds

Google DeepMind has opened access to Genie 3—a “world model” that generates interactive environments—to the public via Project Genie. Previously framed as a tool for training AI agents, Genie 3 now lets users explore, remix, or sketch AI-generated worlds, choosing perspectives (first-, third-person, or isometric), characters, and movement styles. Access is limited to U.S. users 18+ on Google’s $250/month AI Ultra plan, with Nano Banana Pro producing an editable preview before exploration.

The experience isn’t a full game engine: interactions are game-like but lack traditional mechanics, sessions are capped at 60 seconds, and visuals top out at 720p/24 fps. Even with those constraints, Project Genie offers a rare hands-on look at cutting-edge world-model tech and how DeepMind envisions interactive simulation beyond games.

Link: https://labs.google/projectgenie

PREDICTION 2: Like most things, we as humans will overdo this. At first, it’ll be fun. People will share prompts that they used to create unique and Oscar-worthy films. Infinite movie mashups will be possible and we will create and watch as many of them as we can. It’ll be like eating calorie-free desserts at every meal—desserts that are delicious and have no effect on our waistline or sugar levels.

PREDICTION 3: If you eat dessert at every meal, you soon get tired of dessert. Eventually, every type of film that can be created will and we’ll get tired of it all. We’ll seek out in-person performances where we watch real-people act or sing or dance. It’ll be a breath of fresh air and feel human.

12. Frequent Use of AI in the Workplace Continued to Rise in Q4

Workplace AI use in the U.S. continued its gradual climb in late 2025, driven more by deeper use among existing users than by new adopters. Daily AI use rose from 10% to 12% in Q4, and frequent use (a few times a week or more) increased to 26%. However, overall adoption stalled: nearly half of U.S. workers still say they never use AI at work, and the share of total users (those using AI at least a few times a year) was flat after earlier rapid gains.

Adoption remains highly uneven. Knowledge-based industries lead by a wide margin, with technology, finance, higher education, and professional services showing the highest use, while retail, manufacturing, healthcare, government, and social services lag far behind. Roles that are remote-capable account for most of the growth, with two-thirds of those workers now using AI, compared with about one-third in non-remote-capable jobs. Leaders also use AI far more than managers or individual contributors, and the gap is widening. According to Gallup, this pattern helps explain why overall adoption appears to be slowing: AI is becoming more embedded among certain industries, roles, and leaders, even as many workers see little relevance or clear use for it in their jobs.

13. OpenAI Plans Fourth-Quarter IPO in Race to Beat Anthropic to Market

The piece highlights the staggering scale and risk of today’s AI arms race. Both OpenAI and Anthropic are burning billions of dollars annually to train new models and operate existing products, with profitability still years away. Anthropic projects it will break even in 2028—earlier than OpenAI—but only after massive capital infusions, including a recent $10 billion raise. The article also touches on CEO concerns about which sectors face the greatest AI-driven job disruption and how seriously companies are taking safety as systems grow more powerful.

At the same time, OpenAI is pursuing what could be one of the largest fundraising efforts in tech history. The company is seeking more than $100 billion in a pre-IPO-style round that would value it around $830 billion. SoftBank is in talks to invest roughly $30 billion, while Amazon has discussed putting in up to $50 billion, with CEO Andy Jassy personally involved in negotiations with Sam Altman. Together, the moves underscore both the enormous financial demands of frontier AI and investors’ belief that a few dominant players could reshape entire industries despite years of losses.

14. The AI frenzy is creating a big problem for consumer electronics

AI enthusiasm is colliding with a hard constraint: memory chips. As demand for AI systems explodes—especially data centers using high-bandwidth memory (HBM)—chipmakers are diverting production away from the standard DRAM used in phones, PCs, cars, and consoles. The result is a severe supply crunch. Prices for consumer DRAM (notably DDR4) have surged dramatically, prompting warnings of higher gadget prices, delayed launches, and falling shipment volumes for smartphones and PCs. While memory is a cyclical industry, this shortage may last longer because AI is structurally reshaping how chips are made, priced, and allocated.

The squeeze is intensified by concentration and incentives. Three firms—SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron—control over 90% of DRAM revenue and are rapidly shifting capacity to HBM, which is far more profitable but also far more resource-intensive to produce. HBM is expected to generate half of all DRAM revenue by the end of the decade, up from just 8% in 2023. That leaves less supply of basic memory, which makes up a large share of device costs. Big players like Apple and Samsung can better absorb or offset the shock, but others—PC makers, smartphone brands, and especially carmakers—face margin pressure and price hikes. Even planned increases in chip investment will take years to translate into new supply, meaning consumers are likely to feel the effects for some time unless the AI boom itself cools.

Health

15. Older Americans are spending more time on their phones than younger cohorts, per new data

Concerns about young people’s dependence on new technology have surfaced throughout history, from novels to radio to smartphones. However, recent data suggest younger Americans may no longer be the heaviest phone users. According to Apptopia, 17- to 25-year-olds now spend slightly less time on their phones—about 350 minutes per day—than adults aged 36 and over, who average 352 minutes. This shift has persisted since late 2024 and may reflect younger users intentionally disengaging from technology, while older adults increasingly use companion apps and digital services.

Overall phone use continues to rise across all age groups. The average American now spends 6.3 hours per day on their phone, up from 5.5 hours at the start of 2023. While usage patterns are evolving—such as more video consumption and fewer gaming apps—the total time spent on mobile devices keeps climbing regardless of age.

NOTE: In a previous post, I shared the article, More Americans are living alone than ever before, which discussed a minimalist Chinese app called Sile Me (“Are You Dead?”). The app simply requires users to press a button every two days to confirm they are alive or else alert an emergency contact, has become the top paid app in China’s iPhone App Store. A reader of my newsletter pointed out another app here in the US called, Carely, that is very similar.

This confluence of increased phone use, increased personalized AI use, and increased isolation is going to continue to impact our society in ways that are not healthy.

Entertainment

16. “Bluey” is America’s most streamed show for the second year in a row

Bluey dominated U.S. streaming for a second consecutive year, logging 45.2 billion minutes watched in 2025—more than any other show and well ahead of runners-up like Grey’s Anatomy and Stranger Things. With 154 short episodes, Bluey averaged about 294 million minutes per episode, underscoring how repeatable, bite-size content can generate enormous cumulative viewing. Overall U.S. streaming hit a record 16.7 trillion minutes in 2025, up 19% from the year before.

The rankings highlight a structural advantage for long-running shows with deep catalogs: nine of the ten most-watched series were established titles rather than new originals. Limited or short-run series struggle to compete on total minutes, regardless of buzz. Bluey’s cross-generational appeal and 10-minute episode format fit modern viewing habits—often casual or background watching—helping explain why a preschool cartoon now outpaces prestige dramas and blockbuster originals in sheer time spent watching.

For Fun

17. Accidentally Wes Anderson

Wes Anderson is an American filmmaker known for distinct visual style—symmetry and centered framing, distinct color palettes and lateral tracking. This website is a collection of pictures from around the world that mimic that Anderson style. It’s a fun site.

18. The Who - full live from Smothers Brothers Comedy Hour 1967

NOTE: Back in 1967, the band The Who performed on the Smothers Brothers Comedy Hour. At the end of their bit, as planned, they go around smashing their instruments and blow up the drum set. Unfortunately, the base drum was accidentally loaded with three times the amount of explosives expected. You can read more about it here. On the whole, the entire Wikipedia on the Smothers Brothers is worth reading.

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CRITICAL THINKING

NOTE: As the internet and AI expand, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to parse valid information and research from the phony stuff. It’s tempting to want to throw it all out and ignore everything coming at you, especially when the noise is louder than the signal itself.

These days, I am slower to react to the news of the day, preferring to wait until I have more details and a better understanding of the issue before forming an opinion, and definitely before responding emotionally.

Below are two more reasons to be cautious in how you respond to headlines and studies.

1. Relax, Microplastics Aren’t Killing You (FP)

While recent, highly publicized studies claimed alarming levels of plastic in the human brain, those findings have since been challenged, with critics showing the detection method likely confused plastic with ordinary fat molecules. As a result, the most dramatic health claims have been walked back, highlighting how shaky or overstated science can undermine public trust.

NOTE: Don’t get me wrong, I think any amount of plastic in my body is bad and I’m all for reducing/eliminating how much I ingest…it’s just a shame that such a newsworthy study had flaws that undermined it.

2. Named: 50 ‘experts’ and linked brands publishers should treat with caution (Press Gazette)

Press Gazette has published a “PR Hall of Shame” exposing more than 50 apparently fake experts who have appeared over 1,000 times across British newspapers, magazines, and online outlets. The investigation focuses on cases where the experts appear not to exist at all, often using AI-generated images and bios, and highlights how journalists are being flooded with dubious, AI-written press releases from organizations that evade follow-up.

The practice is largely driven by SEO schemes, where fabricated experts and case studies are used to secure valuable backlinks from reputable media. Some operations have run for years and at scale, involving networks of companies and PR agencies and leading to widespread publication of misleading content. Press Gazette warns this trend is accelerating with advances in AI, undermining media credibility, and is urging journalists and PR professionals to report suspected fake experts to help curb the problem.

NOTE: As an aside, if I had a dollar for every suspicious LinkedIn invite I’ve received, I’d at least have $100. I can tell because they have phony looking, or AI-generated, photos and nebulous backgrounds. These days, unless someone sends me a specific message telling me why they want to connect to me, or I know them directly, I don’t accept generic LinkedIn friend requests. Call me snobbish. I just prefer more meaningful connections. (Ironically, if you read farther down you’ll see how LinkedIn is now becoming a hub for dating.)

DEFENSE

3. US military to expand by more than 30,000 troops this year (Military Times)

Congress has approved and funded increases to the size of the U.S. armed forces in fiscal 2026, expanding active-duty end strength by more than 30,000 troops—the largest authorized force since 2023. The Army and Navy will see the biggest gains, while the Air Force, Space Force, and Coast Guard will also grow. The Marine Corps will remain flat. Overall active-duty strength will exceed 1.3 million, with total forces, including reserves and the National Guard, approaching 2.1 million.

4. Donald Trump’s Venezuela oil deal is already up and running (Economist)

In early January, the U.S. dramatically reshaped relations with Venezuela after American forces captured Nicolás Maduro and the Trump administration moved quickly toward a negotiated oil arrangement with the regime’s new leadership under Delcy Rodríguez. The deal would allow the U.S. and licensed firms like Chevron, Vitol, and Trafigura to purchase and market up to 30–50 million barrels of Venezuelan crude, relieving Venezuela’s storage glut and preventing a shutdown of oil production. Payments would flow through escrow accounts under U.S. oversight, with limited funds reaching the Venezuelan state and strict controls on spending.

For the United States, the arrangement offers another source of heavy crude and commercial opportunities for oil firms, though it is not transformative. For Venezuela, it promises desperately needed dollar inflows, higher oil prices than under sanctions-era shadow trading, and relief from an impending currency crisis. At the same time, Washington retains leverage through sanctions, pricing power, and control over investment and spending.

5. Germany’s Military Recruitment Drive Has a Gen Z Problem (WSJ)

As Europe accelerates rearmament in response to the threat from Russia, Germany is struggling to recruit enough young people for military service. Resistance is driven less by pacifism than by economic resentment: many young Germans question why they should sacrifice for a state they feel prioritizes pensions for older generations while offering them limited economic security. Protests against Germany’s new voluntary military service, which includes mandatory questionnaires for young men, reflect frustrations over high living costs, weak job prospects, and lingering fatigue from pandemic-era sacrifices.

Despite broad public support for the military and defense spending, willingness to personally serve is at a record low. Recruitment gains from marketing campaigns have not offset retirements, leaving Germany far short of its troop targets. The government has raised pay and added incentives, but critics argue only a return to mandatory conscription would meet staffing needs. The debate highlights a growing generational divide over obligation, economic fairness, and what young people feel they receive in return for defending the state.

6. What Xi Jinping’s purge of China’s most senior general reveals (Economist)

China’s sweeping military purges have reached their most dramatic point with the investigation of General Zhang Youxia, the country’s most senior uniformed officer and a longtime confidant of Xi Jinping. Zhang and another top commander, Liu Zhenli, were placed under investigation for serious discipline and legal violations, effectively hollowing out the Central Military Commission and leaving Xi as the dominant figure in military leadership. The move marks the largest shake-up of China’s armed forces since Mao’s era and underscores the depth of corruption and factional struggle within the PLA.

The purge may reflect Xi’s frustration with stalled reforms, lingering corruption—particularly in weapons procurement—and concerns that Zhang’s growing power posed a political risk despite their close ties. While Xi aims to build a modern, combat-ready military capable of taking Taiwan, the repeated removal of senior leaders has created instability and leadership gaps. Western assessments warn the upheaval could hurt short-term readiness, even as Xi appears to bet that rooting out corruption will ultimately strengthen the PLA.

EDUCATION & JOBS

7. How the U.S. Is Tightening the Reins on Federal Student Loans (WSJ)

With U.S. student loan debt at a record $1.7 trillion, the federal government is moving to tighten borrowing and increase accountability in higher education. The Trump administration plans to cap graduate student loans starting in July 2026, limit lifetime borrowing, and restrict how much parents can borrow, while also redefining which fields qualify as professional degrees. At the same time, new rules will tie schools’ access to federal loans to whether graduates meet earnings benchmarks, reflecting bipartisan frustration over rising debt and doubts about the value of some degrees.

8. Nurses are still America’s most trusted workers (Sherwood)

Gallup’s 2025 Ethics Ratings of American Professions show that nurses remain the most trusted occupation in the U.S., a position they have held almost continuously since 1999, with firefighters briefly taking the top spot in 2001. Only four professions—including nurses, other healthcare workers, and military veterans—received majority positive ratings, while telemarketers and members of Congress were again viewed by most Americans as having low ethical standards. Finance- and business-related roles continued to rank poorly, with several hitting record-low trust levels.

Despite nurses’ continued lead, public trust in healthcare professionals has declined sharply since the pandemic. Positive ratings for nurses are down 14 points from their peak, while doctors and pharmacists have fallen 20 and 18 points, respectively. Overall, Gallup found that trust across major professions has eroded, with the average positive rating reaching a historic low, signaling a broad decline in confidence in professional ethics.

9. Why people are flirting on LinkedIn — and job hunting on Tinder (Sherwood)

The internet makes it easy to find information, but work and love still depend largely on matchmaking rather than instruction, and the platforms built for each are increasingly overlapping. LinkedIn has become a massive global professional hub, while dating apps remain major revenue generators, yet search trends show rising interest in using LinkedIn for dating and dating apps for work. Surveys suggest this crossover is real: more than half of young adults report having gone on a date via networking platforms, while many LinkedIn users—especially women—report receiving unwanted romantic advances.

Burnout and distrust on dating apps, where users frequently encounter ghosting or dishonesty, appear to be pushing some people toward LinkedIn, which offers more verifiable personal information. At the same time, a tightening job market has driven users to repurpose dating apps for professional networking. Large shares of Tinder, Bumble, and Hinge users say they’ve used the platforms to expand their careers, reflecting how economic pressure and platform fatigue are blurring the boundaries between professional networking and romantic matchmaking.

ECONOMY & HOUSING

10. Share of U.S. consumer spending, by income group (Axios)

U.S. economic growth is increasingly reliant on spending by wealthy households, making the system more fragile. The top 20% of income earners now account for 59% of all consumer spending—a near record—while the bottom 80% contribute a record-low 41%, reflecting a widening “K-shaped” divide where higher earners continue to pull ahead as everyone else treads water.

With inflation and a weak job market constraining most households, spending growth is being sustained largely by affluent consumers benefiting from stock-market gains and rising wealth concentration. Economists warn that this leaves the economy vulnerable: a market downturn that hits the rich could quickly tip the U.S. into recession, worsening job losses for lower-income workers and deepening social and political tensions.

11. Home Sellers Outnumber Buyers By a Record Margin, Upping Buyers’ Bargaining Power (Redfin)

The U.S. housing market has shifted sharply in buyers’ favor, with sellers outnumbering buyers by 47.1% in December—the largest imbalance since records began in 2013. This gap is being driven primarily by a steep drop in buyers, whose numbers fell to a record low amid high mortgage rates, elevated home prices, and economic uncertainty. While sellers have also pulled back, they have done so more slowly, leaving buyers with greater negotiating power in many markets.

Buyer’s markets are most pronounced in the Sun Belt, especially in cities like Austin, Dallas, San Antonio, and parts of Florida, where heavy homebuilding during the pandemic has created excess supply. In contrast, parts of the Northeast and Midwest remain seller’s markets due to tighter supply. As a result, home prices are barely rising nationally and are falling in some oversupplied metros, underscoring how shifts in supply and demand are reshaping regional housing conditions.

12. Homebuyers Are Canceling Deals at the Highest Rate on Record (Redfin)

Home-purchase cancellations hit a record high in December, with about 16.3% of U.S. homes under contract falling through—the highest December rate since records began in 2017. Buyers are increasingly backing out as high home prices, affordability concerns, and a growing supply of listings give them more leverage and more alternatives. Inspection contingencies are often the trigger, though underlying cost pressures frequently drive the decision.

Cancellations were most common in fast-cooling Sun Belt markets such as Atlanta, Jacksonville, San Antonio, and Tampa, where sellers now far outnumber buyers. In contrast, cancellations remained relatively rare in tighter markets like Nassau County, NY, and parts of the Bay Area, despite some year-over-year increases there. Overall, the trend reflects a shift toward buyer-friendly conditions as demand softens and affordability slowly begins to improve.

13. To Make Homes Affordable Again, Someone Has to Lose Out (WSJ)

U.S. housing policy is trapped between conflicting interests: renters want prices to fall so they can buy homes, while existing homeowners and builders want values to stay high. The Trump administration has floated headline-grabbing ideas—such as 50-year mortgages, lower borrowing costs, restricting institutional investors, and allowing 401(k) withdrawals for down payments—but these measures mostly boost buyers’ purchasing power without addressing the underlying housing shortage and could even push prices higher.

Analyses suggest that restoring 2019-era affordability would require one of three difficult outcomes: a massive rise in household incomes, a return to ultra-low mortgage rates, or a 35% drop in home prices. Policymakers are reluctant to pursue solutions that would significantly lower prices, given the $34 trillion in housing equity held by homeowners and the risk to economic growth. With supply constrained by local zoning rules and political resistance to falling home values, meaningful reform remains elusive, leaving housing affordability a largely zero-sum problem.

BUSINESS

14. The Big Five US Trade Book Publishers

NOTE: The image below is only a snippet of a very large image on this website showing just how much consolidation there is in the publishing industry. Quite amazing.

15. Amazon Joins the Big-Box League With Its Largest-Ever Store (WSJ)

Amazon is planning its largest-ever physical retail store, a roughly 230,000-square-foot big-box location in the Chicago suburb of Orland Park, Illinois—larger than an average Walmart. About half the space will function as a traditional store selling groceries and household goods, while the other half will be dedicated to fulfilling online and in-store orders, keeping digital operations separate from in-person shopping. The concept blends kiosks, digital ordering, curbside pickup, and back-of-house fulfillment, reflecting Amazon’s effort to merge e-commerce efficiency with physical retail convenience.

The move marks Amazon’s most ambitious attempt yet to crack brick-and-mortar retail after years of mixed results, including store closures and scaled-back experiments like Amazon Go. While in-store purchases still account for most U.S. retail spending, Amazon faces stiff competition from entrenched big-box rivals like Walmart, Costco, and Target. Analysts say success will depend on whether Amazon can leverage its Prime data and logistics strengths to offer a compelling reason for shoppers to change long-standing habits in an already crowded market.

TECHNOLOGY & AI

NOTE: I missed this when it came out last year:

16. WiFi routers now tracking motion: Xfinity’s new feature sparks privacy concerns (Cyber News)

Xfinity has introduced WiFi Motion, a free feature that turns up to three WiFi-connected household devices into motion sensors by detecting disruptions in WiFi signals between them. Designed as a basic home-awareness tool rather than a professional security system, it can sense movement across rooms and floors, send push alerts, and allows users to adjust sensitivity and notification schedules, though it does not pinpoint exact locations and does not work with phones, tablets, or WiFi extenders.

The feature has sparked privacy concerns, as Xfinity’s policy allows collection of motion data and its potential disclosure to third parties, including law enforcement, under certain circumstances. Critics worry this could enable ISPs to infer household activity, while others note that similar inferences are already possible through internet traffic analysis. The debate has prompted renewed calls for stronger privacy protections, skepticism of ISP-provided hardware, and suggestions such as using personal routers or VPNs to limit data exposure.

NOTE: Just a reminder, like the streaming services that lured us all in with cheap prices early on, the price we pay for AI is only going to go up…after all, someone has to pay for all the data centers, computer chips, and energy use.

17. OpenAI to Begin Testing Ads in ChatGPT in Push for Fresh Revenue (WSJ)

OpenAI plans to begin testing ads in ChatGPT, marking a significant shift in its business model as it looks to boost revenue to support rapid growth and massive future computing costs. Ads will appear only in the free version and the lowest-priced subscription tier, ChatGPT Go, shown at the bottom of responses and clearly labeled, while higher-tier subscribers will remain ad-free.

Despite past concerns from CEO Sam Altman that advertising could undermine trust, OpenAI says ads will not influence answers, user conversations won’t be sold, and sensitive topics such as politics and mental health will be excluded. Users can opt out of ad personalization, and minors won’t see ads. Led by Fidji Simo, the effort reflects pressure from growing competition and aims to balance monetization with user trust, with OpenAI pledging to adjust the approach based on feedback.

18. ChatGPT apps are about to be the next big distribution channel: Here’s how to build one

ChatGPT is evolving from a text-based assistant into a transactional platform by embedding interactive widgets from third-party apps directly into conversations, allowing users to browse, compare, and complete tasks—such as booking flights—without leaving the chat. Launched at Dev Day, this “ChatGPT apps” ecosystem already includes major partners like Expedia, Canva, DoorDash, and Spotify, and represents a major new distribution channel comparable to the App Store or early SEO. Apps can surface contextually based on user intent, meaning users don’t search for apps; ChatGPT suggests them automatically. Apps can appear inline, fullscreen, or picture-in-picture, and ChatGPT controls when tools are invoked and how users move through tasks. For builders, this creates a low-barrier opportunity to reach massive audiences, from large enterprises to solo developers, as chat becomes a primary interface for discovering and using digital services.

19. There are now more than 1 million “.ai” websites, contributing an estimated $70 million to Anguilla’s government revenue last year (Sherwood)

Anguilla has become an unexpected winner of the AI boom thanks to its control of the “.ai” internet domain. Since ChatGPT’s launch, demand for AI-branded domains has surged, turning domain registrations into a major revenue source for the small Caribbean territory. In 2023, “.ai” domains generated about $32 million—over a fifth of government revenue—and registrations have since topped one million, pushing annual income far higher.

By 2026, Anguilla expects nearly $100 million in revenue from domain-related sales, largely driven by renewals and high-priced auctions of expired names. With standard fees providing steady income and premium domains selling for hundreds of thousands of dollars, the island has effectively stumbled into a digital windfall fueled by the global AI gold rush.

LIFE

20. Millennials spend more time than past generations with their children (Economist)

Americans are having fewer children, with the fertility rate falling to 1.6 births per woman in 2024, but parents are spending more time with their children than ever before. Over the past several decades, time devoted to child care has steadily increased across generations, with especially large gains among fathers. Compared with earlier cohorts, millennial parents—particularly dads—spend significantly more time caring for their children, continuing a long-term shift toward more hands-on parenting.

21. Humanity will shrink, far sooner than you think (Economist)

Fertility rates are falling faster and further than demographers expected across much of the world. Turkey’s birth rate has dropped to 1.48 children per woman, well below replacement level, and similar or lower rates are now common across Asia, Latin America, Europe, and even parts of Africa. Countries from Colombia and India to China and South Korea are seeing rapid declines, with some reaching historically unprecedented lows. As a result, only about one-third of the global population lives in countries with fertility high enough to sustain population growth.

What is most striking is the acceleration of this trend, which is outpacing official projections that assume fertility will soon stabilize or rebound. Many experts now doubt those assumptions, arguing there is little evidence that low fertility is self-correcting. If current declines persist even briefly, the world’s population could peak much earlier and at a much lower level than expected—possibly in the 2050s below 9 billion—triggering profound economic, social, and geopolitical consequences as humanity enters a period of long-term population decline.

22. More Americans are living alone than ever before

A minimalist Chinese app called Sile Me (“Are You Dead?”), which simply requires users to press a button every two days to confirm they are alive or else alert an emergency contact, has become the top paid app in China’s iPhone App Store. Its popularity highlights the rapid growth of people living alone in China, where one-person households could reach 200 million by 2030, driven by both an aging population and younger adults choosing solo living.

The trend is global. In the United States, nearly 40 million households—about 29% of the total—now consist of just one person, a record high that continues to climb. Similar increases have occurred across most wealthy countries, fueled by declining marriage rates, changing social norms, rising incomes, and the expansion of older age groups most likely to live alone.

NATURE

23. Enormous freshwater reservoir discovered off the East Coast may be 20,000 years old and big enough to supply NYC for 800 years (Live Science)

Scientists have confirmed the existence of a massive freshwater reservoir buried beneath the seafloor off the U.S. East Coast, potentially large enough to supply a city the size of New York for hundreds of years. Stretching from offshore New Jersey to Maine, the reservoir appears to have formed during the last ice age, when glaciers pushed meltwater deep into coastal sediments and trapped it beneath layers of clay and silt. Recent drilling off Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard recovered tens of thousands of liters of water, showing far lower salinity than seawater and suggesting the reservoir is larger than previously believed.

Preliminary analyses indicate the water is primarily glacial in origin, possibly mixed with rainfall, and was emplaced around 20,000 years ago. The freshwater is sealed beneath salty sediment, remaining isolated from the ocean above, though its salinity increases farther offshore. Researchers are now analyzing the samples to better estimate the reservoir’s size, age, and composition, aiming to provide reliable data in case the resource is ever considered for future use.

FOR FUN

24. Washington, DC, looks set to get America’s second Sphere (Sherwood)

Las Vegas’s Sphere has quickly become a major entertainment attraction, driving strong revenue growth through concerts, advertising on its massive LED exterior, and sponsorships. Its success has encouraged Sphere Entertainment to expand, with plans announced for a second U.S. location near Washington, DC, at National Harbor, as well as a smaller 6,000-seat format and an international Sphere planned for Abu Dhabi.

Despite rising revenue, the Sphere remains financially challenging. High-profile performances helped generate $156 million in quarterly revenue, with additional income from exterior advertising and suites, but operating costs still far exceed earnings. As a result, the glowing venue has proven popular and eye-catching, yet remains a costly and unprofitable venture even as the company pushes ahead with expansion.

25. Jumping the Tallest Cliff in the Solar System

The tallest vertical cliff on Earth is Mount Thor in northern Canada, which drops about 4,100 feet in a single sheer face. A fall from the top would last nearly 20 seconds, with a dropped object reaching speeds over 150 miles per hour, making it an extraordinarily dangerous plunge.

An even more extreme cliff exists off Earth on Miranda, a moon of Uranus. Verona Rupes rises roughly six miles (about 33,000 feet), making it far taller than Mount Everest or the Grand Canyon. Because Miranda’s gravity is only a tiny fraction of Earth’s, a fall from this cliff would take about eight minutes, with a maximum speed of around 90 miles per hour, making the descent far slower and potentially survivable with advanced equipment.

BONUS ITEM - Series Graph

NOTE: Hadn’t seen this before—a cool website that shows you the IMDB ratings of TV series episodes in one chart. Example below for The Office.

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East Asia

1. See How a Chinese Attack on Taiwan Would Be Japan’s Problem (WSJ)

Rising tensions over Taiwan highlight how deeply a potential Chinese invasion would affect Japan and the United States, despite Beijing’s insistence that it is a purely internal matter. Taiwan sits astride vital sea lanes linking the East and South China Seas to the Pacific, and its fall would allow China to dominate regional waterways, project power beyond the First Island Chain, and intensify pressure on neighboring states. Strategists warn that such a shift would decisively tilt the Asian balance of power in Beijing’s favor, directly threatening Japan’s security, trade, and territorial claims, particularly around the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands.

Geography and alliance politics bind Japan tightly to any Taiwan conflict. Japanese islands in the Ryukyu chain lie close to Taiwan and would be exposed to blockades or missile strikes, while Japan hosts critical U.S. bases that make it indispensable to any American military response. United States forces would rely heavily on air and naval facilities in Japan to operate effectively; without them, sustaining combat from distant bases like Guam would be far harder. As Japan strengthens defenses on its southwestern islands and both sides deploy longer-range missiles, the risk grows that a Taiwan war would quickly expand—either through Japanese participation or Chinese preemptive strikes—turning a cross-strait crisis into a broader regional conflict.

NOTE: If you want to understand this all better I recommend reading up on Island Chain Strategy and reading the new US National Security Strategy.

Middle East

2. Families, Neighbors Informed on Each Other in Assad’s Syria, With Deadly Consequences (WSJ)

Newly uncovered Syrian military intelligence files shed light on how the Assad regime maintained power through pervasive surveillance, coercion, and forced betrayal, often turning relatives and spouses into informants. One case involves Abdu Kharouf, a moderate imam in Damascus who was lured to a meeting in 2020, secretly detained by intelligence agents, and died in a basement prison run by the regime. Documents show his arrest was triggered by testimony extracted under torture from a distant cousin, illustrating how confessions—often false—were used to justify arrests, disappearances, and killings. Kharouf’s family never recovered his body but says the records finally confirmed he was targeted despite avoiding politics and complying with state demands.

The files, discovered after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in 2024, reveal a vast system of spying that ensnared ordinary citizens, activists, aid workers, diplomats, and even loyalists. Intelligence agencies monitored private conversations, encouraged Syrians to inform on one another, and relied on torture to extract confessions, leaving a legacy of fear and mistrust that persists even after the regime’s collapse. As Syrians begin confronting this history, the documents provide rare evidence of how deeply repression penetrated daily life—and how devastating its human cost was.

Government

3. Litigation Tracker: Legal Challenges to Trump Administration Actions (Just Security)

A living, searchable resource that tracks legal challenges to Trump administrative executive actions.

NOTE: I thought this was an informative tracker. Quick stats: Of the 572 cases tracked, there have been 193 plaintiff wins, 111 government wins, and 227 awaiting a court ruling.

4. A Letter Won’t Always Be Postmarked the Same Day You Drop It in the Mail (WSJ)

The U.S. Postal Service has changed how mail is postmarked. Since Dec. 24, postmarks no longer reflect the day a letter is dropped in a mailbox but instead the day it reaches a processing facility, which could be one or more days later. As a result, mail deposited on a given day may carry a later postmark, potentially causing missed deadlines for items like tax returns, college applications, insurance appeals, checks, and ballots.

Economy

5. U.S. Trade Deficit Unexpectedly Falls to Lowest Level Since 2009 (WSJ)

The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly plunged in October to $29.4 billion—its lowest level since 2009—after imports fell sharply and exports rose, according to the U.S. Commerce Department. Imports declined to $331.4 billion while exports climbed to $302 billion, producing a deficit nearly 40% smaller than September’s and far below forecasts. Much of the swing was driven by narrow factors: a surge in gold and precious-metals exports tied to financial-market activity, and a sharp drop in pharmaceutical imports after Donald Trump threatened steep tariffs on overseas drugs.

6. A Shadow Fleet Smuggles Illicit Oil Across the High Seas. This Is How It Works. (WSJ)

Shadow tankers move sanctioned oil by exploiting weak oversight in global shipping, often using “flags of convenience” from small, non-Western countries that offer low fees, minimal checks, and limited enforcement. These vessels frequently change names, ownership, and registries—often through shell companies in loosely regulated jurisdictions—to evade scrutiny. Many are more than 20 years old, lack reliable insurance after being cut off from Western insurers by sanctions, and pose heightened risks of accidents, environmental damage, and crew mistreatment.

Recent U.S. seizures of oil tankers, including one that claimed Russian protection, show how enforcement has escalated beyond traditional sanctions. With financial penalties proving insufficient, governments are increasingly turning to military and security measures to disrupt the shadow fleet. Ukraine has also targeted sanctioned tankers during its war with Russia, highlighting the limits of sanctions alone and the growing geopolitical and security stakes tied to illicit oil transport.

NOTE: A few years ago I got a license to be a catamaran captain—it was a fun experience, to be sure. Two apps that we used heavily were the following, and I definitely recommend them—they’re great for tracking/viewing ships and weather:

Marine Traffic - Live tracking of ships.

Windfinder - Great visual weather tracker

7. The Middle Class Is Shrinking Because of a Booming Upper-Middle Class (AEI)

Populists on both sides of the aisle worry that the middle class has become an unattainable standard for many American families. AEI researches found that this is due to more families transitioning to the upper-middle class. In 1979, 10 percent of families qualified as upper-middle class, compared with 31 percent in 2024.

Slower growth and rising inequality have created concern that the middle class is no longer economically secure or achievable, but American families in all income brackets have seen significant gains in the past 50 years. Overall economic growth, more professional opportunities for women, and a robust safety net have fostered gains for American families across incomes.

Researcher’s analysis adjusts income for family size, as American family size has declined since 1979, with falling fertility and marriage rates. Mean family size fell from 2.7 to 2.3 from 1979 to 2024. A family of four and a family of two have different qualities of life at the same income, while a larger family can get by with proportionally fewer resources. Accounting for inflation and declining family size, median family income rose 52 percent from 1979 to 2024.

NOTE: Ok, not really related to the broader economy, but I thought this was interesting:

8. America Is Falling Out of Love With Pizza (WSJ)

The U.S. pizza industry is losing momentum after decades of dominance, raising questions about whether America has reached “peak pizza.” Once the second-most common restaurant type, pizzerias are now outnumbered by coffee shops and Mexican eateries, with sales growth trailing the broader fast-food market. Price wars, delivery apps offering more cuisine choices, and weakening value perceptions—$20 pies competing with cheaper fast food, frozen pizza, or home cooking—have all contributed. Several chains have filed for bankruptcy or closed locations, and major players like Pizza Hut and Papa John’s are considering sales or major strategic shifts.

Technology

9. Scientists Create Robots Smaller Than a Grain of Sand (WSJ)

Researchers at the University of Pennsylvania and the University of Michigan have built the world’s smallest fully programmable, autonomous robots—each smaller than a grain of salt—overcoming a decades-long barrier in robotics. Described in Science Robotics, the robots can sense their environment, respond autonomously, and move through liquids using tiny electric fields powered by light. Penn researchers developed the propulsion system, while Michigan engineers created an onboard microcomputer that lets each robot be programmed via light pulses to perform distinct tasks and communicate data through observable movement patterns.

The advance opens possibilities in medicine—such as in-body sensing or tissue sampling—and in precision manufacturing, including micro-scale etching and electroplating. Experts like Kevin Chen call the work a major step for nanorobotics. The robots currently cost about $10 each to make but could drop to pennies with mass production. While they can’t yet communicate with one another, researchers say that capability is under development, potentially enabling coordinated swarms for complex tasks.

Health

10. OPINION | Boy Crisis of 2025, Meet the ‘Boy Problem’ of the 1900s (NYT)

America faced a “boy problem” in the early 1900s amid rapid technological change, immigration, and widening inequality, and the most effective response wasn’t just policy—it was a surge of civic institutions like Big Brothers, Boys’ Clubs, Boy Scouts, Girl Scouts, and 4-H that created structured spaces, mentorship, and pro-social pathways for youth. The argument is that the U.S. now faces a comparable crisis for boys and young men: worsening mental health (including sharply higher suicide rates), declining educational attainment, rising disengagement from school and work, and—crucially—deepening loneliness and disconnection from family, community, and civic life. This “crisis of connection” leaves young men vulnerable to corrosive online influences that convert isolation into grievance.

The proposed solution is a modern civic response alongside targeted policy: expand apprenticeships, recruit more male teachers, build male-friendly mental-health supports, and strengthen father leave, but also rebuild mentoring ecosystems and male-centered guidance structures. The piece warns that many formerly boy-serving organizations have gone coed and now serve more girls than boys, while male volunteering has dropped—leaving boys waiting longer for mentors and contributing to the decline in structured activities like sports, especially for lower-income boys. The takeaway: helping boys and men is not anti-woman, and the country needs more men to step up as mentors, coaches, and “elders,” rebuilding local institutions that give boys direction and give men purposeful ways to contribute.

11. AI Chatbots Linked to Psychosis, Say Doctors (WSJ)

Psychiatrists are increasingly concerned that prolonged, immersive conversations with AI chatbots may be linked to cases of psychosis, particularly among vulnerable users. Clinicians report dozens of recent cases in which people developed strong delusions after interacting extensively with tools like OpenAI’s ChatGPT and similar platforms. While AI may not create delusions outright, doctors say chatbots can reinforce them by accepting users’ false beliefs as reality and reflecting them back, creating a feedback loop. Reported delusions often involve grandiosity, conspiracies, or perceived relationships with the AI itself, and some cases have coincided with suicide, violence, and lawsuits.

Life

12. Most Top-Achieving Adults Weren’t Elite Specialists in Childhood, New Study Finds (WSJ)

A new study published in Science finds that early stardom in sports, music, academics, or chess rarely translates into elite success in adulthood. Analyzing data from nearly 35,000 adults across multiple fields, researchers found only about a 10% overlap between top-performing children and world-class adults. Most adult standouts were not exceptional as kids, and most child prodigies did not remain elite during peak performance years, making lifelong prodigies the exception rather than the norm.

The findings challenge the idea that early specialization and intensive training—often justified by concepts like the “10,000-hour rule”—are the main paths to excellence. Instead, elite adults tended to sample a wider range of activities in youth, spending fewer hours early on in their eventual specialty. Researchers argue that encouraging children to pursue multiple interests improves adaptability, reduces burnout and injury risk, and increases the chances of long-term success, suggesting breadth in early development matters more than early dominance.

Travel

13. A Cheap Vacation

NOTE: It’s been a while since I’ve used Google Street View, but I did so recently and was rather surprised by just how many roads and places in the world have been photoed. Granted, there are large swaths that haven’t been, but still, even in the most remote places—like the Sahara desert, the Amazon, Pacific Islands, Antarctica, you name it—there are pictures. Yes, even North Korea (though they do suspiciously all have pictures of Kim Jong Un or his father…). Below is a global view of where Google Street View has photos, but even in remote parts if you zoom in you’ll find photos. So, if you’re looking to vacay in a place (if even for a few minutes at work), you can do it cheaply via Google Street View.

Some places I recommend checking out:

• Petra (The Treasury)

• Angkor Wat, Cambodia

• Moscow, Russia

• Mt Everest

• Kilimanjaro

Areas where you won’t find Google Street View: Laos, most of North Korea, most of China, and much of the Sahara…namely because it’s a desert (though some places have been added!)

Interesting Reads

NOTE: The following are two long reads, both of which are related to the CIA and are rather fascinating.

14. How the CIA smuggled Orwell and Le Carré into the eastern bloc (Economist)

For three decades before the fall of the Berlin Wall, the CIA secretly smuggled 10 million books into the Soviet-dominated eastern bloc—titles ranging from 1984 to John le Carré novels to writing guides by Virginia Woolf. The operation, led by George Minden, aimed to bypass communist censorship and promote “free, honest thinking” in societies where printing was tightly controlled, dissident literature was banned, and even typewriters required registration.

The agency supplied not only books but also printing materials to underground networks, especially in Poland, where smuggled ink, typesetters, and photocopiers enabled dissidents to reproduce forbidden texts and publish independent newspapers. Dissidents later credited these illicit books as vital to sustaining morale and resisting authoritarianism.

Long overlooked, the program is now being recognized—thanks to a new book, The CIA Book Club: The Secret Mission to Win the Cold War with Forbidden Literature, by Charlie English—as one of the most unusual and culturally sophisticated intelligence operations of the Cold War.

NOTE: Today, instead of books, we now engage in information warfare through videos and posts on social media.

15. How Did the C.I.A. Lose a Nuclear Device? (NYT)

A plutonium-packed generator disappeared on one of the world’s highest mountains in a hush-hush mission the U.S. still won’t talk about.

BONUS: Bad Charts & Information

NOTE: Here are two items here that I came across this week that bugged me.

Home Affordability Remains Strained Nationwide, with Modest Fourth Quarter Improvement

NOTE: I get regular updates from ATTOM on the state of housing in the US and I’ve written to them before about their charts—namely that they just don’t make sense as presented. It appears my advice has gone unheeded. Lots of things bother me about the chart below.

• The first and most minor issue is that here are simply way too many circles to make the snapshot useful. However, this image is just that, a snapshot of an interactive image; when you go to the Tableau widget on their website, you can zoom and hover over cities. So, I’ll forgive them for that issue.

The more egregious items are the scale, colors and title: “Q4 2025 Affordability Index* (Under 100 is Less Affordable Than Historic Average)

• The scale goes from 57 to 124. Why those two numbers? Because they represent the highest and lowest affordability numbers. Not intuitive, but OK. Perhaps they could’ve normalized the scale on a 1 to 100, but they didn’t.

• Next, “100 is less affordable than historic average”. So, I ask you, where is 100 on that chart? Is it the tick mark in the middle? I would assume so, since we’re talking about “less..than..average”. So, quick math: 124 minus 57 equals 67; half of 67 is 33.5. When we add 33.5 to 57 we get 90.4. Wait, what? So where is 90.4? Maybe it’s everything left of the orange block? So, quick math: 67 divided by 5 (sections) equals 13.4; the dividing lines between each section would then be: 57, 70.4, 83.8, 97.2, 110.6, 124. Nope, 100 isn’t there either. So, who knows where 100 is on that chart.

• Lastly, the colors. The colors! Give me a break, man. I think most people, at least Americans, think in stoplight colors—green, yellow, red, with red being bad. In this chart, red is actually good—it represents those areas well over 100—meaning they are more affordable than average.

Which country has the lengthiest coastline along the Gulf of America (Mexico)?

NOTE: I was doing some research on the Gulf of America (formerly known as Gulf of Mexico) relating to which country had the longest coastline along the gulf. I did a quick google search, and one of the top results was this site:

https://travelasker.com/which-country-has-the-lengthiest-gulf-of-mexico-coastline/

The results, according to the website, of countries with the longest coastline along the Gulf of America:

1. Honduras

2. Belize

3. US

4. Mexico

5. Cuba

This had me scratching my head, as to my knowledge, neither Honduras nor Belize even border the Gulf (see map below). And, even if you were to make an argument to me that they did, they don’t have nearly the same length of coastline that the Mexico or the US have.

I’m not sure if this is just another example of AI slop being thrown into webpages, or just poor research. The bottom line here is you need to check multiple sources—don’t just trust the first page you read on the internet, or the AI-provided answers you receive.

Share

I think I’ve finally caught up after a busy December. I appreciate the many notes of condolence I received on the passing of my mother—very kind of you all.

Below are the things that stood out from the past month (some you may have already seen elsewhere); topics include: Venezuela, government & defense, economy & housing, health, life, and entertainment.

Venezuela

1. A President Captured: How the Elite Delta Force Raid in Caracas Unfolded

The United States carried out an unprecedented operation to capture a sitting foreign leader, seizing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, in a pre-dawn raid in Caracas and flying them to face criminal charges in New York. Ordered by Donald Trump, the mission culminated months of covert CIA intelligence work and escalating U.S. military pressure aimed at weakening Venezuela’s defenses and signaling readiness to act on its territory.

The raid, executed by U.S. Army Delta Force, lasted under 30 minutes but involved extensive preparation, including rehearsals on a replica of Maduro’s compound and a massive, multi-domain operation with more than 150 aircraft, cyber and space support, and temporary power disruptions in Caracas. U.S. helicopters came under fire during insertion, one aircraft was hit but remained operational, and some U.S. personnel were injured; no American fatalities were reported. Maduro and Flores—both indicted on narco-terrorism conspiracy charges—surrendered and were extracted safely, later transferred via the USS Iwo Jima en route to the United States.

NOTE: The article below is from early December. It’s a great read. I imagine Machado’s return to Venezuela will be far less perilous.

2. Rescued at Sea: How Venezuela’s Machado Survived the Riskiest Leg of Her Escape

Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado escaped Venezuela in a perilous, privately funded extraction operation to reach Norway and receive the Nobel Peace Prize. After traveling in disguise from a Caracas suburb to a remote Caribbean fishing village, Machado set out on a small skiff toward Curaçao. The journey nearly failed when mechanical problems caused long delays, rough seas knocked out GPS devices, and the boat drifted off course for hours in 10-foot waves, briefly losing all contact with the extraction team.

The mission—dubbed Operation Golden Dynamite—was led by Bryan Stern, a U.S. combat veteran and head of a private evacuation group staffed by former special operations and intelligence personnel. Although funded by private donors, Stern remained in real-time contact with senior U.S. military and government officials, who monitored the operation as it unfolded. After a tense overnight search at sea, Stern’s team located Machado’s disabled skiff and transferred her safely to a larger boat, then carried her to Curaçao.

From Curaçao, Machado boarded a private jet to Oslo, arriving after nearly three days on the move and just missing the Nobel ceremony, which her daughter attended on her behalf. The operation unfolded amid escalating U.S. pressure on Venezuela’s authoritarian government under Nicolás Maduro, whom Machado has openly challenged since a disputed 2024 election. Machado later described her rescue as a “miracle.”

3. The World Is Awash With Oil and Prices Are Poised to Keep Falling

Global oil markets are facing a growing supply glut as production surges from both long-established exporters and new producers like Guyana, which has ramped up from zero to nearly 1 million barrels a day in just four years. OPEC and its allies, along with rising output from the U.S., Brazil, Canada, Argentina, and even sanctioned producers such as Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, are adding barrels faster than demand is growing. As a result, oil inventories on water are swelling, benchmark Brent crude has fallen about 20% this year to near $60 a barrel, and many traders expect oversupply to persist into 2026, potentially pushing prices into the $50s.

Lower oil prices are benefiting consumers through cheaper gasoline and easing inflation, delivering political and economic relief in countries like the U.S. However, they pose serious fiscal challenges for oil-dependent nations such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, and several OPEC members that require much higher prices to balance their budgets. Energy companies are responding with layoffs, tighter spending, and pressure on suppliers, even as some producers continue drilling due to technological gains and long-term demand expectations.

NOTE: And now that the US is taking control of Venezuela’s oil reserves (for the time being), you can bet we’ll be putting even more of a squeeze on other countries.

4. Maduro, Venezuela, The U.S.—And The Oil Shock China Can’t Price In

The U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro triggered immediate but targeted reactions in energy markets, signaling not a global oil shock but a looming squeeze in heavy sour crude. Venezuela accounts for less than 1% of global oil consumption, yet its Merey 16 crude is critical for refineries with coking capacity that cannot easily substitute lighter grades. Market indicators—such as widening diesel cracks and tanker rerouting—reflect concern over refinery-specific feedstock shortages rather than broad supply disruption.

China is particularly exposed on three fronts:

1. Financial — China Development Bank holds an estimated $17–19 billion in outstanding oil-backed loans to Venezuela, now at heightened risk of structural write-down amid regime change and possible “odious debt” claims.

2. Operational — Independent Chinese refiners, especially in Shandong, are optimized for Venezuelan heavy crude and now face costly, imperfect substitutes.

3. Strategic — Washington’s action demonstrates a willingness to disrupt Chinese commodity supply chains in the Americas.

While Chevron’s joint ventures continue operating under a renewed U.S. Treasury license—sending barrels primarily to U.S. refiners like Valero and Marathon—China must now replace lost Venezuelan supply in a tighter, higher-priced market. Alternative heavy crudes from Canada or Mexico exist, but competition for those barrels will likely raise costs across the system.

5. No Rules

NOTE: A cousin of mine started a Substack titled Union Brief. I’ve been very impressed by his writing and the topics he’s covering—economy, education, history, and more.

He recently published a three-part series titled No Rules on how warfare is changing. In Part 1 he covers the death of traditional warfare, in Part 2 he covers tempo, and in Part 3 he covers the future of warfare. It’s a well-reasoned series that I recommend reading. Given this morning’s attack on Venezuela and capture of Maduro, it was a prescient series of posts.

Hard not to appreciate a series that shows how Russia yields its Instruments of Power:

ECONOMY

NOTE: This occurred in early December in case you missed it:

6. US FED Injects $13.5B in Liquidity Overnight as QT Ends, Bitcoin & MSTR Stock React

The U.S. Federal Reserve injected $13.5 billion in overnight liquidity through repurchase agreements, following an additional $25 billion earlier in the day, as quantitative tightening came to an end. The move ranks among the largest liquidity injections since the Covid era and signals short-term stress in funding markets, echoing conditions seen during past repo crises. The operations provided banks and primary dealers with short-term funding backed by Treasury and mortgage-backed securities. While such liquidity injections are typically supportive of risk assets, the timing—amid broader market weakness—has raised questions about underlying financial system pressures.

7. Instacart’s AI-enabled pricing may bump up your grocery costs by as much as 23%, study says

Instacart uses AI-driven pricing experiments that can charge different customers different prices for identical grocery items, sometimes with variations as high as 23%. An investigation by Consumer Reports and Groundwork Collaborative found that all tested shoppers were exposed to these experiments, with some products showing multiple price points that could add up to as much as $1,200 a year for a typical family. Because prices are presented without comparison to what others see, consumers often have no way of knowing they may be paying more, raising concerns about fairness and transparency.

The practice has drawn scrutiny from the Federal Trade Commission, which is investigating whether such pricing may be deceptive. While Instacart says only a limited number of retail partners use short-term, randomized price tests and denies using personal data to set prices, consumer advocates warn that AI-powered dynamic pricing could increasingly allow companies to charge shoppers the maximum they are willing to pay—challenging long-standing expectations that grocery prices are the same for everyone.

8. All That Cheap Chinese Stuff Is Now Europe’s Problem

U.S. tariffs under President Trump have sharply reduced Chinese exports to America, redirecting a flood of low-cost goods into Europe instead. Chinese e-commerce companies such as Shein and Temu have rapidly expanded across the EU and the U.K., taking advantage of higher duty-free thresholds for small packages and building fast logistics networks that include cargo airlines, European warehouses, and informal “family warehouses” run by Chinese immigrants. As a result, Europe has overtaken the U.S. as China’s largest market for low-value package exports, helping push China’s trade surplus past $1 trillion.

The surge has sparked backlash across Europe over consumer safety, environmental impact, and unfair competition. Regulators have found widespread violations of EU product standards on Chinese platforms, while retailers warn the influx is undercutting prices and threatening millions of jobs. In response, the EU plans to impose fees on small packages and fully close its de minimis loophole by 2028, with the U.K. following later. Despite protests and regulatory scrutiny, European consumers—strained by years of weak growth—continue to embrace the ultra-cheap convenience, making it difficult to slow the flow of Chinese goods.

9. Greece pays off debt worth 5.3 billion euros ahead of schedule

Greece has paid off €5.3 billion in bailout-era debt years ahead of schedule, covering loans originally due after 2031. The early repayment is expected to save the country €1.6 billion in interest through 2041 and reduce its debt to below 120% of GDP by 2029, according to government officials.

The debt stemmed from Greece’s first euro zone bailout in 2010, during the crisis that nearly forced the country out of the euro and led to years of austerity and social unrest. While Greece’s economy is steadily recovering, it still carries the highest debt-to-GDP ratio in the euro area, making the early repayment a significant step toward improving its long-term financial position.

NOTE: Wow, way to go Greece!

Government

10. Thinking Differently About Trust in Government

Americans’ distrust of the federal government is not a recent phenomenon but a decades-long trend that began with the expansion of government in the 1960s. As Washington’s size and role grew, so did opportunities for criticism, conflict over moral and regulatory issues, and perceptions of inefficiency, waste, and scandal. Brief increases in trust following economic booms or national crises have never reversed the overall decline, which has been reinforced by polarization, media scrutiny, slow or failed government programs, and high-profile breakdowns such as pandemic fraud and infrastructure delays. Many Americans also see skepticism as healthy, believing distrust pressures politicians to perform better.

Given these dynamics, trust levels from the mid-20th century are unlikely to return. The familiar polling question about trusting Washington “to do the right thing” now yields historically low results and offers limited insight into how trust might be rebuilt. The argument is that measuring public confidence in specific agencies and functions—tracked consistently over time—would better capture how performance affects trust. More nuanced, regular polling could clarify where confidence is earned or lost, but ultimately restoring trust depends less on surveys and more on competent, accountable governance.

NOTE: Salient arguments by the author of the article above. I have to wonder, is our government too big? We know a certain percent of waste and inefficiency is always going to exist within an organization, but how do we control it? We have an incredibly powerful US military, yet haven’t passed a financial audit in nine years.

DEFENSE

11. Pentagon fails financial audit for 8th year in a row

The Pentagon failed its financial audit for the eighth straight year, remaining the only major federal agency never to pass since audits were mandated in 2018. The latest Defense Department report identified 26 material weaknesses and two significant deficiencies, including major accounting failures in the Joint Strike Fighter program, where assets in the Global Spares Pool were omitted or inaccurately recorded, resulting in a material misstatement of the department’s financial statements.

Defense leaders acknowledged the problems but emphasized continued commitment to reform. The Pentagon reported $4.65 trillion in assets and $4.7 trillion in liabilities worldwide, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the department is using audit results to guide improvements and strengthen fiscal accountability. The Pentagon’s chief financial officer said the goal is to resolve critical issues and achieve a clean audit by 2028.

12. U.S. Flips History by Casting Europe—Not Russia—as Villain in New Security Policy

The Trump administration’s new National Security Strategy sharply breaks with past U.S. policy by directing its strongest criticism at Europe rather than traditional adversaries. It portrays European nations as declining, overly constrained by the European Union, weakened by immigration, and increasingly unreliable as allies. The document accuses European governments of undermining democracy, warns of “civilizational erasure,” and frames the EU and other transnational institutions as threats to sovereignty. European leaders and analysts reacted with alarm, viewing the strategy as a declaration that the trans-Atlantic partnership that has underpinned Western security since World War II is effectively over.

Strikingly, the strategy does not name Russia as a threat and instead casts the U.S. as a mediator between Europe and Russia, criticizing Europe’s approach to Ukraine and calling for an end to NATO’s expansion. Analysts argue the document aligns more closely with Russian interests and signals an intent not to withdraw from Europe but to reshape it politically, including by encouraging resistance to Europe’s current trajectory from within. European officials pushed back, emphasizing Europe’s strong democratic credentials and warning that the strategy represents a profound and destabilizing redefinition of U.S.–European relations.

NOTE: The new National Security Strategy can be found here.

13. See How a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Could Unfold

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be one of the most complex and destructive military operations imaginable, requiring forces to cross the treacherous Taiwan Strait under heavy fire and seize limited, difficult landing zones on a mountainous, densely populated island. Taiwan’s terrain, weather, narrow beaches, and urban concentration favor defenders, who could exploit tunnels, cities, and chokepoints to slow or bleed invading troops. Any conflict would be extremely costly, risk U.S. intervention, and have profound global economic and geopolitical consequences.

Military planners envision three broad phases: an initial missile and air campaign to cripple Taiwan’s defenses and deter U.S. involvement; a perilous amphibious assault using a mix of military and civilian vessels to land troops and equipment; and a push to seize ports and ultimately Taipei, where urban warfare would be fierce. While China has rapidly expanded its missile forces, amphibious units, and logistics capabilities—including reliance on civilian ships and mobile piers—the operation would still hinge on overcoming immense logistical hurdles and sustained resistance, making the outcome highly uncertain and the risks extraordinarily high.

NOTE: Absolutely exceptional article from WSJ—visuals and analysis are well done.

Health

NOTE: No surprise here—a systematic review and meta-analytic investigation comprised of data from 98,299 participants across 71 studies revealed that “greater engagement with [short-form video platforms such as TikTok, Instagram Reels, and YouTube Shorts] platforms is associated with poorer cognitive and mental health in both youths and adults.” You are becoming dumber and more mentally unwell by all your scrolling:

14. Feeds, Feelings, and Focus: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Examining the Cognitive and Mental Health Correlates of Short-Form Video Use

NOTE: Love this video from Nike. Why risk it? Because you can. In an era when many young people are hesitant to take risks, even seemingly little ones, Nike is doing its part to counter the narrative. It’s OK to fail, it’s NOT OK to not try. Young people — get out there and do things!

15. WHY DO IT? | NIKE

16. College campuses have become a front line in America’s sports-betting boom

Sports betting has rapidly reshaped how Americans—especially young men—engage with sports since its legalization began in 2018. Now legal in most states, betting is deeply woven into college culture, media, and social life, with apps, promotions, and gambling odds embedded in broadcasts and online platforms popular with students. While legalization has brought oversight and tax revenue, it has also normalized constant wagering, particularly on college campuses where sports are omnipresent and many students are betting for the first time away from home.

The consequences are increasingly visible: a significant share of young men report financial trouble, emotional dependence, and disrupted daily life tied to betting, with counselors, psychiatrists, and bankruptcy lawyers seeing sharp rises in gambling-related harm. Colleges and the NCAA face mounting challenges, including harassment of student-athletes, integrity breaches in games, and scandals involving insider betting. Efforts to regulate, curb sponsorships, and limit certain wagers have been inconsistent, leaving a system where betting is easy, risks are high, and for many young gamblers, losses are simply followed by another bet tomorrow.

17. America’s Seniors Are Overmedicated

Older Americans are increasingly prescribed large numbers of medications, often by multiple doctors, creating dangerous combinations that can lead to confusion, falls, and serious injuries. One in six Medicare seniors takes eight or more drugs, frequently including medications that geriatric experts warn older patients should avoid, such as benzodiazepines, muscle relaxants, antihistamines, and drugs like gabapentin that affect the central nervous system. These risks are compounded by fragmented care, incomplete medication records, and limited oversight, even though Medicare mandates some medication reviews that often fail to reduce overall drug use.

In 2022, 7.6 million seniors were simultaneously prescribed eight or more medications for at least 90 days. Of those seniors, 3.9 million took 10+ drugs at once. And more than 419,000 of them were prescribed 15+ drugs at the same time. Among the seniors in the Journal analysis who were taking eight or more drugs, 3.6 million had prescriptions for at least one medication that geriatricians say elderly patients should generally avoid.

18. Nearly One in 10 U.S. Adults Report Having Had Cancer

Nearly one in ten U.S. adults (9.7%) now report having been diagnosed with cancer at some point in their lives, up sharply from 7% in 2008–2009. This increase is not driven by rising rates of new cancer cases, which have modestly declined overall, but by falling mortality and improved survival that allow more people to live longer after diagnosis. Advances in treatment have raised five-year survival rates, while cancer death rates have steadily dropped, resulting in a growing population of survivors.

The rise in lifetime cancer prevalence is concentrated among older Americans, reflecting both improved survival and a rapidly aging population. Adults 65 and older now report cancer diagnoses at much higher rates, while prevalence among younger adults has remained relatively stable despite increases in some early-onset cancers. The trend spans racial and ethnic groups and has narrowed gender differences, with men now slightly more likely than women to report a lifetime diagnosis. While these patterns reflect progress in treatment, they also signal growing long-term demands on the healthcare system as millions of survivors require ongoing monitoring, care, and support.

19. Accommodation Nation

Disability accommodations in higher education have expanded rapidly, transforming what was once a simple process of administering exams into a complex logistical challenge. Universities are struggling to meet demand as growing numbers of students receive official disability designations that grant extra time, separate testing spaces, or technology use. At elite institutions, testing centers are often overwhelmed, forcing professors to improvise solutions that can undermine fairness and even increase distraction rather than reduce it.

The surge reflects rising diagnoses of ADHD, anxiety, and depression, along with universities making accommodations easier to obtain—trends that are most pronounced at highly selective schools. At institutions like Harvard, Brown, and Amherst, 20% to more than 30% of undergraduates are registered as disabled, with most receiving accommodations. The result is a paradox in which the most academically successful universities now report the highest shares of students deemed unable to succeed without special academic adjustments, raising questions about equity, standards, and the purpose of accommodations.

20. Could Massachusetts Become the First State to Undo Legal Weed?

Momentum is building behind a national backlash against marijuana legalization, led by activists who argue that commercialized cannabis has harmed public health. In Massachusetts, organizers have gathered enough signatures to advance a 2026 ballot measure that could repeal recreational marijuana legalization, while other states are moving to block future legalization efforts and federal lawmakers have targeted THC-infused products. Influential critics such as drug policy scholar Kevin Sabet contend that legal cannabis fuels addiction, mental illness, and social harm, particularly among youth, and accuse the marijuana industry of adopting tactics pioneered by Big Tobacco.

Sabet argues that rising concerns about psychosis, violence, and addiction are shifting public opinion and policy, even as he opposes criminalizing individual marijuana use. He says the Trump administration is largely skeptical of legalization, despite some internal pressure to ease restrictions, and frames marijuana commercialization as a broader “addiction-for-profit” problem that weakens society and national competitiveness. With polling showing declining support for cannabis and recent policy setbacks for legalization advocates, opponents believe the U.S. may be entering a new phase of resistance to the marijuana industry’s expansion.

Housing

21. America’s Six Million Home Shortage: Why California Is at the Epicenter

The U.S. housing shortage is estimated at roughly six million homes, but nearly one-third of that gap is concentrated in California and nearby western states. New analysis shows that California alone accounts for about 1.4 million excess missing homes, with ten neighboring “blast zone” states adding another 600,000. If these 11 states had built housing at rates similar to the rest of the country, the national shortage would be far smaller. The most severe shortages cluster in coastal California and the Mountain West, where housing scarcity exceeds 15% of existing supply in many counties.

The crisis stems largely from decades of restrictive zoning, environmental rules, and local opposition to new development, which have driven prices far above national norms and pushed millions of Californians to relocate across the West—exporting affordability problems to neighboring states. The analysis argues that meaningfully easing America’s housing shortage requires boosting supply where constraints are most severe, particularly by allowing denser housing, smaller lots, and mixed-use development with streamlined approvals. These changes, it concludes, could substantially close the West’s housing gap within a decade.

NOTE: Link to below map here.

22. America’s work-from-home capitals are in a sorry state

Remote work has become a permanent feature of the U.S. economy, with about 15% of workers in major metropolitan areas working from home most days and even higher shares in cities like Austin, Denver, San Francisco, Seattle, and Portland. As pre-pandemic office leases expire, the financial impact on city centers is becoming clearer: office vacancies exceed 25% in some cities, property values are falling, and tax revenues tied to commercial real estate are shrinking. These trends are straining municipal budgets, particularly in cities with high concentrations of remote workers.

Reduced commuting has also cut spending on transportation, retail, and services, worsening deficits for transit agencies and local governments. Slowing migration into former work-from-home magnets and rising borrowing costs are now pressuring housing markets, further weakening the tax base. In response, cities are freezing hiring, cutting services, and preparing layoffs, even as budget shortfalls spread nationwide. The shift to remote work, accelerated by the pandemic, is leaving lasting fiscal challenges for American cities.

23. Top Gun Traders: Stock Bets and Crypto Culture Take Over the Military

A booming stock and crypto market has turned U.S. military bases into hubs of intense investing activity, with servicemembers trading stocks, cryptocurrencies, and meme assets from deployments, barracks, and even aircraft carriers. Young troops with steady pay, strong job security, and access to investing apps have embraced risk-taking, sharing tips through group chats and social media. Military communities played an outsized role in early crypto adoption, and many servicemembers have built significant wealth through tech stocks, bitcoin, and index funds, with visible signs ranging from luxury cars to high-end watches.

The culture also carries substantial risks. Peer-driven hype, concentrated bets, and limited experience with prolonged market downturns have left some troops vulnerable to sharp losses, scams, and overconfidence. Financial advisers and veterans warn that high valuations and reliance on a narrow set of assets could lead to painful reversals if markets correct. While some servicemembers have shifted toward diversified investing after losses, the mix of camaraderie, competition, and easy access to trading continues to fuel both notable successes and costly failures.

Life

24. Conservative Young Women Flip the Script: Kids First, Then Career

There is a growing divide between conservative and liberal women over how to balance career and family, with many conservative women rejecting the long-dominant idea that family should wait until after career establishment. Instead, they promote a “seasons of life” approach—prioritizing marriage and children earlier, then scaling careers up or down over time. Influential conservative figures and organizations encourage young women to pursue education and work, but not at the expense of starting a family, criticizing egg freezing and the “you can have it all at once” mindset as misleading. The broader message is that meaning, not just career success, should guide life decisions, even if that means delaying or reshaping professional ambitions. Data show the gap has widened sharply: by 2024, about 75% of liberal women ages 18–35 were childless, compared with roughly 40% of conservatives.

Entertainment

NOTE: This year I saw two movies about bird watching, which is not a hobby of mine. They were funny movies so I thought I’d pass them on to you here. Yes, I know movies about birding may sound boring, but these two movies make the topic enjoyable.

25. The Big Year

Two bird enthusiasts try to defeat the cocky, cutthroat world record holder in a year-long bird-spotting competition. It’s a comedy, as you might suspect, starring Owen Wilson, Jack Black and Steve Martin.

Listers: A Glimpse into Extreme Bird Watching

Two brothers learn about competitive birdwatching by becoming birdwatchers—spending a year living in a used minivan, traveling the country to compete in a ‘Big Year’. This is a funny, documentary-style movie about actually trying to become record holders. Warning: it does have adult language.

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1. Denmark gets ready to cancel Christmas cards (Economist)

Denmark will become the first European country to end national letter collection and delivery when its state-owned postal service, PostNord, ceases the activity on December 30th. Letter volumes in Denmark have collapsed by 90% over 25 years—accelerated by a 2024 law that removed the universal service obligation, opened the market to competitors, and eliminated the postal service’s VAT exemption. With stamp prices jumping to some of the highest in the world, letter-sending has effectively died out.

The decline reflects a global trend: digital communication has replaced paper mail, while parcel volumes have surged due to e-commerce. Some postal systems have successfully reinvented themselves—such as Italy’s Poste Italiane and Germany’s Deutsche Post DHL, which expanded into banking, insurance, and logistics. Others—like Greece’s state carrier, Canada Post, and the U.S. Postal Service—are struggling with losses, branch closures, and labor disputes.

Letters still matter in less-digitized countries, but Denmark’s highly online society makes letter delivery economically unsustainable. Experts predict more countries may follow Denmark within a decade. Danes will still be able to mail letters through private firms like DAO, but iconic red post boxes—fixtures since the 1800s—are likely headed for museums as the country leaves physical mail behind.

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

2. Trump signs executive order launching AI initiative being compared to the Manhattan Project (NBC)

President Donald Trump signed an executive order launching the “Genesis Mission,” a major federal initiative intended to dramatically accelerate U.S. artificial intelligence research and scientific innovation. Described in the order as comparable in urgency to the Manhattan Project, the mission aims to expand national computing power, open access to vast federal datasets, strengthen public-private partnerships, and drive real-world AI applications—especially in fields like biotechnology, robotics, and advanced energy.

The initiative directs Energy Secretary Chris Wright to build a new American Science and Security Platform to centralize federal data and computational infrastructure for training large AI models. Michael Kratsios, Trump’s science and technology adviser, will lead the effort across agencies and oversee integration of federal datasets, which the administration calls the largest scientific data collection in the world.

The Genesis Mission builds on the existing National AI Research Resource (NAIRR) program, launched in 2020, which connects federal agencies and private-sector partners—including OpenAI, Google, Palantir, NASA, NIH, and the Defense Department—to share research tools, data, and infrastructure.

The announcement comes as the Department of Energy expands partnerships with leading chipmakers. Recent agreements include new AMD- and HPE-built supercomputers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and additional Nvidia-based systems to support quantum and AI research. Federal officials say these collaborations are essential for maintaining U.S. leadership in AI and ensuring innovation serves the national interest.

3. People can’t tell AI-generated music from real thing anymore, survey shows (CBS)

A new Ipsos survey shows that 97% of people cannot reliably distinguish AI-generated music from human-created tracks. The survey, conducted for the streaming platform Deezer across eight countries, found that more than half of respondents felt uncomfortable not being able to tell the difference. Many worry AI will lead to lower-quality music (51%) and a loss of creativity (nearly two-thirds).

AI music is rapidly spreading on streaming platforms. In January, 1 in 10 tracks streamed daily on Deezer were fully AI-generated; by October, that number had surged to over 1 in 3 — about 40,000 tracks per day. Eighty percent of listeners want AI-generated music clearly labeled. Deezer is currently the only major platform that systematically labels such content.

The issue gained attention when a viral Spotify “band,” The Velvet Sundown, was later revealed to be entirely AI-generated. Spotify has since said it will encourage voluntary disclosure of AI use in music production.

4. Inside the World of AI Song-Making: Big Hits and a 7-Figure Deal (WSJ)

AI-generated music has reached a tipping point, producing commercially successful songs and disrupting the music industry. Telisha “Nikki” Jones of Mississippi became an overnight sensation after using an AI song generator and an AI avatar—Xania Monet—to turn one of her poems into a hit. Her track reached No. 20 on Billboard’s Hot R&B Songs chart and led to a seven-figure record deal. At least 10 AI-made songs have charted recently, and some have gone viral on Spotify.

The rapid rise of AI song generators—especially Suno—has sparked intense debate. Major labels are suing AI music companies for allegedly training on copyrighted songs without permission, while many artists denounce AI music as inauthentic. Yet casual listeners often can’t tell the difference, and may not care.

AI tools now let users create entire songs through text prompts, refining them repeatedly until satisfied. Some creators are gaining millions of streams despite having no traditional musical background. Industry veterans say these “music designers” represent a new class of artist enabled by zero-barrier technology.

Critics fear the technology could displace human musicians and reshape the industry, while supporters argue it democratizes music creation. Either way, AI-generated tracks are improving fast, drawing investment, charting hits—and forcing the music world to confront a future where songs can be made with almost no human performance at all.

NOTE: I missed this when it came out in August—Rick Beato, a music educator with a huge online following, created the song below using AI, to include the music, the lyrics, and the video. The video looks like it is AI generated, so I recommend just listening to the song and not watching the video in order to get a better perspective on how advanced AI song making has become.

Walking Away (Music Video) | Sadie Winters | Emotional Ballad on Letting Go

5. How China-linked hackers co-opted Anthropic’s Claude (Economist)

A new report reveals that GTG-1002, a Chinese state-sponsored hacking group, has been conducting rapid, highly sophisticated cyberattacks using an autonomous AI hacker built on Anthropic’s Claude. Human operators simply aimed the AI at major tech firms and government agencies, and within an hour it could scan systems, deploy custom malware, map internal databases, and steal sensitive data.

GTG-1002 evaded Claude’s safeguards by “jailbreaking” it—posing as a legitimate cybersecurity firm, splitting attack steps across multiple conversations, and preventing detection by Anthropic’s monitoring systems. Anthropic has since expanded its defensive tools, but the incident highlights how quickly threats evolve.

This isn’t the first misuse of Claude: Anthropic has previously uncovered criminals using its coding agents for extortion and ransomware creation. Still, the GTG-1002 campaign marks a more advanced and autonomous use case, even if the AI occasionally exaggerated its abilities or misinterpreted tasks.

Currently, the strongest defenses come from large AI labs that monitor activity and retain logs to detect malicious behavior. But the growing availability of powerful open-source AI models—run privately on any hardware and outside big-tech oversight—creates a major risk. As criminals and state actors adopt these unregulated tools, AI-driven cyberattacks are likely to accelerate, posing a significant challenge for those already confronting China’s state-linked hacking operations.

ECONOMY

6. U.S. trade deficit drops 24% in August as Trump’s tariffs reduce imports (AP)

The U.S. trade deficit dropped sharply—nearly 24%—in August, falling to $59.6 billion from $78.2 billion in July, largely because President Trump’s sweeping global tariffs depressed imports. Imports fell 5% as companies had stocked up before new tariffs took effect on August 7, while exports rose slightly (0.1%). Although the monthly deficit narrowed, the trade gap for 2025 as a whole remains much larger—up 25% compared with the same period in 2024.

Economists note that a smaller trade deficit boosts GDP because fewer imported goods subtract from economic output. Despite the data being delayed by the government shutdown, analysts say the August figures support evidence of strong third-quarter growth.

Trump argues that tariffs protect U.S. industries, but economists say they have also contributed to inflation by raising costs for importers and consumers. After voter frustration over high living costs led to Democratic gains in the November elections, Trump removed tariffs on several everyday goods, acknowledging they “may” have increased prices. His broader tariff strategy now faces a Supreme Court challenge, with justices questioning whether he had authority to impose widespread duties by declaring a national emergency.

NOTE: For reference, below is a chart of our trade deficit for the last 10 years. Even with the recent drop in the deficit, we are still not at pre-COVID levels.

7. US Consumer Sentiment Falls to Near Lowest on Record (Bloomberg)

US consumer sentiment fell sharply in November, dropping to one of the lowest readings ever recorded. The University of Michigan’s sentiment index slid to 51, down from 53.6 in October. The current conditions gauge plunged to a record low, with views of personal finances the weakest since 2009.

Americans remain frustrated by persistently high prices and stagnating incomes. Although short- and long-term inflation expectations eased slightly, consumers are still anxious about the cost of living and job security. The perceived likelihood of job loss rose to its highest level since mid-2020, and continuing unemployment claims reached a four-year high — signaling that displaced workers are struggling to find new jobs.

The report highlights a widening divide: wealthy households remain able to spend, but lower-income and non-stockholding consumers are increasingly strained. Buying conditions for large purchases hit an all-time low, reflecting growing pessimism about the near-term economic outlook.

8. The Middle Class Is Buckling Under Almost Five Years of Persistent Inflation (WSJ)

After five years of elevated prices, America’s middle class is increasingly strained. Overall costs are now about 25% higher than in 2020, and essentials—from groceries to car repairs—continue to rise. Even households earning between roughly $67,000 and $200,000 (Pew’s middle-class definition) feel squeezed, eroding confidence in both their finances and the country’s direction.

Middle-class consumers are cutting back, hunting for bargains, and shifting spending to value retailers like Walmart. Companies such as Wingstop and Target report weaker demand from this income group, while consumer-sentiment surveys show nearly half of middle earners say they’re worse off than a year ago, largely due to persistent prices. Meanwhile, wealthier households—buoyed by the stock market—remain far more optimistic.

Many middle-class families describe daily life as exhausting: coping with higher rents, insurance premiums, taxes, and interest rates; taking on debt for medical expenses or education; and working extra jobs or hours just to keep up. Pandemic-era savings, once a buffer, have been fully depleted. Political frustrations span both parties, with voters gravitating toward candidates promising affordability relief.

The overarching mood: fatigue, financial pressure, and a fading sense that hard work is enough to maintain stability.

9. America’s K-shaped wealth divide: What’s behind it and will it last? (The Hill)

Many analysts argue the US economy has split along income lines—a “K-shaped” pattern where the wealthy continue to prosper while low- and middle-income households struggle. Economist Peter Atwater first used the term during the pandemic to describe how white-collar workers thrived while many blue-collar workers faced layoffs. Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi now says this divide has widened: the top 10% of earners account for nearly half of all consumption, up sharply from both 2020 and the 1990s.

But this view faces pushback. Some economists, like Domenic White, say spending shares across income groups have remained stable and that high-income households’ greater propensity to save would normally slow growth, not concentrate it. Others note that any analysis of inequality must factor in taxes and federal transfer programs, which have mitigated income disparities in recent decades.

Still, inflation has intensified the sense of divergence. Research from the Minneapolis Fed shows low-income households have faced higher cumulative price increases than wealthy households since 2005, largely because renters have been hit harder than homeowners. Surveys show inflation feels far more stressful to lower-income Americans than to the affluent.

Looking ahead, whether the K-shaped dynamic persists will depend on consumer spending patterns and labor-market strength. If job cuts accelerate or if the stock market—which narrowed inequality temporarily during its 2022 drop—sells off again, the divide could shift. The future trajectory of AI-driven investment, fiscal policy, and interest rates will also influence how sharply the economy remains split.

PERSONAL FINANCE

10. Traders Are Flooding Markets With Risky Bets. Robinhood’s CEO Is Their Cult Hero. (WSJ)

Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev has aggressively repositioned the company as the premier platform for hyper-active, risk-embracing retail traders. At the firm’s flashy Las Vegas summit—part tech conference, part fan convention—Tenev framed trading as an adrenaline-fueled lifestyle and presented Robinhood as the finely tuned “race car” enabling it. Robinhood now attracts millions of users betting on everything from stocks and crypto to zero-day options, prediction markets, and even contracts tied to entertainment or sports outcomes. Many attendees describe the trading thrill as addictive and financially transformative.

Though critics say Robinhood has become more casino than brokerage, its supporters credit it with democratizing sophisticated investing tools. The company leans into its most active users because they drive the majority of its revenue—78% of transaction-based income now comes from options and crypto. After the GameStop backlash and a deep post-pandemic slump that led to layoffs and a crisis of confidence, Tenev shifted the company’s strategy: instead of courting beginners, Robinhood now aggressively caters to seasoned, high-frequency traders. That pivot helped propel the stock into the S&P 500 and sparked a strong rebound.

The firm’s events, marketing, and leadership style cultivate a fandom around Tenev, who embraces a Silicon Valley persona, evangelizes tokenization and AI-driven financial futures, and now openly enjoys his wealth. Critics remain wary of Robinhood’s role in encouraging speculative behavior, especially amid volatile markets and a narrow, AI-driven rally. But many users see Robinhood as the gateway to opportunity—and believe they can’t afford to sit out.

11. Gambling, Prediction Markets Create New Credit Risks, BofA Warns (Bloomberg)

Bank of America is warning that the rapid rise of sports betting and prediction markets poses a new and growing credit risk for lenders. Since the Supreme Court lifted the federal ban on sports gambling, online betting has surged, and newer platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have expanded the trend by offering “event contracts” tied to elections, sports outcomes, and other real-world events. These platforms look and feel like gambling apps, with mobile-first, gamified interfaces that encourage frequent and impulsive bets.

BofA analysts say these products are especially risky for low-income consumers and young men, who are more prone to financial stress from losses. Research from UCLA and USC shows that in states with legalized online betting, average credit scores fall, bankruptcies rise by 28%, and debt sent to collections increases 8% within four years. One in four bettors report missing bill payments, according to a recent survey.

Banks that cater to lower-income borrowers—such as Bread Financial, Upstart, and OneMain—are most exposed. BofA argues that lenders will need to adapt underwriting models to account for gambling-driven financial strain.

Prediction markets claim their platforms are fairer than sportsbooks because they act as neutral exchanges rather than “the house.” But BofA warns that as the line between gambling and speculative finance blurs, compulsive behavior and rising loan delinquencies could pressure credit quality across the industry.

HEALTH

12. Don’t cheer the end of America’s obesity crisis just yet (Economist)

Recent reports suggest America’s obesity rate may be falling, but the evidence is weak. The CDC’s “gold standard” NHANES survey showed obesity dropping from 41.9% in 2020 to 40.3% in 2023—but the sample is small, making the change statistically insignificant. Gallup’s survey also shows a decline (from 39.9% in 2022 to 37.0% in 2025), but its recent data have been inconsistent, rising sharply in earlier years while government surveys showed steadier trends.

Larger federal surveys such as the BRFSS, with over 400,000 respondents, show no decline at all—rates of obesity and morbid obesity have remained flat. This isn’t the first time the US has prematurely celebrated a supposed plateau in obesity.

Some attribute the drop to the surge in GLP-1 weight-loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy, which are increasingly popular and heavily used by women and middle-aged adults. But when government survey data are limited to those groups, obesity rates still show no meaningful decline. Experts say GLP-1s may eventually reduce national obesity levels, but far more people would need to take them for the effect to show up in population-wide statistics.

For now, any claim that America is slimming down is premature.

13. Millions of Kids Are on ADHD Pills. For Many, It’s the Start of a Drug Cascade. (WSJ)

A major Wall Street Journal investigation shows that many children diagnosed with ADHD are being placed on multiple powerful psychiatric drugs, often starting as early as preschool, despite limited evidence that these drug combinations are safe or effective for developing brains.

Data show the problem is widespread:

• 7.1 million U.S. children have ADHD diagnoses; about half take medication.

• Among kids started on ADHD meds, 1 in 5 later ends up on additional psychiatric drugs.

• WSJ’s analysis of Medicaid records found children prescribed ADHD drugs were five times more likely to be on multiple psychiatric medications four years later.

• By 2023, over 23% of those who started ADHD meds in 2019 were on two or more psych drugs; more than 4,400 children were on four or more simultaneously.

Experts warn that polypharmacy in children, especially involving antipsychotics, has little scientific validation and carries serious risks, yet it is often driven by:

• Pressure from schools and daycares to “fix” disruptive behavior quickly

• Shortages of child psychiatrists and behavioral therapists

• Misdiagnosed trauma or environmental stressors

• Side effects from ADHD medications mistaken for new psychiatric disorders

• Clinicians without specialized training in pediatric mental health

• Parents desperate for help and given few alternatives

14. 12th grade girls are less likely than boys to say they want to get married someday (Pew)

Pew Research Center’s analysis shows that today’s U.S. high school seniors are far less certain about marriage and parenthood than 12th graders were 30 years ago. In 2023, only 67% of seniors said they expected to get married someday, down from 80% in 1993, while the share who were unsure rose significantly. Teens’ expectations about marriage itself have softened as well: just 51% now say they are very likely to stay married to the same person for life, compared with 59% three decades earlier. Interest in having children has dropped even more sharply—only 48% say they’re very likely to want kids if they marry, down from 64% in 1993. The overall decline in enthusiasm for marriage is driven almost entirely by girls; their interest fell from 83% to 61%, while boys’ views remained largely unchanged. Despite these shifts, girls and boys show no significant differences in their expectations about staying married or having children.

15. Stats Can says 42% of babies born in Canada to foreign-born mothers in 2024 (Toronto Sun)

Statistics Canada reports that 42.3% of all newborns in 2024 had a foreign-born mother, nearly double the share in 1997 (22.5%). This reflects a long-running trend: foreign-born women are more likely to give birth than Canadian-born women of the same age. As a result, foreign-born mothers have slowed Canada’s decline in births; without them, the country’s natural population increase would have turned negative by 2022.

The impact varies by region and age:

• Ontario and British Columbia had the highest shares of births to foreign-born mothers (48.7%).

• The Atlantic provinces had the lowest (23.6%).

• Among mothers over 40, 57% of babies had a foreign-born mother.

• Among teen mothers, only 12.8% did.

Since 1997, the largest increases were in Saskatchewan (+437%), the Atlantic region (+298%), Alberta (+264%), and Manitoba (+206%).

The biggest shift has been in origins: mothers born in India rose from 2.1% of all births in 1997 to 10.3% in 2024, making India the top source country. The Philippines (3.1%) and China (2%) followed.

The numbers highlight two major demographic forces: accelerating fertility decline since 2009 and record-high immigration, which now plays an essential role in sustaining the country’s birth totals.

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American education is in a deep, long-running crisis that many parents—especially in affluent districts—have failed to recognize. National Assessment of Educational Progress scores show steep drops in reading and math for 4th, 8th, and 12th graders, with huge shares unable to handle basic comprehension or middle-school arithmetic; the declines began before COVID and were accelerated by it, producing a “fanning” effect where top students hold steady but low performers fall far behind, widening racial and economic gaps.

Devices replaced books and paper learning, tutoring became a private, unequal substitute, and grading softened as accountability systems weakened after 2015 and during the pandemic. Some southern states (notably Mississippi) improved through back-to-basics instruction and maintaining test-based accountability, while liberal communities often resist test data on equity grounds. Politics, complacency, and misaligned priorities have let standards and achievement erode nationwide, and even wealthy districts are discovering too late that spending and good intentions don’t guarantee real learning.

2. 40% of middle and high school students spend about half the school day on devices (Sherwood)

Nearly six years after schools shifted to remote learning, student devices have become a permanent fixture in American classrooms. According to an October New York Times survey, 8 in 10 teachers say their students now have school-issued devices—up sharply from about one-third in 2019. While younger children tend to use screens for less than an hour a day, device use increases significantly in middle and high school. Pew data show that about 40% of older students spend more than three hours per school day on devices—meaning at least half their class time is screen-based. Teachers worry about the consequences: 70% say devices distract students from schoolwork at least somewhat.

3. ‘A Recipe for Idiocracy’ (The Atlantic)

America is facing a steep and worsening decline in math skills, and the impact is now hitting universities. UC San Diego—an elite institution that once saw only about 30 freshmen arrive with below–high school–level math—now reports more than 900 incoming students who struggle with middle-school concepts such as fractions, slopes, and basic algebra. Other UC campuses, along with universities like George Mason, report similar surges in underprepared students, many of whom earned straight A’s in their high-school math classes.

National data confirm the trend: U.S. math performance has been falling for a decade, with sharp drops during pandemic-era remote learning. Eighth-grade math skills are now a full year behind 2013 levels, and the lowest-performing students have fallen even further. While top students have recovered, the majority have not.

Experts point to several causes:

• Smartphones, social media, and AI have eroded attention and reduced engagement.

• Schools lowered standards, adopted “no zeros” grading, and relaxed expectations during the pandemic.

• Curriculum shifts emphasized engagement over evidence-based instruction.

• Equity policies and limited resources often kept students out of advanced math.

• The UC system eliminated SAT/ACT requirements, removing the most reliable measure of math readiness.

These policies produced a disconnect: grades inflated while actual skills deteriorated. Many top-tier students now place into remedial courses covering elementary and middle-school material.

UC San Diego’s new report urges reinstating standardized testing and rebalancing admissions to avoid enrolling large numbers of “profoundly underprepared” students who are likely to struggle. But scholars warn that fixing college admissions will not solve a nationwide collapse in numeracy.

Experts unanimously reject the notion that AI can replace foundational math skills. As one Stanford professor put it: relying on AI rather than basic reasoning is “a recipe for idiocracy.” The U.S. now faces long-term educational and economic consequences unless it dramatically restores rigor and rebuilds quantitative literacy.

NOTE: For those of you who don’t know, the movie Idiocracy is an R-rated, NSFW prophetic warning about what our society could look like when we sacrifice intellectualism (and families) for personal pleasure and consumerism. For a kid-friendly version of this prophecy, I recommend watching WALL-E.

4. Growing up Online Nearly Killed Me (After Babel)

Sexual extortion (“sextortion”) is one of the fastest-growing online dangers for young people, with Snapchat alone receiving about 10,000 reports per month — far more than the public realizes. The article tells the story of Roxy Longworth, a London teenager who was groomed, coerced, and blackmailed beginning at age 13. Older boys pressured her for explicit photos, threatened her, and ultimately circulated her images across their school. The shame and harassment that followed led Roxy into a severe mental health crisis, including self-harm, psychosis, and multiple suicide attempts.

Her mother, Gay, recounts how institutions failed them — the school blamed Roxy instead of recognizing sextortion, and the family endured a social-services investigation rather than coordinated support. Police eventually intervened, recognizing that Roxy was a victim, not a culprit. Recovery took years and required psychiatric treatment, constant supervision, and a painstaking rebuilding of trust between mother and daughter.

Roxy and Gay ultimately wrote When You Lose It, a joint memoir created through letters, to process the trauma and help others. Their experience shows how ordinary digital interactions can escalate into life-threatening harm and how shame isolates victims. Roxy later founded Behind Our Screens, an advocacy campaign pushing for safer online environments, better education, and stronger protections from tech companies.

It’s a good read that highlights both the scale of the sextortion crisis and the critical role that open conversation, parental support, and systemic change must play in preventing similar tragedies.

5. Reading Books Made a Man Out of Me (FP)

Shilo Brooks argues that true masculinity includes cultivating the life of the mind, a lesson learned not through lectures but through watching a stepfather read faithfully each night. Growing up amid instability and poor role models, he found books to be a path toward depth, purpose, and eventually an academic life he never seemed destined for. A single novel—This Side of Paradise—ignited in him a desire for an old-fashioned, rigorous education built around great books.

He connects this personal transformation to a broader crisis among young men today, noting sharp declines in reading, rising loneliness, and a widespread sense of purposelessness. Books, he argues, can save men by offering meaning, empathy, intellectual struggle, and the chance to discover their own values. Difficult books are especially important, because wrestling with them strengthens the mind. In contrast, a frictionless digital life erodes attention and humanity. Having been lifted by literature from hardship to a career in teaching and leadership, he now wants to help other men reclaim reading through a new podcast—Old School—designed to build community, spark serious conversations, and develop better men by making them better readers.

NOTE: Here’s one particular Old School podcast where Brooks interviews retired Navy Admiral James Stavridis about one of his favorite books, The Old Man and the Sea, by Ernest Hemingway. Admiral Stavridis has a personal collection of 5,000 books! …and reads around 100 books a year.

6. Niall Ferguson: Without Books We Will Be Barbarians (FP)

Ray Bradbury’s Fahrenheit 451 was prophetic about a society abandoning books, but Bradbury assumed this would require totalitarian coercion. Instead, Ferguson says, modern consumer culture has accomplished the same outcome voluntarily: people are turning away from reading on their own, absorbed by screens, distracted by entertainment, and increasingly reliant on audio, video, and emojis in place of written text. Data shows a steep, decades-long decline in reading among Americans—especially young people—as well as falling literacy skills. This shift matters because literacy is foundational to civilization: written language made possible complex commerce, law, religion, shared cultural stories, historical memory, and analytical reasoning.

Literacy also underpins skepticism, critical thinking, and the ability to distinguish myth from history. As society moves toward post-text communication and AI-driven audio/visual information, we risk reverting to a preliterate mindset—one characterized by forgetting the past, blurring truth with myth, and becoming susceptible to conspiracy theories. Ferguson warns that without reading, people lose access to the cultural inheritance that teaches virtue, lose the tools for reasoning, and drift toward a more primitive social order. If this trend continues, only a small minority of “scribes” may preserve literacy, while many others slide back into a modern version of ancient peasantry.

NOTE: I thought this was an interesting observation from Ferguson: “encouraged by the peculiar difficulty of the iPhone keyboard, there’s the rise of the emoji, which is in reality a return to the pictograph, a primitive pre-alphabetic form of written communication.”

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Wall Street has rapidly transformed into the financial engine of America’s AI boom, pouring unprecedented sums into data-center construction for companies like Meta, Microsoft, Oracle and OpenAI. Firms such as Blue Owl—once focused on midmarket corporate lending—now arrange multi-billion-dollar financing packages for AI infrastructure, often using complex, highly leveraged structures. Private credit, private equity, and corporate bonds are all being tapped as Big Tech’s capital spending heads toward nearly $3 trillion by 2028—far more than tech companies can fund from cash flow.

Despite growing concerns about an AI investment bubble, fear of missing out is driving banks and asset managers to chase massive fees. Some deals have produced instant windfalls, such as Pimco’s $1–2 billion paper profit on Meta data-center bonds. But the risks are substantial: Oracle is heavily indebted; many financing arrangements are circular; and five-year loans backing mega-projects could be hard to refinance if AI demand falters or chips become obsolete.

The AI build-out is already larger than the fracking boom, and its debt is spreading widely through pension funds, mutual funds, insurers, and retail portfolios. If the AI market cracks, the fallout could be far-reaching.

NOTE: In my post this weekend, I talked about how most AI investment was coming from internal company funding and that many people were hopeful. This appears to be changing, and debt is coming more into the picture, and concerns are rising:

2. He’s Been Right About AI for 40 Years. Now He Thinks Everyone Is Wrong. (WSJ)

Yann LeCun—one of the pioneers of modern AI and Meta’s longtime chief AI scientist—has grown increasingly out of step with Meta’s strategy as the company pours vast resources into large language models like Llama. LeCun argues that LLMs are a dead end and that future breakthroughs will come from “world models” that learn about the physical world the way animals or children do. While he once led Meta’s influential FAIR research lab, he stepped back years ago to focus on long-term research, and Meta’s recent restructuring has sidelined him further, installing new leadership and shifting resources toward fast-paced, product-driven AI work. LeCun has been talking to colleagues and investors about launching a startup centered on his world-models vision. A historically independent thinker who helped create fundamental neural network advances, he now spends much of his time traveling, speaking, and openly advising young researchers not to work on LLMs—even as Meta doubles down on them.

3. Will AI lengthen lifespans or shorten them? (FT)

Artificial intelligence is transforming scientific fields, and the advances are fueling optimism about radical life extension. Yet recent mortality research shows that rising deaths among younger and middle-aged adults in countries like the US, UK and Canada are offsetting gains among older populations. These deaths are not simply “deaths of despair” or the result of drug availability; they disproportionately occur among cohorts hit by severe joblessness early in life, compounded by social isolation.

This combination raises concerns that AI could lower life expectancy even as it improves healthcare. If AI eventually causes widespread, lasting job displacement, the resulting loss of purpose, structure and social connection could mirror the conditions that currently drive self-destructive behaviors. Increased reliance on digital interactions—including with AI—may further deepen isolation. The likely outcome is a split: AI-boosted longevity for those who reach old age, and heightened mortality risks for younger and middle-aged groups.

4. Market Rout Intensifies, Sweeping Up Everything From Tech to Crypto to Gold (WSJ)

Markets fell sharply Monday, with a broad selloff hitting tech stocks, crypto, and gold. Investors pulled back ahead of Nvidia’s earnings and delayed jobs data, worried about massive, debt-fueled AI spending by big tech firms. The Nasdaq dropped 0.8%, the S&P 500 0.9%, and the Dow 1.2%, breaking below key 50-day moving averages for the first time since spring.

AI-related stocks—Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, AMD, SMCI, Dell, Oracle, and CoreWeave—all slid. Bitcoin plunged to about $92,000 and gold also fell. Fresh economic data showed weakening nonresidential construction outside of data centers. Fed uncertainty added to caution, with traders dialing back expectations of a December rate cut. The 10-year Treasury yield ended at 4.13% as officials urged a slow approach to easing policy.

5. Companies Predict 2026 Will Be the Worst College Grad Job Market in Five Years (WSJ)

Employers are increasingly pessimistic about hiring the Class of 2026, with more than half rating next spring’s job market as poor or fair—the bleakest outlook since the pandemic. Corporate layoffs at Amazon, UPS and Verizon, plus economic uncertainty and AI-driven job restructuring, are pushing companies to prioritize candidates with experience rather than new graduates. Recent grads also face competition from laid-off junior workers, and the unemployment rate for new degree holders has climbed to a four-year high.

Job postings are down more than 16% year-over-year, applications per job are up 26%, and over 60% of 2026 seniors feel pessimistic. Hiring freezes, efficiency layoffs, and slow growth dominate most industries, though healthcare, education, and manufacturing show some demand. Many students are applying to hundreds of jobs, often unsuccessfully, while experienced workers compete for entry-level roles, leaving many early-career job seekers anxious and discouraged.

6. Niall Ferguson: The AI Boom Is a House of Cards (FP)

Like the 1920s stocks, today’s markets are being driven overwhelmingly by expectations, with massive capital expenditures from Big Tech and extraordinary valuations concentrated in a handful of companies.

AI adoption is rapid and economically significant, but history suggests that even transformative technologies (like railroads) have triggered financial crashes when investor expectations proved too optimistic. OpenAI is as the epicenter of a potentially unstable, circular, debt-like financing Companies Predict 2026 Will Be the Worst College Grad Job Market in Five Yearsecosystem involving Microsoft, Nvidia, Oracle, Amazon, and others. OpenAI’s spending commitments—far outpacing its revenue—rely on complex arrangements where suppliers also act as investors.

Ferguson identifies four reasons investors might sour on AI: (1) AI may be less transformative for productivity than hoped, with most real-world use generating “workslop”; (2) OpenAI faces stiff competition from Google and Anthropic; (3) Chinese open-source models are becoming cheaper and more widely adopted; and (4) GPUs used as de facto collateral are short-lived assets.

A downturn could spread if highly leveraged firms like Oracle face stress. While financial conditions remain easy today, the Ferguson warns that AI’s financial structure resembles past speculative booms—and may not end well. He concludes with the Seuss refrain: he does not like “green eggs and ham,” nor the risks of the current AI mania.

Meanwhile, in other news:

7. America’s best decade, according to data (WP)

A large YouGov survey found no consensus on which decade was objectively “best” or “worst” across measures like music, movies, economy, morals, or family life. Political and racial differences appeared—such as Republicans and White respondents idealizing the 1950s more than Democrats and Black respondents—but these gaps were small compared with the influence of age. The clearest pattern was that people consistently romanticize the decade in which they were children or teenagers. Across categories, Americans tend to believe the best communities, families, entertainment, and economy existed when they were roughly 4 to 19 years old, reflecting nostalgia for one’s own formative years rather than reality.

When asked about the “worst” decade, Americans overwhelmingly choose the present, even when that choice contradicts historical facts. Researchers attribute this to “declinism,” the tendency to believe that conditions are deteriorating over time, which is amplified by partisan attitudes and selective media exposure. Yet when people rate specific cultural items—such as songs—they don’t show unusual hostility toward current eras, suggesting broad “worst” questions measure pessimism, not actual evaluation. Psychological research shows that negative experiences fade and positive memories strengthen, meaning even the 2020s—widely labeled as the “worst” today—are likely to become future generations’ “good old days.”

NOTE: Article contains LOTS of fun charts!

8. Which Decade(s) Saw the Greatest Change in Popular Music? A Statistical Analysis (Stat Significant)

As people age, their openness to new sounds declines, but mainstream music also evolves constantly, with measurable shifts in composition—tempo, mood, instrumentation—accumulating into major stylistic changes each decade. Big transformations in the early 1980s and 2000s reshaped the charts as rock collapsed and genres like pop, hip-hop, rap, and country surged, driven by new technology and fresh creative approaches. These cycles of rise and decline show up clearly when tracking Billboard data: genres pass the baton, new styles bloom, old ones fade, and listeners tend to bond most with whatever dominated when they were teenagers. The result is a form of “sonic Darwinism” where music never stops mutating, making each generation feel confused by the next—yet that constant evolution is what keeps culture vibrant and gives young people something that feels uniquely their own.

9. Pornhub says UK visitors down 77% since age checks came in (BBC)

Pornhub says its UK traffic has dropped 77% since the Online Safety Act began requiring strict age verification for adult sites, a shift partly reflected in Google search data and a surge in VPN downloads as users attempt to bypass the rules. Ofcom, UK’s regulator for communication services, reports that overall UK visits to pornography sites have fallen by about a third and argues the law is working as intended to prevent children from easily accessing explicit content. Pornhub contends that enforcement is uneven, with non-compliant sites gaining users, and says requiring individual sites to verify ages is impractical, advocating instead for device-level checks. Regulators and experts disagree on the best approach, but maintain that most traffic now goes to sites with age-assurance systems in place, and the government insists protecting children online remains a top priority.

10. The College Kids Who Can’t Do Basic Math

UC San Diego reports a sharp rise in incoming students who lack even middle-school–level math skills: since 2020, the share has increased nearly thirtyfold, with about one in eight first-years now unable to solve problems expected of eighth graders and roughly 20 percent unable to correctly count basic coins. Remedial math enrollment—originally designed for about 1 percent of students—has surged to 8.5 percent, with an additional 3.3 percent placed into high-school-level catch-up courses. The trend mirrors broader national learning loss, driven by pandemic disruption, chronic absenteeism, grade inflation, and test-optional admissions that make academic transcripts less reliable indicators of readiness. NAEP data show record-low proficiency in reading and math, and UC San Diego notes that deficiencies increasingly overlap: many students needing remedial math also require remedial writing. Experts argue that while COVID worsened the situation, deeper systemic issues in K–12 education continue to erode academic preparation even at top universities.

11. Half of new US companies disappear within 5 years — and only 1 in 3 makes it to year 10 (Sherwood)

About half of new U.S. startups survive five years, and those founded in 2019 are outperforming historical patterns despite the pandemic. BLS data show that 51.6% of firms launched in March 2019 were still operating in 2024—part of a long-term curve in which one-third of businesses reach 10 years, one in five reach 20, and only about 13% last three decades. Survival rates vary by geography and industry: states like West Virginia and Connecticut perform best, while Washington, Missouri, and D.C. lag behind; sectors with stable demand and high entry barriers, such as agriculture and utilities, tend to endure longer than volatile fields like mining or tech. Historically, startups born during recessions fare worse, but those launched just before the pandemic bucked the trend, potentially benefiting from emergency loans, stimulus-driven demand, cheap borrowing, and booming e-commerce.

12. Putin Is Turning Eighth-Grade Classrooms Into Army Training Grounds (WSJ)

Russia is rapidly militarizing its school system, embedding war themes, weapons training, and pro-Kremlin ideology throughout the curriculum as the Ukraine conflict enters its fourth year. Even first-graders now take part in uniformed drills with frontline soldiers, while by eighth grade students must learn to assemble Kalashnikovs, fly drones, and study battlefield tactics. History textbooks portray the West as an enemy and Ukraine as a NATO-controlled threat, and a state-run Youth Army claims nearly two million members aged 8–18. Funding for “patriotic education” has soared, schools are being supplied with model weapons, and occupied Ukrainian territories are forced to adopt the same curriculum. Supporters see this as preparing disciplined patriots; critics warn it is creating an indoctrinated generation without the critical thinking to question future wars. Teachers who resist the program face intimidation or prosecution, underscoring how deeply the Kremlin is leveraging education to shape Russia’s future soldiers and worldview.

13. How HR took over the world (Economist)

Human resources has expanded rapidly over the past decade, becoming one of the fastest-growing parts of corporate life. In the U.S., HR employment is up 64% in ten years—far outpacing overall job growth—and CHROs are gaining pay, influence, and even rising to CEO roles. This surge reflects tight labor markets, rising demand for specialized skills, constant workplace upheavals (#MeToo, Covid-19, remote work, return-to-office battles), and the growth of DEI initiatives, all of which increased the need for compliance, conflict management, and employee-relations oversight. But the boom may be peaking: hiring has slowed, layoffs are up, enthusiasm for DEI is cooling, and many HR teams are being cut—Amazon among them. AI accelerates the risk, since companies increasingly automate hiring tasks, employee inquiries, and paperwork; a recent McKinsey survey shows HR is the function most often reporting headcount reductions due to AI. After years of expansion, HR may be the next corporate department facing contraction.

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This week: grade inflation at Harvard gets addressed, massive job cuts, AI, credit scores, rising insurance costs, real estate, marriage, obesity, the economy, island building in the Pacific, and more. Lots here, but trust me, it’s meaty.

International

1. See the Secret Networks Smuggling Drugs to the U.S. From Latin America (WSJ)

America’s demand for illegal drugs such as fentanyl and cocaine continues to sustain a vast, highly organized smuggling network that stretches from Asia and Latin America to U.S. borders. Traffickers use everything from fast “go-fast” boats and semi-submersible “narco-subs” to cargo ships and passenger cars to move drugs north while evading authorities.

Fentanyl production begins with chemical precursors purchased from China and Southeast Asia, which are shipped to Mexico’s Pacific ports, processed in rudimentary labs in Sinaloa, and smuggled across the U.S. border—mostly through ports of entry like Nogales, Arizona. Roughly 80% of fentanyl seizures occur along the southwest border, where authorities intercepted nearly 12,000 pounds last year.

Cocaine, by contrast, is largely produced in Colombia, where armed groups control coca-growing regions and ship tons of the drug via Pacific and Caribbean routes through Ecuador, Venezuela, and Central America. Global cocaine production has surged to record levels, with Colombian output reaching an estimated 3,000 tons in 2023. While fentanyl seizures have declined slightly, cocaine trafficking and busts are rising, with routes now extending as far as Australia and Europe.

In response, the U.S. has launched its largest regional military buildup since the 1980s, deploying bombers, fighter jets, and naval forces to the Caribbean under what the Trump administration calls a renewed war on “narcoterrorists.” Critics, however, say the campaign risks blurring the line between counternarcotics enforcement and geopolitical confrontation, particularly with Venezuela’s Maduro regime.

NOTE: Article contains many interesting charts.

2. Vietnam Is Building Islands to Challenge China’s Hold on a Vital Waterway (WSJ)

Vietnam has dramatically expanded its presence in the disputed South China Sea by using dredging to build artificial islands, increasing its territory more than tenfold over the past decade. Unlike China’s aggressive militarization of the region, Vietnam’s expansion has drawn little international criticism—largely because it is viewed as a potential counterbalance to Beijing’s dominance.

While the U.S. has condemned China’s island-building, it has not publicly opposed Vietnam’s actions, likely seeing them as strategically useful. A U.S. State Department official reiterated only that all claimants should resolve disputes peacefully and in accordance with international law.

Despite the rapid growth of its outposts, analysts note that Vietnam’s smaller navy and air force would struggle to defend them in an all-out conflict. Regional governments have mostly remained silent, viewing Hanoi’s actions as defensive rather than a threat to navigation or maritime rights, unlike China’s militarized installations.

Artificial Intelligence

3. OpenAI, Nvidia Fuel $1 Trillion AI Market With Web of Circular Deals (Bloomberg)

Nvidia and OpenAI are at the center of an increasingly interconnected and self-reinforcing network of AI investments that some analysts warn could be fueling a trillion-dollar bubble. Two weeks after Nvidia agreed to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI—money that would be used to buy Nvidia chips—OpenAI struck a similar multibillion-dollar partnership with AMD, becoming one of its largest shareholders. These “circular” deals, in which companies invest in each other and use those funds to buy one another’s products or services, have drawn scrutiny for potentially inflating the AI market without producing corresponding profits.

OpenAI has now signed data-center and chip deals with Nvidia, AMD, and Oracle worth as much as $1 trillion combined, despite burning cash and not expecting to turn profitable until late in the decade. Nvidia, meanwhile, is investing in dozens of AI startups—including Elon Musk’s xAI and cloud-infrastructure firm CoreWeave—that depend on its processors, creating a tightly bound ecosystem of mutual financial interests. Oracle’s low margins on Nvidia-powered cloud services and its own heavy spending have heightened skepticism about the sustainability of such arrangements.

Industry leaders argue the partnerships are necessary to meet explosive demand for computing power and accelerate progress toward artificial general intelligence (AGI). But critics liken today’s frenzy to the dot-com era, when companies used reciprocal deals to inflate valuations. While Nvidia’s enormous profits give it staying power, OpenAI’s massive spending ambitions and reliance on debt and creative financing have raised the stakes. As one analyst put it, OpenAI’s Sam Altman now has “the power to crash the global economy for a decade—or take us all to the promised land.”

NOTE: Just one image (of one of many) of data centers being built:

4. What Happened When Small-Town America Became Data Center, U.S.A. (WSJ)

Fueled by the nation’s race to expand cloud capacity and artificial-intelligence computing power, hyperscale data-center construction has exploded, concentrating roughly 72 percent of capacity in just 1 percent of U.S. counties. Communities from Oregon to Michigan are vying for projects, lured by corporate investment, tax deals, and the promise of long-term prosperity. In northeast Oregon alone, thousands of construction workers have poured in, inflating city budgets, driving new housing developments, and remaking the local economy.

Yet the boom brings uncertainty. Permanent employment at the data-centers is modest, leaving locals uneasy about what happens when construction slows. Rising costs of living and political clashes over how to use new tax revenues underscore both the promise and fragility of the moment.

City officials remain bullish, betting that AI and cloud growth will continue to fuel expansion. Amazon says it plans to double its data-center capacity by 2027. For now, Umatilla’s fortunes—and the lives of people like Leon-Tejeda—are tethered to the tech industry’s relentless push to build the digital infrastructure of the future.

5. Big Tech Is Spending More Than Ever on AI and It’s Still Not Enough (WSJ)

Silicon Valley’s biggest companies plan to spend a staggering $400 billion on artificial intelligence this year—and they say it still isn’t enough. Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Apple are racing to expand computing power and data-center capacity as AI demand surges, with many pledging to boost investments even further in 2026.

Microsoft says demand for its cloud and AI services has outstripped capacity, prompting plans to double its data-center footprint within two years. Amazon is also rushing to add cloud capacity, while Meta is diverting resources from its core businesses to AI research, despite investor unease. Alphabet raised its annual capital spending forecast to as much as $93 billion, saying the investments are already generating billions in new revenue.

Investors are split: Amazon and Alphabet shares rose after their earnings calls, while Meta fell 11% and Microsoft nearly 3%. Analysts worry about the risk of an AI bubble, given unclear returns and limited paying users. Yet executives argue the greater danger lies in underspending and falling behind in the race toward artificial general intelligence (AGI)—the elusive goal of machines surpassing human intelligence.

As companies pour billions into infrastructure, questions remain about when—or whether—these massive bets will yield profits. Still, the tech giants insist they must “front-load” investment now to secure a future advantage in what they see as the defining technology race of the decade.

6. Can AI replace junior workers? (Economist)

America’s economy remains strong overall, but job growth is slowing, with only 22,000 jobs added in August compared to 158,000 in April—raising questions about whether generative AI is beginning to displace human workers.

So far, broad data show no evidence of an AI-driven job collapse. White-collar employment, the sector most exposed to automation, has stayed steady, and research from Yale finds little change in the types of jobs people hold since ChatGPT’s 2022 debut.

However, a new Harvard study suggests early signs of AI’s subtle impact on hiring patterns. Among more than 10,000 “AI adopter” firms—companies hiring specialists to integrate AI into their workflows—junior hiring fell 7.7% more than at firms not using AI. Senior-level hiring was unaffected, implying that entry-level, cognitively demanding tasks (like debugging code or reviewing documents) are the first to be automated.

The study also found that mid-tier university graduates have been hit hardest, while top-tier grads retain roles for their expertise and lower-tier ones remain attractive for cost reasons. Still, researchers caution that only 17% of workers were at AI-adopting firms, and recent hiring volatility makes it difficult to isolate AI’s full impact.

Jobs

7. Tens of Thousands of White-Collar Jobs Are Disappearing as AI Starts to Bite (WSJ)

Major U.S. companies are slashing white-collar jobs at an accelerating pace, signaling a new era of leaner corporate operations. Amazon, UPS, and Target have all announced deep cuts—tens of thousands of management and professional roles—while firms such as General Motors, Booz Allen Hamilton, and Rivian have followed suit. Once prized for stability, office jobs are increasingly being replaced or consolidated as companies adopt artificial intelligence and face investor pressure to boost efficiency.

The shift has left many educated, midcareer professionals struggling to find work in a stagnant job market. Nearly two million Americans have been unemployed for six months or longer, and only one in five say they are confident they could find a good job soon. While blue-collar fields like construction, healthcare, and hospitality still face worker shortages, white-collar hiring has frozen, with companies demanding highly specific skills and often rejecting qualified applicants for not being a “perfect match.”

AI is amplifying the trend. Many roles—especially in human resources, sales, accounting, and software development—are now being automated. Some firms, like consulting company SBI, have replaced most of their programmers with AI that “writes its own Python,” dramatically cutting costs and staff.

The result is a widening divide: manual and technical trades are booming, but office work is contracting. For laid-off professionals like Chris Reed, a former tech salesperson now selling cars after depleting his savings, and new graduates like Baylor alum Kobe Baker, entry into or return to white-collar employment feels increasingly out of reach. What’s emerging, economists warn, is a “white-collar recession”—a restructuring of the American workplace where fewer people do more work, and the promise of steady professional employment is no longer guaranteed.

8. Why Companies Are No Longer Hanging On to Employees (WSJ)

Corporate America is ending its post-pandemic firing freeze, marking a major shift in the U.S. labor landscape. After years of “labor hoarding”—keeping workers amid hiring shortages—many large companies are now cutting staff as the job market softens and economic uncertainty rises. In recent weeks, major employers including Amazon, UPS, Target, and Meta have announced tens of thousands of layoffs, reversing years of caution about reducing headcount.

The change reflects a more “1990s-style” mindset in which companies view job cuts as a way to streamline operations and boost profits. Executives cite overlapping roles, slower decision-making, and rising labor costs as reasons for trimming staff. Investors have largely rewarded these moves: shares of Amazon, UPS, and Target all rose after their layoff announcements. Many firms also appear more confident they can hire again later without the struggles seen after the pandemic’s reopening, when competition for workers was fierce.

Several forces are driving the trend. Companies that overhired during the pandemic are now right-sizing, while others are preparing for higher tariffs, weaker demand, and expanding AI automation, which executives expect will replace certain roles. The unemployment rate, once at a record 3.4% in 2023, has risen to 4.3%, and consumer expectations for further job losses are growing.

Economists warn, however, that widespread layoffs could threaten an already fragile labor market—especially with the U.S. adding only 22,000 jobs in August before data releases were delayed by the government shutdown. While some of these layoffs may reflect industry realignment and optimism about AI efficiencies, sustained job cuts could tip the economy from slow growth into contraction.

9. UPS Cuts 48,000 Jobs in Management and Operations (WSJ)

UPS has eliminated 48,000 management and operations positions as part of a major restructuring effort aimed at cutting costs and improving efficiency. The company disclosed the reductions—which included 14,000 management roles and 34,000 operations jobs—in its latest earnings report. These cuts, achieved through layoffs and buyouts, significantly exceed earlier plans announced in January and April 2024, when UPS had projected a total of about 32,000 job reductions.

Chief Executive Carol Tomé, the first outsider to lead UPS, said the company continues to find opportunities to streamline costs and is “positioned to run the most efficient peak in our history.” Since taking over during the pandemic, Tomé has shifted UPS’s focus toward profitability over volume, reducing dependence on major customers like Amazon, whose shipments have fallen by over 21%.

UPS has already closed 93 buildings this year, cut back on leased vehicles and seasonal workers, and saved about $2.2 billion through restructuring and automation. While third-quarter profit and revenue declined, both exceeded expectations, driving shares up nearly 7% in afternoon trading. The company said it expects further efficiency gains and continued reductions in Amazon-related volume as it heads into the holiday season.

10. Amazon Lays Off 14,000 Corporate Workers (WSJ)

Amazon announced 14,000 initial layoffs, with total reductions potentially reaching up to 30,000 corporate positions—around 10% of its white-collar workforce. The cuts, which affect departments including human resources, cloud computing, and advertising, are part of CEO Andy Jassy’s multiyear cost-cutting campaign aimed at streamlining operations and investing more heavily in artificial intelligence.

Senior Vice President Beth Galetti told employees the reductions are meant to reduce bureaucracy and redirect resources toward Amazon’s “biggest bets” and customer priorities. Affected employees will have 90 days to seek new internal roles.

The layoffs reflect broader corporate trends, as major U.S. companies—including Meta, JPMorgan, and Walmart—tighten hiring or downsize, often citing efficiency gains from AI adoption.

This is Amazon’s largest workforce reduction since 2022, when it cut 27,000 jobs following over-expansion during the pandemic’s online-shopping surge. Amazon says generative AI will increasingly reshape its operations and workforce in coming years.

11. Walmart, Once a Byword for Low Pay, Becomes a Case Study in How to Treat Workers (WSJ)

In 2015, Walmart made history by raising its starting wage to $9 an hour, boosting pay for nearly half its U.S. hourly workforce. The move initially alarmed Wall Street—shares dropped 10%, erasing $21.5 billion in market value—but it has since become a Harvard Business School case study in long-term success.

Then–new CEO Doug McMillon pushed the wage hike not as charity but as a business strategy: turnover was high, morale was low, and customer experience was faltering. By improving pay, training, and store organization, Walmart aimed to reduce attrition, strengthen operations, and compete more effectively with Amazon. Though the $2.7 billion investment temporarily hurt profits, it ultimately revitalized sales and operational efficiency.

Since then, Walmart’s U.S. sales have grown every year, and its stock has more than doubled over five years. Average hourly pay has risen from about $12 in 2015 to over $18.25 in 2025, with expanded benefits such as paid family leave, tuition-free education, and promotion pipelines through regional training academies. Employee retention has improved by more than 10%.

The company now blends higher wages, automation, and AI-driven efficiency to maintain a stable 2.1 million-person global workforce while growing revenue. McMillon calls Walmart’s transformation a “system”—proof that investing in workers can drive profitability, innovation, and long-term competitiveness, even in an era of technological disruption.

12. See How the Average U.S. Worker Has Changed Over 250 Years (WSJ)

Over nearly 250 years, the U.S. workforce evolved from a small, agrarian population to a diverse, service-driven labor force exceeding 150 million workers today.

1774–1800: On the eve of the American Revolution, the colonies’ economy was primarily agricultural, with roughly 800,000 workers—most earning less than $1 per day. By 1800, 83% of America’s 1.68 million workers labored on farms, and about one-third were enslaved.

1820–1860: The invention of the cotton gin fueled agricultural expansion across the South, where enslaved labor became central—comprising up to 70% of the workforce in some states. By 1860, the U.S. workforce had grown to 11.1 million, with sharp regional divides: industrializing North vs. slave-dependent South.

1910: Industrialization and immigration transformed the economy; 36.2 million people were working, with 22% foreign-born, and manufacturing emerging as a dominant sector.

1950: After World War II, the manufacturing boom made up 26% of employment, with nearly 57 million workers overall, and shorter workweeks (about 41 hours).

1979–2000: U.S. manufacturing employment peaked in 1979 with 20 million workers before steadily declining. By 2000, women comprised nearly half the workforce, as the service industry became the nation’s primary economic engine.

NOTE: More charts in the article itself.

Economy

13. What Investors Learned From Tech Earnings, in Charts (WSJ)

The latest earnings reports from major tech companies revealed a mixed picture, highlighting both the power and the risks of the ongoing artificial intelligence investment boom. Strong results from Amazon helped lift the Nasdaq to its seventh consecutive monthly gain—its longest streak since 2018—while heavy spending plans from Microsoft and Meta led to sharp selloffs, with Meta losing $215 billion in market value in a single day.

Tech leaders including Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon told investors they will continue to increase capital spending in 2026, pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into AI infrastructure. Yet many investors remain uneasy, questioning when and how such massive investments will generate returns, and whether the surge echoes the dot-com bubble.

Despite these concerns, today’s AI titans remain highly profitable: Meta and Alphabet both reported record revenues. However, their collective cash flow has declined over the past two years as spending accelerates. Meanwhile, valuations have soared—Nvidia became the world’s first company to reach a $5 trillion market cap, while Apple and Microsoft each crossed $4 trillion for the first time.

Together, the “Magnificent Seven”—Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla—now account for roughly 38% of the S&P 500’s total market value, giving their stock movements outsized influence on the entire market. At the same time, these firms are taking on record levels of debt to fund AI initiatives, a major shift for companies once known for vast cash reserves. Meta, for instance, recently issued $30 billion in bonds, joining other firms like Oracle in borrowing heavily to sustain their AI expansion.

In short, Big Tech’s AI spending spree has fueled record valuations and market dominance—but also heightened fears that Wall Street’s future may now hinge on whether these colossal bets ultimately pay off.

14. The Warning Signs Lurking Below the Surface of a Record Market (WSJ)

Wall Street investors are growing more cautious amid the market’s most volatile stretch since summer. As signs of economic strain emerge, money is flowing into defensive sectors such as utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples—industries that generate steady profits regardless of the business cycle. These traditionally safe havens are on track to lead the S&P 500 for the first time since mid-2022, while investors also seek safety in bonds and gold, driving Treasury yields below 4%.

Beneath the surface, investors are pulling back from economically sensitive stocks like banks, retailers, homebuilders, and airlines. Recent bankruptcies at First Brands and Tricolor, along with fraud concerns and loan losses at regional banks such as Zions and Western Alliance, have raised alarms about hidden fragilities in the credit market. The spread on junk bonds—a measure of perceived risk—has widened to its highest level since June.

Still, overall corporate earnings remain strong, with analysts expecting 16% growth in the year ahead, the best since 2021. Optimists argue that fundamentals are solid and the economy is merely cooling, not contracting. But others warn that the AI-driven stock rally has masked underlying weakness in the “real economy,” where labor markets are softening and low-income consumers are cutting back.

In short, while megacap tech and AI enthusiasm continue to prop up markets, investors are quietly pivoting toward safety—signaling growing unease that the economy’s underlying strength may not match Wall Street’s exuberance.

15. The Buffett Indicator just hit an all-time high (Sherwood)

The Buffett Indicator—the ratio of total U.S. stock market value to GDP—has reached a record 225%, signaling potential overvaluation and prompting warnings of a possible market correction. Traditionally viewed by Warren Buffett as “the best single measure of where valuations stand,” the metric suggests stocks are far pricier relative to the size of the economy than at any point in history.

Other red flags are flashing too: investors are paying record prices for each dollar of S&P 500 revenue, and just eight tech giants now make up about 40% of the index’s value. However, analysts note reasons for caution—not panic. Many major U.S. firms earn nearly half their revenue overseas, making their valuations appear inflated relative to domestic GDP, and corporate profit margins remain at record highs above 14%.

With interest rates falling, inflation stabilizing, and AI optimism driving growth expectations, some investors argue that today’s lofty valuations are justifiable—at least for now. The result is a 2025 market defined by both record highs and record anxiety.

Personal Finance

16. A Fight Over Credit Scores Turns Into All-Out War (WSJ)

A fierce battle has erupted over control of the U.S. credit-scoring system, long dominated by FICO. For decades, Fair Isaac Corp.’s FICO score has determined roughly 90% of lending decisions, but the three major credit bureaus—Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion—are challenging that monopoly with their rival product, VantageScore.

Tensions spiked after FICO doubled its mortgage-score price to $10, prompting regulators to accuse it of anticompetitive behavior. The Federal Housing Finance Agency has since allowed VantageScore to be used for many mortgages, signaling the start of real competition. FICO’s CEO defends the higher prices as ensuring “safety and soundness,” while critics say they burden lenders and borrowers alike.

Now, both sides are racing to win over lenders and Washington policymakers—each claiming to champion consumer access to credit—while fighting for control of the single number that governs who gets loans and at what cost in America.

17. Runaway Insurance Costs Bring Back Talk of Price Caps (WSJ)

America is facing a home and auto insurance cost crisis, with premiums rising far faster than inflation—and some states are responding with price controls. Since 2020, average home-insurance rates are up 50% and auto-insurance rates 42%, compared with a 26% rise in consumer prices. In response, Illinois, Louisiana, New York, and Michigan are among the states proposing or enacting measures to cap or roll back rate increases.

Supporters say caps are necessary to protect consumers from what they see as unaffordable and arbitrary hikes—such as Illinois homeowners facing double-digit increases from State Farm. Critics, including insurers and analysts, argue that price controls distort markets, discourage competition, and ultimately lead companies to withdraw from high-risk states, worsening availability.

The insurance industry, long regulated at the state level since the 19th century, remains a unique case of private enterprise under political oversight. Some states like California are now reversing course, approving steep increases to lure insurers back after years of restrictive caps drove major companies away.

The debate has become politically charged: in Louisiana, Governor Jeff Landry pushed new powers to block “excessive” premiums, sparking a feud with his own insurance commissioner, Tim Temple, who warned that politicizing rate decisions would deepen the crisis.

Across the country, policymakers are walking a tightrope—trying to balance consumer protection with market stability—as Americans struggle to keep up with surging insurance bills and shrinking coverage options.

18. First-Time Home Buyer Share Falls to Historic Low of 21%, Median Age Rises to 40 (NAR)

The National Association of REALTORS®’ 2025 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers shows that first-time home buyers now make up just 21% of the market—a record low—while their median age has reached an all-time high of 40.

Economists say the drop reflects a severe shortage of affordable homes. Compared with 2007, the share of first-time buyers has fallen by half, meaning fewer young adults are building housing wealth or moving up the property ladder. Wealthier repeat buyers, often armed with equity and cash offers, dominate the market, creating what analysts call a “tale of two cities.”

NAR leaders warned that delaying homeownership by a decade can cost families about $150,000 in lost equity on a typical starter home. They urged policymakers to tackle the root of the affordability crisis by expanding housing supply—through reforms that free up existing inventory, ease zoning and permitting restrictions, repurpose underused properties, and modernize construction methods—to help restore access to homeownership and rebuild the American Dream.

19. The Average Cost of a Family Health Insurance Plan Is Now $27,000 (WSJ)

Health-insurance costs in the U.S. are climbing at their fastest pace in years, marking the third consecutive annual surge. According to the nonprofit KFF, the average cost of employer-sponsored family coverage reached nearly $27,000 in 2025, up 6% from last year and more than 20% higher than three years ago—rising faster than both inflation and wages.

Employers cite higher healthcare spending as the main driver. Rates of chronic conditions such as cancer are increasing, hospitals have raised prices, and expensive new treatments—especially GLP-1 weight-loss drugs like Wegovy and Zepbound—are adding billions in costs. Many insurers are tightening their underwriting or refusing new business, making coverage harder to obtain and costlier to renew.

To manage the rising burden, companies are increasingly shifting costs to workers—raising deductibles, copays, or employee premium contributions. Even long-standing employers who once covered full premiums, like William Duff Architects, are now requiring staff to pay extra for broader provider networks. Smaller firms are hit hardest: over half of small businesses say their health-insurance costs rose 10% or more this year, and growing numbers are dropping traditional coverage altogether, replacing it with health-reimbursement accounts or other alternatives.

Economists warn that as premiums outpace economic growth, rising healthcare costs will continue to squeeze wages, hiring, and small-business margins, deepening what many describe as America’s employer-insurance affordability crisis.

Education

20. Harvard Says It’s Been Giving Too Many A Grades to Students (Bloomberg)

More than 60% of grades at Harvard College are now A’s, a sharp rise from 40% a decade ago and less than 25% twenty years ago, according to a new report from the Office of Undergraduate Education. The study, led by Dean Amanda Claybaugh, warns that rampant grade inflation is eroding Harvard’s academic culture and diminishing the meaning of achievement.

Claybaugh cited several causes, including professors’ fears of discouraging enrollment by grading too harshly, administrative pressure to show empathy for struggling students, and student pushback for higher grades. The report urged faculty to share median grades, track grading trends, and possibly introduce A+ grades to better recognize exceptional performance.

The findings come amid federal scrutiny of universities and new calls for “grade integrity.” Despite the overall trend, the number of first-year students with perfect GPAs fell 12% last year, which Claybaugh called a hopeful sign that grade inflation can be reversed.

21. The Dawn of the Postliterate Society (FP)

Two great educational transformations have occurred in human history—the 18th-century “reading revolution” and today’s “screen revolution.”

In the 1700s, literacy spread rapidly beyond elites as cheap books and education flourished, creating the greatest transfer of knowledge in history. Reading reshaped how people thought: it fostered logic, analysis, and reason, giving rise to the Enlightenment, democracy, capitalism, and modern science. Books demanded sustained attention, deep comprehension, and reflection, forming the cognitive foundation of modern civilization.

Now, the author argues, we are living through the reverse—a collapse of literacy driven by smartphones and screens. Reading for pleasure has fallen sharply, children’s literacy rates have plunged, and many students can no longer follow classic texts. The rise of hyper-addictive, short-form media has shortened attention spans and eroded the ability to think critically or sustain complex reasoning.

The result, the essay warns, is a “postliterate” society: cognitive decline, cultural stagnation, and a collapse of serious thought. As print fades, so does rational public discourse—replaced by emotional, tribal, and populist politics. Just as print once helped overthrow feudal ignorance, the screen age now threatens liberal democracy itself, draining citizens of the intellectual habits needed for freedom.

In essence, the piece contends that the reading revolution built the modern world—and the screen revolution may be dismantling it.

Health

22. The US obesity rate keeps declining, but diabetes cases have hit a new high (Sherwood)

Gallup’s 2025 National Health and Well-Being Index shows that U.S. obesity rates have fallen to 37%, down from a record 39.9% in 2022—a decline equivalent to roughly 7.6 million fewer obese adults. The drop coincides with a sharp rise in the use of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs such as Ozempic and Wegovy, with 12.4% of U.S. adults now reporting use, more than double the rate from 2024.

The data show a stronger impact among women, whose obesity rate has decreased faster than men’s, reflecting higher rates of GLP-1 usage.

However, Gallup also reports a contradictory trend: the prevalence of diabetes (Type 1 and 2 combined) has reached an all-time high of 13.8% of adults, up from 11.4% a decade ago. This divergence suggests that while GLP-1 drugs effectively reduce obesity, they are not a comprehensive solution for metabolic health.

Despite recent progress, the U.S. continues to rank among the world’s most obese nations.

23. Some 60,000 kids have avoided peanut allergies due to landmark 2015 advice, study finds (CBS)

A decade after research first showed that feeding peanut products to infants could prevent allergies, new evidence confirms the approach is working on a national scale. A study published in Pediatrics found that since 2015, when U.S. health guidelines began recommending introducing peanuts as early as 4 months, roughly 60,000 children have avoided developing peanut allergies.

Analyzing data from dozens of pediatric practices, researchers found peanut allergy rates among children under age 3 dropped 27% after 2015 and more than 40% after expanded 2017 guidelines. Though overall food allergies remain common—affecting about 8% of U.S. children, including 2% with peanut allergies—the shift marks a major public-health success.

For decades, doctors advised delaying exposure to allergenic foods until age 3, but the 2015 LEAP trial by Dr. Gideon Lack proved early introduction could cut allergy risk by over 80%, with benefits lasting into adolescence. Still, adoption has been uneven: only 29% of pediatricians and 65% of allergists report consistently following the updated guidance, slowed by confusion and hesitation among parents and providers.

Experts say the findings reinforce that early, small exposures to foods like peanut butter, milk, and soy can safely train the immune system and prevent lifelong allergies. “There are fewer kids with food allergies today because of this effort,” said study author Dr. David Hill, calling it a model for how evidence-based public health guidance can reshape childhood health outcomes.

24. Why Married Couples Stay Together (American Story Lines)

Marriage in America appears strong overall: the divorce rate is declining, and about 80% of married people say they’re satisfied with their relationships. Still, about one in three marriages eventually ends in divorce, and around one in five married adults have at least contemplated leaving their spouse. Secular women are the most likely to have considered divorce, while religious couples are less likely to do so.

Research shows that social networks play a powerful role in marriage stability. People with divorced friends are significantly more likely to divorce themselves—one study found a 75% increase in risk when a friend divorces. Married individuals without divorced friends report higher relationship satisfaction, while those surrounded by divorce are more likely to feel unhappy.

Interviews reveal that supportive social circles can help couples work through difficulties, while friends who have divorced may unintentionally push others toward separation. The rise of social media and online forums like Reddit further complicates things by normalizing breakup advice and showcasing “alternate lives,” which can fuel dissatisfaction.

The broader conclusion: marriage success isn’t only about the couple—it depends on the social ecosystem around them. Communities that offer empathy, encouragement, and constructive guidance help strengthen marriages, while networks that normalize quitting can weaken them.

25. Your Friends Could Literally Be Keeping You Young (Vice)

A new National Institute on Aging study finds that close relationships and social engagement can actually slow biological aging—perhaps more effectively than supplements or other wellness habits. Analyzing data from over 2,000 adults, researchers created a measure of “cumulative social advantage,” combining emotional support, friendship depth, and community involvement. Those with stronger social connections showed fewer age-related DNA changes and lower chronic inflammation, both markers of slower cellular aging.

The findings suggest that loneliness and isolation trigger stress responses—raising cortisol, weakening immunity, and accelerating physical decline—while meaningful connection acts as a kind of preventative medicine. People with greater economic stability and education also tended to age more slowly, likely because security fosters stronger relationships.

In essence, the research reinforces a timeless truth: friendships and community are vital to long-term health. Maintaining close bonds, staying socially active, and nurturing trust may be among the most powerful anti-aging tools available—proving that relationships don’t just enrich life, they help extend it.

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1. NATO Agrees to New Defense Spending Target (CFR)

NATO allies endorsed a plan to spend 5 percent of their GDP on defense by 2035 and jointly reaffirmed their “ironclad commitment” to collective defense at its summit in The Hague today. The new goal includes both core military and related investments, and is a significant jump from the current target of 2 percent. The summit declaration said the new spending target would help the alliance respond to geopolitical threats—especially from Russia—and terrorism. It also voiced support for Ukraine, while omitting language from last year’s statement that Ukraine’s future was in NATO.

The new spending target, which breaks down into 3.5% for core defense spending and additional 1.5% in related investment including infrastructure and cybersecurity,

NOTE: Below is a fascinating read into the planning and execution of the Israeli attack on Iran.

2. Inside ‘Operation Narnia,’ the Daring Attack Israel Feared It Couldn’t Pull Off (WSJ)

At midnight on June 13, Israel’s generals gathered in a bunker beneath Israeli air force headquarters and watched as jets descended on Tehran in an operation they called “Red Wedding.”

Hours later and 1,000 miles away, Iran’s top military commanders were dead—a mass killing much like the famous wedding scene from the show “Game of Thrones.”

The combination of intelligence information and military precision that enabled the attack surprised people around the world. But it wasn’t the only improbable success at the outset of Israel’s 12-day campaign.

Another key part of the initial attack—considered so fantastical by even its planners that it was called “Operation Narnia,” after the fictional C.S. Lewis series—successfully killed nine top Iranian nuclear scientists almost simultaneously at their homes in Tehran.

Pulling off the attacks required elaborate ruses to ensure surprise. At the last moment, they nearly fell apart.

Economy

NOTE: If you haven’t read it, I recommend Warren Buffet’s warning about the current economic predicament we’re in…which he wrote 22 years ago.

3. America’s Growing Trade Deficit Is Selling the Nation Out From Under Us. Here’s a Way to Fix the Problem—And We Need to Do It Now. (Fortune)

I’m about to deliver a warning regarding the U.S. trade deficit and also suggest a remedy for the problem. But first I need to mention two reasons you might want to be skeptical about what I say. To begin, my forecasting record with respect to macroeconomics is far from

inspiring. For example, over the past two decades I was excessively fearful of inflation. More to the point at hand, I started way back in 1987 to publicly worry about our mounting trade deficits—and, as you know, we’ve not only survived but also thrived. So on the trade front,

score at least one “wolf” for me. Nevertheless, I am crying wolf again and this time backing it with Berkshire Hathaway’s money

Here are links to updated charts from the ones he showed 22 years ago:

US trade balance

U.S. Net International Investment Position

Federal Surplus or Deficit as Percent of GDP

Business

4. Nippon Steel Completes Its Acquisition of U.S. Steel (NYT)

Nippon Steel has completed its acquisition of U.S. Steel, the companies said on Wednesday, more than a year after it was first announced.

Soon after Nippon announced its plans to acquire U.S. Steel in December 2023, the company, based in Pennsylvania, a swing state in the presidential election, became part of a game of political football. The powerful United Steelworkers union pushed back against the deal, and President Joseph R. Biden Jr. blocked it over national security concerns.

Last month, President Trump, who had opposed the deal while he was on the campaign trail, said he had approved a transaction that granted the White House a golden share in the company, giving it extraordinary control over the new company as part of a national security agreement.

Mr. Trump and the companies have frequently referred to the deal as a partnership over the past several weeks, fueling mystery on Wall Street and in Washington over its nature. The companies said on Wednesday that they had “now completed the transaction as contemplated by their merger agreement,” effectively a confirmation that the deal is a sale to Nippon.

Shareholders in U.S. Steel had approved an acquisition that would pay $55 a share in cash if it closed.

Education

5. Signature moves: are we losing the ability to write by hand? (Guardian)

The Common Core State Standards for education in the US, which outline the skills students are expected to achieve at each grade level, no longer require students to learn cursive writing. Finland removed cursive writing from its schools in 2016, and Switzerland, among other countries, has also reduced instruction in cursive handwriting. One assessment claimed that more than 33% of students struggle to achieve competency in basic handwriting, meaning the ability to write legibly the letters of the alphabet (in both upper and lower case). “We’re trying to be realistic about skills that kids are going to need,” said one school board member in Greenville, South Carolina. “You can’t do everything. Something’s got to go.” Children who cannot write in cursive also can’t read it.

Schoolchildren are not the only ones who can no longer write or read cursive. Fewer and fewer of us put pen to paper to record our thoughts, correspond with friends, or even to jot down a grocery list. Instead of begging a celebrity for an autograph, we request a selfie. Many people no longer have the skill to do more than scrawl their name in an illegible script, and those who do will see that skill atrophy as they rely more on computers and smartphones. A newspaper in Toronto recorded the lament of a pastry instructor who realised that many of his culinary students couldn’t properly pipe an inscription in icing on a cake – their cursive writing was too shaky and indistinct to begin with.

The skill has deteriorated gradually, and many of us don’t notice our own loss until we’re asked to handwrite something and find ourselves bumbling as we put pen to paper. Some people still write in script for special occasions (a condolence letter, an elaborately calligraphed wedding invitation) or dash off a bastardised cursive on the rare occasions when they write a cheque, but apart from teachers, few people insist on a continued place for handwriting in everyday life.

But we lose something when handwriting disappears. We lose measurable cognitive skills, and we also lose the pleasure of using our hands and a writing implement in a process that for thousands of years has allowed humans to make our thoughts visible to one another. We lose the sensory experience of ink and paper and the visual pleasure of the handwritten word. We lose the ability to read the words of the dead.

We are far more likely to use our hands to type or swipe. We communicate more but with less physical effort, forgetting the vast evolutionary history that fitted us for physical movement and expression as a means of understanding our world.

Energy

6. New York to Build One of First U.S. Nuclear-Power Plants in Generation (WSJ)

New York intends to build a large nuclear-power facility, the first major new U.S. plant undertaken in more than 15 years and a big test of President Trump’s promise to expedite permitting for such projects.

Gov. Kathy Hochul said in an interview that she has directed the state’s public electric utility to add at least 1 gigawatt of new nuclear-power generation to its aging fleet of reactors. A gigawatt is roughly enough to power about a million homes.

The project could help jump-start a new era of U.S. nuclear-reactor construction. The nuclear industry has struggled for more than three decades to do much more than manage existing plants because of safety concerns, huge cost overruns and permitting processes that move at a glacial pace.

Politics

7. The Young College Grads Who Propelled Mamdani to Victory in New York (WSJ)

Zohran Mamdani, New York’s unlikely new Democratic candidate for mayor, ran on a socialist platform promising to uplift New Yorkers with rent freezes, city-owned grocery stores, and free bus rides. He was propelled to the Democratic primary in a stunning upset by a group of economic rebels just as unlikely: young, educated New Yorkers, many of them white.

Their support of 33-year-old Mamdani is rooted in deep economic frustrations that for decades plagued the working classes of the city. Now that frustration has become acute among college-educated earners, who battle steep rents and the lowest housing availability in more than half a century.

The inflation that has driven up costs nationwide has been particularly stubborn in the New York metro area. New York saw lower inflation than other parts of the country immediately after the pandemic, but over the past two years that has reversed. Consumer prices rose 7.5% between May 2023 and May 2025, well above the national rate of 5.7%, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The median rent for a two-bedroom apartment in New York City rose by 15.8% in the past year, to $5,500, according to listing site Zumper. That was the fastest increase among U.S. cities.

Mamdani’s buzzy campaign won the city’s Democratic mayoral primary on Tuesday by making the city’s cost of living its top issue. Young, college-educated voters who are worried about making a future for themselves in the city were receptive.

Personal Finance

8. Choosing ‘Buy Now, Pay Later’ at Checkout Will Now Factor Into Your Credit Score (WSJ)

Credit scores will start to take into account the hundreds of millions of loans tied to the “pay later” option at checkout. Fair Isaac Corp., the company behind the most widely used U.S. credit score, said Monday that it would roll out a new model that factors into its scores the “buy now, pay later” loans used to finance everything from Gucci belts to groceries.

It is the first time FICO has ever introduced a score to account for a type of loan, according to Ethan Dornhelm, vice president of scores and predictive analytics at FICO.

9. How Coupons Became Passé, Even in a High-Price World (WSJ)

Coupons, in short, are no longer cool—not even to the people who used to love them.

RRD, a marketing and commercial-printing services company, calculates that marketers distributed 50 billion coupons last year, down from more than 330 billion in 2010.

About 750 million coupons were redeemed last year, the company estimates, down from 3.3 billion in 2010. The huge majority of coupons that get distributed today, about 87%, are still on paper, but nearly two-thirds of coupons actually redeemed are digital.

10. More Homeowners Find Themselves Underwater (WSJ)

Homeowners who bought around the peak of the market are increasingly finding they owe more on their mortgages than their properties are worth.

The number of owners who are underwater is small but growing, and they have recently been concentrated in pandemic boomtowns such as Austin, Texas, and Cape Coral, Fla. A rapid rise in prices in these areas was followed by drops of almost 20% in some of them. Those who bought at the top have seen value slip out of their homes since then.

A typical decade’s worth of home-value growth was packed into just five years, starting in 2020, said Kara Ng, a senior economist at Zillow. Housing demand was driven by a perfect blend of low mortgage rates, high consumer savings and more people desiring larger spaces. Just about every major market experienced robust price growth, but the trend was turbocharged in some Sunbelt cities where remote workers flocked during the pandemic.

The record-fast growth cooled off around when mortgage rates began to rise in 2022 and affordability became stretched. A construction boom added supply to meet demand. There is now a more balanced market between buyers and sellers.

11. A record number of millionaires are upping sticks this year (Sherwood)

As the world’s millionaire count continues to tick up — with the global millionaire population rising by more than 684,000 to ~60 million last year, per UBS estimates — it follows that a growing number of seven-figure club members are moving to pastures that would better help keep them in the green.

Earlier this week, Henley & Partners released its annual Private Wealth Migration Report for 2025, which outlined that 142,000 millionaires, the highest number ever recorded, are expected to gain citizenship in another country this year. Next year, this number is expected to rise to 165,000.

According to Henley, this “mass movement of millionaires” marks the largest voluntary transfer of capital in modern history. With this comes a “profound shift in economic influence,” as regions with large inflows of millionaires enjoy new pools of investable wealth.

Space

12. World’s Largest Digital Camera Snaps Its First Photos of the Universe (WSJ)

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory on Monday released its first dazzling images of deep space in a preview of the cosmic movie the pioneering probe was built to create.

The U.S.-funded observatory, perched in an area of the Chilean Andes known for exceptionally dark skies, is equipped with the world’s largest digital camera and a 27.5-foot mirror that can capture light too faint for other telescopes to see.

Together, the photos will create a dynamic time-lapse record of the southern sky—essentially a vast celestial flipbook that is expected to document 38 billion objects, from galaxies and stars to black holes and supernovae.

The project, dubbed the Legacy Survey of Space and Time, is slated to begin later this year. It will advance four science goals: inventorying the solar system, mapping the Milky Way, cataloging billions of transient space objects and unlocking the mysteries of dark matter and dark energy.

AI & Tech

13. Federal judge rules copyrighted books are fair use for AI training (NBC)

A federal judge has sided with Anthropic in a major copyright ruling, declaring that artificial intelligence developers can train models using published books without authors’ consent.

The decision, filed Monday in U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California, sets a precedent that training AI systems on copyrighted works constitutes fair use. Though it doesn’t guarantee other courts will follow, Judge William Alsup’s ruling makes the case the first of dozens of ongoing copyright lawsuits to give an answer about fair use in the context of generative AI.

14. China unveils mosquito-sized drone (Telegraph)

At first glance, the tiny object – barely the size of a human fingernail – looks like a toy. Made to resemble a mosquito, it has two yellow, leaf-like wings, a black vertical body and three hair-thin legs.

The apparatus in question, developed by scientists at a university in China’s central Hunan province, is far from a plaything, however: it’s a new drone with a wide range of military and civilian uses.

Experts told The Telegraph that while the size of the drone might make it difficult to use on the battlefield, it has plenty of valuable and possibly dangerous uses for information gathering.

Have a great week!

The Curator

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World News

1. Israel's overnight strike on Iran in maps and images (BBC)

Israel has hit Iran with its biggest wave of air strikes in years, targeting the country's nuclear programme, and is promising to continue its attacks.

Senior military figures and nuclear scientists were killed in the overnight strikes and there are unconfirmed reports that civilians, including children, were also among the victims. In response, Iran launched about 100 drones towards Israel, most of which were intercepted, according to the Israeli military.

Israel said it had launched a another wave of strikes on Friday evening, with reports of more explosions in Iran, but the scale of that attack and the damage caused is not yet clear.

NOTE: Speaking of Iran, there’s also this going on:

2. ‘Dog Walking Is a Clear Crime’: Iran’s Latest Morality Push (NYT)

When Iran banned dog walking in 2019, few dog owners were all that worried about the order. But after years of lax enforcement, officials in recent days have pledged to crack down, according to the state news media.

Prosecutors in at least 20 cities cited public health risks and threats to public safety in announcing the heightened enforcement of the bans, which include both dog walking and driving with dogs.

“Dog walking is a clear crime,” Mohammad Hossein Doroudi, the prosecutor in Mashhad, told reporters on Monday as he announced that city’s plan, according to IRNA, a state-owned news outlet.

Iran’s government has also long seen pet dogs as a sign of Western cultural influence. And much of the opposition to dogs in Iran stems from religious beliefs, with dogs considered to be “najes,” or impure, in Islam.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, had issued a fatwa, or religious order, explaining the logic: A dog’s saliva or hair would render anything it touched — like a person, clothing or a surface — impure.

“Prayer is invalid with the presence of dog hair,” his fatwa read.

Economy

3. How the U.S. Government Borrows to Fund Its Massive Budget Shortfall (WSJ)

The U.S. government’s growing debt is raising alarm among top financial leaders, who warn of significant economic risks if the trend continues. With spending far outpacing revenue, the government is relying heavily on borrowing—primarily through the issuance of Treasury securities—to cover budget deficits. In 2024 alone, the federal deficit reached $1.8 trillion, and total outstanding Treasurys have ballooned to nearly $29 trillion, almost double what they were eight years ago. These securities, ranging from short-term bills to 30-year bonds, form the backbone of global financial markets and influence everything from mortgage rates to corporate borrowing.

What’s driving new concern is that the government continues to borrow as though in crisis, despite relatively stable economic conditions. This suggests a structural imbalance in federal finances. Compounding the issue is growing anxiety about whether there will be enough demand—especially from foreign investors—to absorb the flood of new debt. Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasurys have declined, with hedge funds stepping in as major buyers, though they are considered less stable due to their reliance on borrowed money. If investor appetite falters, borrowing costs could rise across the economy, heightening the risk of financial strain or market disruption.

The yields on Treasurys set a baseline on borrowing costs across the economy because the U.S. government, for all its challenges, is still seen as the safest borrower around. The yield on the 10-year note, in particular, is a major determinant of 30-year mortgage rates.

4. I Tried To Make Something In America (The Smarter Scrubber Experiment) - Smarter Every Day 308

NOTE: Good video from Destin, at Smarter Every Day, showing just how hard it is to make something in the US.

5. Unemployment Rates for Recent College Graduates versus Other Groups (Fed)

NOTE: Not a good trend for that light blue line.

Education

6. Cram schools for kindergartners are the latest in South Korean college prep (WP)

South Korea has long been notorious for its hothouse education system, where kids go from classes at middle or high school straight to after-hours tutoring at cram schools, often until 10 or 11 p.m.

These private programs prepare students for extremely difficult college entrance exams. Getting into an elite university is often seen as the golden ticket to a stable career at a top-tier company or government ministry.

But the race to the top schools is intensifying amid a widening income gap, fueling parents’ anxieties about their children’s future job security, experts say.

As a result, some parents think it’s never too early to start preparing for college. Nearly half of children under 6 are now receiving some type of private education, most commonly English classes, according to a government survey released in March.

These niche programs have become increasingly popular in the most affluent areas of Seoul, where some families shell out upward of $1,400 for the classes and related fees every month. They are now spreading throughout the country and gaining attention from the broader public, sparking debate over South Korea’s cutthroat education system and the private education boom.

These early-childhood English classes are usually taught by native English speakers, like Schnabel, who teaches at Twinkle English Academy in the affluent Seoul neighborhood of Mokdong.

By the end of this program, they will write two-page essays with an introduction, three body paragraphs and a conclusion — the skill level of an American third-grader.

Doing well in cram kindergarten will help them get into an elite cram school in first grade.

Those places have long wait lists for prospective first-graders, who are required to take entrance exams. A recent documentary by the broadcaster KBS found some of the entrance tests are at the English and math level of high school freshmen.

7. Judge OK's $2.8B settlement, paving way for colleges to pay athletes (ESPN)

Schools are now free to begin paying their athletes directly, marking the dawn of a new era in college sports brought about by a multibillion-dollar legal settlement that was formally approved [Jun 6].

The NCAA will pay nearly $2.8 billion in back damages over the next 10 years to athletes who competed in college at any time from 2016 through present day. Moving forward, each school can pay its athletes up to a certain limit. The annual cap is expected to start at roughly $20.5 million per school in 2025-26 and increase every year during the decade-long deal. These new payments are in addition to scholarships and other benefits the athletes already receive.

CYBER

8. Meta Aims to Fully Automate Ad Creation Using AI (WSJ)

AI-powered advertising is part of Meta Chief Mark Zuckerberg’s grand vision for his company’s evolution. Advertising makes up the bulk of Meta’s business—it brought in more than 97% of overall revenue in 2024—and funds its multibillion-dollar investments in AI chips and data centers, and for training cutting-edge AI models.

Using the ad tools Meta is developing, a brand could present an image of the product it wants to promote along with a budgetary goal, and AI would create the entire ad, including imagery, video and text. The system would then decide which Instagram and Facebook users to target and offer suggestions on budget, people familiar with the matter said.

9. YouTube has taken down 220 million videos since 2018 (Sherwood)

According to a report from The New York Times on Monday, YouTube’s content moderation policies have been quietly relaxed after more lenient new guidelines were introduced in mid-December.

Alphabet’s video platform — which reportedly supported 490,000 jobs and contributed $55 billion to the US economy last year — joins Meta platforms and Elon Musk’s X in revising its approach to content moderation. Unlike those two, however, YouTube hasn’t made any public statement about the move, though a spokesperson told the Times that it continuously updates its guidance for moderators.

YouTube workers are now advised to keep policy-contravening content up if it’s in the public interest and less than half of the video breaks the site’s code of conduct; previously, that threshold was a quarter of the video. Videos are in the public interest if creators “discuss or debate elections, ideologies, movements, race, gender, sexuality, abortion, immigration, censorship and other issues,” the Times reported from training materials it accessed.

Google’s quarterly transparency report shows that millions of videos are still taken off YouTube every single month.

In Q1 2025, the first quarter after YouTube’s new policies had come into play, the site took down some 8.6 million videos for breaching community guidelines. Worryingly, over half of those videos were removed for breaking YouTube’s child safety terms, though almost 55% of the content was actioned before it received a single view, thanks to YouTube’s automatic flagging system.

Indeed, when automated flagging is taken out of the YouTube moderation picture, there’s not actually all that much left. From the start of 2018, just ~19.9 million video removals came from human detection, with more than 90% stemming from the site’s AI-powered moderation system, which has been accused of being a little trigger-happy in the past.

Life

10. The stunning decline of the preference for having boys (Economist)

Without fanfare, something remarkable has happened. The noxious practice of aborting girls simply for being girls has become dramatically less common. It first became widespread in the late 1980s, as cheap ultrasound machines made it easy to determine the sex of a fetus. Parents who were desperate for a boy but did not want a large family—or, in China, were not allowed one—started routinely terminating females. Globally, among babies born in 2000, a staggering 1.6m girls were missing from the number you would expect, given the natural sex ratio at birth. This year that number is likely to be 200,000—and it is still falling.

The fading of boy preference in regions where it was strongest has been astonishingly rapid. The natural ratio is about 105 boy babies for every 100 girls; because boys are slightly more likely to die young, this leads to rough parity at reproductive age. The sex ratio at birth, once wildly skewed across Asia, has become more even. In China it fell from a peak of 117.8 boys per 100 girls in 2006 to 109.8 last year, and in India from 109.6 in 2010 to 106.8. In South Korea it is now completely back to normal, having been a shocking 115.7 in 1990.

People prefer girls for all sorts of reasons. Some think they will be easier to bring up, or cherish what they see as feminine traits. In some countries they may assume that looking after elderly parents is a daughter’s job.

However, the new girl preference also reflects increasing worries about boys’ prospects. Boys have always been more likely to get into trouble: globally, 93% of jailbirds are male. In much of the world they have also fallen behind girls academically. In rich countries 54% of young women have a tertiary degree, compared with 41% of young men. Men are still over-represented at the top, in boardrooms, but also at the bottom, angrily shutting themselves in their bedrooms.

FOR FUN

11. Why the Goodyear Blimp Hasn’t Been Replaced by Drones (NYT)

For the past 70 years, the Goodyear blimp has been as ubiquitous in the sports world as the national anthem. The tiremaker’s small fleet of blimps have floated above football games, NASCAR races, golf tournaments and other events, providing aerial coverage to networks and signaling to fans that a sports spectacle is underway.

Goodyear’s relationship with television networks and event organizers is a unique and enduring sponsorship. Since 1955, when NBC asked Goodyear to provide live video coverage of the Rose Parade and Rose Bowl, the company has sent live images of games and events to television producers in return for mentions of the company’s name and logo during the broadcasts. These “blimp pops” run about once an hour and can be worth millions of dollars in ad time.

NOTE: Fun write-up about the blimps, how they work, who mans them, and what changes they’ve made (with pictures). Here the 11 (only!) people who are trained to pilot the Goodyear blimps:

12. Pope Leo XIV rocks White Sox hat at the Vatican in new photos (NY Post)

Pope Leo XIV brought his White Sox fandom to the Vatican on Wednesday.

While holding a general audience in St. Peter’s Square, the Chicago-bred pontiff was photographed wearing a black White Sox cap as he greeted onlookers, including a bride and groom who appeared to be fellow fans of the AL Central club.

Pope Leo XIV’s sports allegiances were thrust into the spotlight in May when he made history after being elected the first American pope. He succeeded Pope Francis, who died in April at the age of 88 after a lengthy battle with double pneumonia.

NOTE: Meet the new Pope, [not the] same as the old Pope.

Enjoy your weekend!

The Curator

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The U.S. economy, which weathered false recession alarms in 2023 and 2024, is entering another uncomfortable summer. Job growth held steady in May, with the economy adding 139,000 jobs. The unemployment rate has stayed in a tight range, between 4% and 4.2%, over the past year. But there are cracks beneath the surface. Businesses are warning that constantly shifting trade policies are interfering with their ability to plan for the future, leading to hiring and investment freezes. Policy uncertainty has unfolded against the backdrop of an economy with slower job growth and a cooling housing market. Compared with last year, the Federal Reserve is more reluctant to cut interest rates because officials are worried about new inflation risks.

2. Americans Are Finally Saving Almost What They’re Supposed to for Retirement

Workers are putting away a record share of their income for retirement. The average savings rate in 401(k) plans rose to a record high 14.3% of income in the first three months of this year, according to a Fidelity Investments analysis of the millions of accounts it manages. That is just a shade below the 15% annual savings rate financial advisers often recommend over a four-decade career. Savings rates are increasing even though account balances fell in volatile markets earlier this year.

3. Worried About Decapitations? Life360 App Monetizes Parents' Worst Fears

Did you catch the new ad for the Life360 tracking app? Kidnapping! Wood-chipping! Organ-snatching! Road-tripping! The mom sings all the ways her daughter could die, each with a cartoon visual of bloody, severed organs, limbs, and heads. SO MANY severed heads. And such a perfect example of how our culture is driving parents crazy.

At this point, most of us above age 30 can still remember growing up without our parents knowing where we were every second. We waved goodbye and somehow they didn’t have a nervous breakdown. They trusted us to go places, deal with minor problems, even wait at the bus stop without them, if you can imagine. This trust also allowed them to chill.

But fear sells. So even though the crime rate today is LOWER than when most of us were kids (lower against kids AND grownups), today’s parents have grown up on a steady diet of doom. Some of this came from Law & Order. Some from local news, always chasing crime. And some came from the tsunami of “safety products” that amp up remote dangers in order to sell us the antidote.

The result is parents so force-fed fear that they can’t let their kids do almost anything on their own. A University of Michigan study found that the majority of parents of kids age nine to 11 won’t even let them play at the park with a friend, or trick or treat. Only 50% let them leave their side at the store to venture to another aisle.

Tweens are the new toddlers. As a result, parents are stuck always watching their kids. And kids are stuck always being watched. That’s not only unnecessary, it’s driving both generations nuts.

NOTE: Here’s the cringe-worthy Life 360 Video:

NOTE: The following are referenced in the full article:

Murders Plunge

The last year was often tumultuous and chaotic, but it ended with good news: Murders and crime in general declined across the country throughout 2024.

Reported violent crime rate in the United States from 1990 to 2023

NOTE: Yes, folks, despite what you might feel from the 24-hour news cycle, it is safer now in the US than it has been in decades.

4. Report: Media Use by Kids Zero to Eight

As technology continues to reshape every aspect of our society, it is more crucial than ever to understand its influence on our youngest generation. We are excited to share the latest edition of the Common Sense Census: Zero to Eight, which provides the first comprehensive look since the pandemic at how children from birth to age 8 are engaging with media and technology.

We see both challenge and opportunity in our latest findings. While 75% to 80% of parents express concerns about screen media's impact, three-quarters also recognize the potential for learning and connection. This tension—balancing technology's risks with its benefits—defines the modern parenting experience. Parents of young children face the dual challenge of navigating screen media use and preserving fundamental childhood experiences like daily reading, which has declined from 64% to 52% among 5- to 8-year-olds since 2017, even as overall screen time remains steady.

The report highlights the convergence of early childhood and technology. Screen time is no longer just a mainstay of children's entertainment and education—it's now an integral part of daily activities for many families. We found that 1 in 5 families now use mobile devices to help manage their child's bedtime routines, mealtimes, and emotional regulation.

5. OPINION | The Democrats’ Problems Are Bigger Than You Think

I have a lot of Democratic friends who are extremely disappointed with their party leaders. They tell me that the Democratic Party is currently rudderless, weak, passive, lacking a compelling message. I try to be polite, but I want to tell them: “The problem is not the party leaders. The problem is you. You don’t understand how big a shift we’re in the middle of. You think the Democrats can solve their problems with a new message and a new leader. But the Democrats’ challenge is that they have to adapt to a new historical era. That’s not something done by working politicians who are focused on fund-raising and the next election. That’s only accomplished by visionaries and people willing to shift their entire worldview. That’s up to you, my friends, not Chuck Schumer.”

There have been only a few world-shifting political movements over the past century and a half: the totalitarian movement, which led to communist revolutions in places like Russia and China and fascist coups in places like Germany; the welfare state movement, which led in the U.S. to the New Deal; the liberation movement, which led, from the ’60s on, to anti-colonialism, the civil rights movement, feminism and the L.G.B.T.Q. movement; the market liberalism movement, which led to Ronald Reagan, Margaret Thatcher and, in their own contexts, Deng Xiaoping and Mikhail Gorbachev; and finally the global populist movement, which has led to Donald Trump, Viktor Orban, Brexit and, in their own contexts, Narendra Modi, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.

Many of my Democratic friends have not fully internalized the magnitude of this historical shift. They are still thinking within the confines of the Clinton-Obama-Biden-Pelosi worldview. But I have a feeling that over the next few years, the tumult of events will push Democrats onto some new trajectory.

NOTE: Though David Brooks’ opinion piece is focused on Democrats, I think there are astute observations and lessons that apply to both parties (and really society itself).

And now for some lighter fare…

6. Most Leaders Don't Even Know the Game They're In | Simon Sinek

Trust and cooperation are not standard in our organizations and yet we know they should be. There are two attributes that every single leader has the opportunity to possess that will help them create the types of organizations we would be proud to call our own. Those two attributes are empathy & perspective.

NOTE: Simon Sinek gives a great talk on leadership, society, generational differences and more. It’s really hard to believe that he gave this talk nine(!) years ago. It was a prescient warning…yet things only got worse. Lots of good nuggets here.

7. Austin Dethroned as Millionaires Flock to Arizona City

The desert city of Scottsdale, Arizona, has become the fastest-growing millionaire hub in the nation over the Texas capital, Austin, which only last year ranked first in Henley & Partners' list of U.S. metros attracting the ultra-wealthy. The former pandemic boomtown of Austin, which has been experiencing a dramatic correction over the past couple of years, has fallen out of the top five in Henley & Partners' latest report on the fastest-growing wealth hubs in the U.S., though it remains one of the richest metros in the country.

8. Human Spaceflight Mission Patches

Gallery of human space flight mission patches from Project Mercury, Project Gemini, Project Apollo, the Shuttle Program, the International Space Station Expeditions, and SpaceX Crew Missions.

NOTE: I stumbled across this site after doing some research on Apollo 8 and the famous “Earthrise” photo (learn more here). Below are some of my favorite patch designs.

With regard to Earthrise, it is normally shown like this, with the moon’s surface near-horizontal:

But, it was actually taken in orientation below, and then rotated into what you see above. To me, this original version is so much better. In space, there’s no up or down, which, to me, makes this orientation that much more disorienting and powerful.

9. Moon Replaced with Other Planets

This visualization shows how the night sky could look like to a human observer if our Moon was replaced by some of the other planets and moons in the solar system, namely Vesta, Ceres, Pluto, Triton, Europa, Io, Callisto, Mercury, Titan, Ganymede, Mars, Venus, Earth, Neptune, Uranus, Saturn and Jupiter.

NOTE: Below is just one of the fun visualizations this site provides (there are many others).

Have a great week!

The Curator

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Dario Amodei — CEO of Anthropic, one of the world's most powerful creators of artificial intelligence — has a blunt, scary warning for the U.S. government and all of us:

AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs — and spike unemployment to 10-20% in the next one to five years, Amodei told us in an interview from his San Francisco office.

Amodei said AI companies and government need to stop "sugar-coating" what's coming: the possible mass elimination of jobs across technology, finance, law, consulting and other white-collar professions, especially entry-level gigs.

Why it matters: Amodei, 42, who's building the very technology he predicts could reorder society overnight, said he's speaking out in hopes of jarring government and fellow AI companies into preparing — and protecting — the nation.

2. North Korea Infiltrates U.S. Remote Jobs—With the Help of Everyday Americans

Christina Chapman looked the part of an everyday American trying to make a name for herself in hustle culture.

In prolific posts on her TikTok account, which grew to more than 100,000 followers, she talked about her busy life working from home with clients in the computer business and the fantasy book she had started writing. She posted about liberal political causes, her meals and her travels to see her favorite Japanese pop band.

Yet in reality the 50-year-old was the operator of a “laptop farm,” filling her home with computers that allowed North Koreans to take jobs as U.S. tech workers and illegally collect $17.1 million in paychecks from more than 300 American companies, according to federal prosecutors.

In a June 2023 video, she said she didn’t have time to make her own breakfast that morning—“my clients are going crazy,” she said. Then she describes the açaí bowl and piña colada smoothie she bought. As she talks, at least 10 open laptops are visible on the racks behind her, their fans audibly whirring, with more off to the side.

In 2023, Christina Chapman posted a TikTok that had racks of laptops visible in the background. The Wall Street Journal highlighted the laptops in this clip of the video.

Chapman was one of an estimated several dozen “laptop farmers” that have popped up across the U.S. as part of a scam to infiltrate American companies and earn money for cash-strapped North Korea. People like Chapman typically operate dozens of laptops meant to be used by legitimate remote workers living in the U.S.

What the employers—and often the farmers themselves—don’t realize is that the workers are North Koreans living abroad but using stolen U.S. identities. Once they get a job, they coordinate with someone like Chapman who can provide some American cover—accepting deliveries of the computer, setting up the online connections and helping facilitate paychecks. Meanwhile the North Koreans log into the laptops from overseas every day through remote-access software.

Chapman fell into her role after she got a request on LinkedIn to “be the U.S. face” for a company that got jobs for overseas IT workers, according to court documents. There’s no indication that she knew she was working with North Koreans.

Late last year, Ryan Goldberg, an incident response manager at cybersecurity company Sygnia, got a look at a laptop that was returned to a client—a life-sciences company—after the FBI raided an East Coast laptop farm.

As the MacBook booted up, he was amazed by what he saw: a series of seven custom-written programs designed to get around antivirus software and firewalls, giving the North Koreans a virtually undetectable back door into the corporate network.

One program allowed them to spy on Zoom meetings. Others could be used to download sensitive data without being detected. “The way they were employing remote control was something we’d never seen before,” said Goldberg. “They really thought outside of the box on this.”

3. Federal Workers Are Returning To The Office

Analysis from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, published Friday, revealed that less than 1 in 5 (~18%) federal government workers spent time teleworking or working at home for pay in April, down from ~31% in the same month last year.

4. Immigration Is the Only Thing Propping Up California’s Population

California is growing again because of immigrants like Dhanakeerthi. The state’s population rose 0.6% in 2024, reaching 39.43 million by adding almost a quarter-million people, according to Census Bureau estimates. State leaders say California’s growth belies the narrative that it is in permanent decline. Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, often seen as a potential presidential contender, is publicly touting the population bump.

Yet California’s growth is tenuous. Without immigration, it would have shrunk significantly in the past year. Net immigration rebounded to more than 300,000 people in 2024, after plunging to as few as 44,000 in the worst year of the pandemic.

How President Trump’s immigration policies will affect this growth remains a crucial question.

Migrant crossings along the California-Mexico border have nearly ceased. But California attracts immigrants from all over the world. Since 2010, the state has added 2.7 million immigrants, according to the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey. Fully half have come from Asia, and slightly more than a third from Latin America.

5. America’s Monthly Customs Revenues Hit Another All-Time High in May

US has collected ~$40 billion worth of customs duties since April, but with the US Court of International Trade blocking the majority of President Trump’s tariffs, the government may end up returning the money.

After raking in a record $15.6 billion in customs revenue in April, the Treasury hit a new all-time high again this month, likely from Trump’s 10% baseline tariffs on nearly all imports, with some $22 billion accumulated so far in May. That’s a massive jump from $9 billion back in January, and is likely lower than reality, as the customs-only figure excludes excise taxes on specific imported goods like fuel, alcohol, and tobacco.

6. NYC sees fewest reported murders, shootings in modern history to start year: mayor

New York City has recorded the lowest number of murders and shootings in modern history through the first five months of the year, Mayor Eric Adams announced Sunday.

There were 112 homicides from January through May, one fewer than the 113 recorded in 2014 and 2017, the previous records for the same time period, according to NYPD data obtained by The Post. There were 18 murders reported for the month of May, one fewer than the previous low of 19 recorded in May 2019. Meanwhile, there were 264 shootings for the five months of 2025, three less than the 267 recorded in 2018.

7. The CIA Secretly Ran a Star Wars Fan Site

The site looks like an ordinary Star Wars fan website from around 2010. But starwarsweb.net was actually a tool built by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) to covertly communicate with its informants in other countries, according to an amateur security researcher. The site was part of a network of CIA sites that were first discovered by Iranian authorities more than ten years ago before leading to a wave of deaths of CIA sources in China in the early 2010s.

In November 2018, Yahoo News published a blockbuster investigation into the CIA’s covert communication channels and how they were exposed. That exposure originated in Iran before more than two dozen CIA sources died in China in 2011 and 2012, according to the report. The CIA ultimately shut down the covert communications tool.

In September 2022, Reuters published its own investigation with the headline “America’s Throwaway Spies.” That article showed how, for example, a CIA informant in Iran called Gholamreza Hosseini was identified by Iranian authorities thanks to the CIA’s sloppily put together covert websites. One of the CIA’s mistakes was that the IP addresses pointing to the sites were sequential, meaning that after discovering one, it was straightforward for a researcher to find others very likely in the same network.

8. What the failure of a superstar student reveals about economics

Academic misconduct often triggers a reckoning. In 2015 political scientists grappled with the retraction of a well-publicised article that claimed door-to-door canvassers could lift support for gay marriage. More recently, behavioural science has come under scrutiny: Francesca Gino of Harvard University and Dan Ariely of Duke University have faced investigation over allegedly manipulated data (both deny wrongdoing). Economics has some protection owing to its record. The five leading journals have seen just four withdrawals in their combined 570-year history, according to Retraction Watch, a database.

But even if economics is not the worst offender, it is no stranger to social science’s replication crisis. Its biggest recent trend has been empirical research, with a focus on credible causal designs (see chart). Statistically significant results are prized, incentivising cherry-picking and selective presentation of results. Prashant Garg of Imperial College London and Thiemo Fetzer of the University of Warwick find that the share of papers reporting “null results” fell from 15% in 1980 to 9% in 2023. Use of private data doubled.

9. Targeting Chinese Students Threatens the Bottom Line at American Universities

American universities significantly increased their enrollment of Chinese students in the years following the 2008-09 financial crisis, when many suffered budget shortfalls. Typically, Chinese undergraduates pay full tuition, a critical source of revenue for universities.

One in every four international students comes from China, and Chinese students form a particularly large share of the student body at top U.S. schools. After they graduate, many assume key roles in U.S. science and engineering endeavors.

10. America Let Its Military-Industrial Might Wither. China’s Is Booming.

Adapting to the dual challenge of China’s military and its economy has been a focus of U.S. administrations for years. America is losing ground.

Modern warfare is a contest of industrial might, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shown. Both sides are burning through arsenals of artillery shells, rockets and military vehicles. Automated factories now spit out drones day and night. Even an old-fashioned howitzer requires precision manufacturing.

The U.S. won World War II in part by producing more of everything—from bullets to food—than its enemies. One California shipyard in 1942 assembled a supply ship in less than five days. America is no longer capable of that kind of manufacturing feat.

Today, the country that can make the most of almost everything is China. Its products run the gamut from basic chemicals to advanced machinery. With tensions rising between the U.S. and China, the two countries’ industrial capacity is coming into focus as a key battleground in any conflict.

NOTE: Many, many informative charts in this article.

11. 1 of every 8 clothing items bought in America comes from... Amazon?

When you think of Amazon, you probably don’t think of clothing. You certainly don’t think of fashion. But the famed “everything store” has become just that — and “everything” includes clothing. Wells Fargo estimates that one out of every eight clothing items bought in the US comes from Amazon.

Even Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder and one of the richest men on the face of the Earth, seems into Amazon’s fits: He was virally panned for wearing what appeared to be a $12 butterfly print shirt from the e-commerce giant to Coachella in 2023.

Amazon sold an estimated $68 billion of apparel and footwear in the US in 2023, according to Ike Boruchow, an equity analyst at Wells Fargo. “This represents a highly impressive 13.2% share of all apparel sold in the U.S. and 41.4% share of all apparel sold online,” Boruchow wrote. Amazon’s control of the so-called “softlines” segment of the retail market is bigger than Walmart and TJ Maxx combined.

12. A Lightning Fast Ascent of Everest Is Rocking the Mountaineering World

Four men left London’s Heathrow Airport for Nepal on a May afternoon. Within five days, they were atop Mount Everest, the 29,000-foot peak where an ascent typically takes weeks of acclimatization and bursts of climbing punctuated by rest.

Instead, the four British army veterans prepared for the world’s highest peak using a new pre-acclimatization regime involving inhaling xenon gas—once used as an anesthetic but now more commonly found in rocket propellant.

Their ascent is rocking the mountaineering community and Nepali authorities, with their use of a substance banned from competitive sport by the World Anti-Doping Agency provoking the criticism this amounts to cheating.

Enjoy your week!

The Curator

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